March 16, 2026
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the escalating US-Israel war with Iran and its ripple effects on global markets and supply chains.
Most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, disrupting the flow of oil, gas, fertilizer, and other critical commodities. Some Iranian oil still reaches global markets via pipelines and Red Sea routes, but “the ability of the United States to reopen it is not there anytime soon,” Ian warns.
The economic fallout is broad, contributing to a global supply shock. “Everyone around the world is going to feel much worse,” Ian says, with poorer countries and those in the Global South most affected.
For President Trump, the conflict also presents serious political and strategic challenges. “He really doesn’t have a way to sell this to the American public,” Ian notes, making a quick resolution increasingly unlikely.
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In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says the US and Iran’s memorandum of understanding to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz marks progress, but warns it falls far short of resolving the broader conflict.
A man holds an Iranian flag on a street, after U.S. and Iranian officials said they had reached a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2026.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS
The United States and Iran said Sunday that they had reached an interim agreement that could end the months-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Officials are expected to sign the deal in Switzerland on Friday, following the G7 summit in France.
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