Podcast: Davos, meet humility: grappling with Russia & egregious violations of international law

TRANSCRIPT: Davos, meet humility: grappling with Russia & egregious violations of international law

Alexander Stubb:

I think we need to start thinking about what is happening in an end of post Cold War era. And my argument is that, I think, the West needs to start becoming a little bit more humble and realize that they're not the main game in the show anymore.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and I'm coming to you today from Davos, Switzerland, home of the 2023 World Economic Forum. And this week for the 53rd time, a tiny town in the Swiss Alps became the epicenter for discussion and debate about some of the biggest issues the world is facing. In total, some 2,700 leaders from 130 countries were here, including 50 heads of state. The big theme of the forum this year; cooperation in a fragmented world. Is it possible? I asked some of the most prominent people here, and I'm bringing you two of those conversations. First up, European diplomat and former Prime Minister of Finland, Alexander Stubb.

Announcer:

The GZERO World podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, understands the value of service, safety and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. GZERO World would also like to share a message from our friends at Foreign Policy. The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women, a podcast from Foreign Policy, is back for season three. This season, you'll hear from reporters around the globe who are covering underreported ways women are challenging the status quo. From justice for domestic migrant workers in Gulf states to how to break down gender barriers in the film industry. Follow and listen to The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women wherever you get your podcasts.

Ian Bremmer:

Alexander Stubb, thanks for joining me again on GZERO World.

Alexander Stubb:

Thanks for having me.

Ian Bremmer:

So I want to start, of course, talking about Russia, Ukraine. We saw literally just hours before Davos starts this year, yet another war crime committed by the Russian government. Reaction to what we've seen in Dnipro and the way the war is proceeding right now?

Alexander Stubb:

Yeah, well, I think the last time we talked I was quite concerned about war fatigue hitting in with inflation, food price, energy price, and people just getting sick and tired of the war. But it is clear that Putin has a knack of changing that just when it counts. And unfortunately he does it in a tragic, brutal way by committing war crimes against civilians as he did this time around. And as long as he continues this, I think the support of the West and the rest of the world is going to be steadfast.

Ian Bremmer:

I mean, we continue to see all sorts of military equipment that's being provided by the West that frankly, even several months ago, wouldn't have been counted and said say, "No, it's too dangerous. It could lead to a greater escalation." What do you think is principally driving that at this point?

Alexander Stubb:

I think it's the wish that Ukraine wins this war. And by victory I mean that we go back to the borders of 2014. So before the annexation of-

Ian Bremmer:

So you mean Crimea as well?

Alexander Stubb:

Exactly. I think that's the only solution that we're looking at at the moment. And in many ways I wish Western leaders, of course it's easier for me to say now as an academic, but Western leaders should use the Mario Draghi phrase from the Euro crisis, "Whatever it takes." Which basically means that you need to provide all equipment possible, because at the end of the day, if Putin gets away with the nuclear threats or whatever he's doing, he's just going to continue to do more of the same.

Ian Bremmer:

Now I understand the argument that everything but Crimea, these the territories taken since February 24th. Crimea of course, historically, and I don't mean historically in the Soviet Union, I mean when Ukraine was independent, was an autonomous region, it was governed locally. It had its own parliament that flew a tricolor that looked a lot like Russia, majority Russians on the ground there. Does that in any way change your view in how it should be handled or do you think it actually needs to be taken militarily?

Alexander Stubb:

No, I mean the way in which I think about it is international rules and norms. And, of course, if you look at Ukrainian independence from 1991, that was when the borders were agreed.

Ian Bremmer:

Yes.

Alexander Stubb:

And if you look at all UN charters, if you look at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Russia signed that charter in 1992. It's about territorial integrity and sovereignty and Russia has violated that. So if we believe in international law and international norms, it also means that Crimea is Ukrainian.

Ian Bremmer:

And so Crimea would be returned to Ukraine, but would still be fully autonomous and self-governing under that strategy.

Alexander Stubb:

Most probably that is the system that would then prevail.

