New York governor race bursts into life

The New York governor’s election might be over a year away, but the Republican primary race is already heating up as one ambitious, ex-moderate, pro-Trump New Yorker faces another.

Split the difference. In today’s GOP, even the moderates in the party are staunchly behind President Donald Trump. Both Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), two top candidatesweighing a New York governor run, were moderates when they were elected to the US House – former President Joe Biden even tacitly endorsed Lawler in 2023. The tables have since turned.

Speaking of the United Nations. Trump had picked Stefanik to be the US ambassador to the United Nations, a position that Nikki Haley had during the president’s first term. The Adirondacks congresswoman had even begun her farewell tour, but the president pulled her nomination amid concerns about losing seats in special House elections. Trump has now plucked National Security Adviser Michael Waltz to hold the role.

Who’s out in front? Stefanik, the House Republican Conference chair, leads Lawler by a country mile in the primary, 44%-7%, per an internal poll from the GOP-aligned firm GrayHouse. Still, it is early, and 44% of those surveyed were undecided. Stefanik, who has served in the House for over a decade, has built a far greater following than the Hudson Valley congressman, who is only starting his third year in office, so it’s no surprise that she has a cavernous head start.

A win-win. Stefanik may be taking a risk by relinquishing her leadership position in the House to run statewide in a liberal-leaning state, but her predecessor showed that she can taste some victory even in defeat. Lee Zeldin, the GOP governor nominee in 2022, lost the race by just six points, and his performance was credited with helping to lift candidatesdown the ballot. Now, Zeldin is a member of Trump’s Cabinet, leading the Environmental Protection Agency.

Dems seek Hochul’s head. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’sapproval ratings have been in the dumps, which could create a genuine opening for Stefanik to win. Hochul’s first challenge, though, will be getting past the primary: She will likely facechallenges from Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres.

Mark your calendars. Both primaries are likely going to be scheduled for June 23, 2026.