Ian Bremmer:

So my question then is how does one affect that? I understand that one would want that as an outcome that one would negotiate for. You're suggesting, "No, actually Ukraine needs to physically take that." Now also keep in mind, at the time that it was annexed illegally by Russia, there was a Russian base, there still is a Russian base, in the port of Sevastopol, a very important one. Again, what does one do with those circumstances?

Alexander Stubb:

To be very frank, I think the only solution that we have here is a military solution, which basically means that Ukraine needs to push as far as it's possibly can. And then, of course, I think at the end of the day it also means regime change in Russia. Is this going to be easy? Is this going to be short term? The answer to both of those questions is no.

Ian Bremmer:

Now your position, which is supported by many in the Baltic states, many in Poland, frankly not supported by many in otherwise on the continent and also not by the Biden administration. One of the major changes that we've seen over the course of the last 10 months of war is that NATO has gotten a lot stronger, the EU has gotten stronger, we're seeing more coalition integrity. How do you handle an issue like this that has such potential divisiveness within the coalition itself?

Alexander Stubb:

Well, the first observation to make is that the Baltics were right and we were wrong. They were warning about Russian aggression. I warned about it personally in 2008 when I had mediated peace in Georgia together with the Foreign Minister of France. We were too silent after 2014. And now I think the issue is very binary. It's black and white. So we have to follow what the Poles are saying, what the Balts are saying. Of course we'll find some middle ground at the end of the day, but the truth is that I think the whole security balance of Europe has tilted eastbound, and we have to listen to what the border countries to Russia have to say. And remember, Finland has 1,340 kilometers of that border with Russia.

Ian Bremmer:

Absolutely the case. But do you think that coalition politics have the potential, should have the potential, to move the ultimate negotiating position away from what you just said?

Alexander Stubb:

I think they'll have to find a compromise eventually. Of course, when it comes to borders, it is difficult to compromise. But I think the person that we need to listen to this, and I know this is a little bit of an escaping reality, is we have to listen to what Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians want. If their message is, "Borders 1991," then our message should be, "Borders 1991," as well.

Ian Bremmer:

Talk about the Finnish border. Of course, you do have a very long and historically challenging border with Russia and former Soviet Union. Given how poorly the Russians have performed on the ground in the war in Ukraine, does that make you in any way a little less concerned, at least near term, about Finland's border security and national security?

Alexander Stubb:

Well, I think if you have a 1,340 kilometer border with Russia, you always have to be concerned because as we can see, Russia is quite unpredictable. I mean, one of the reasons that we have one of the largest standing armies in Europe with over 900,000 men in reserve and 280,000 that can be mobilized in wartime, is not exactly because we want to defend ourselves against Sweden. It is because there is a real Russian threat. So never underestimate the capacity of Russia's to cause havoc. So in that sense, I think you always have to be wary.

Now, Russia did use to have basically three things that they could threaten all of us with. One was energy. Well, that's almost gone.

Ian Bremmer:

That's gone.

Alexander Stubb:

One was the economy. That's gone.

Ian Bremmer:

That's almost gone.

Alexander Stubb:

And one was military. And we're looking at it, "Well, if you can't even take over Ukraine, why go anywhere else?"

Ian Bremmer:

Talk a little bit about Russia's position globally. Irrespective of the fact that the war continues to grind on, the Russians have lost an enormous amount in terms of geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic standing. As we think longer term, beyond the fighting on the ground in Ukraine, how do we approach that reality?

Alexander Stubb:

Well, probably two answers. One is to say that there is always a way in which great powers rise and fall. And of course we saw the Soviet Union during the Cold War as a superpower and then falling but trying to claw back power. But now it has basically fallen into oblivion. I mean, in many ways it's a rogue state. There's some countries that are calling it a terrorist state. The size of the Russian economy is less than 2% of world GDP. So we're talking about the largest country in the world with the greatest natural resources, which basically hasn't been able to organize itself. And now is isolating itself globally.

Of course, it tries to have allies around, but I would argue that we are very much split. So then we come to point number two, and that is what about the future? I think what we need to look at in terms of European security is a total split. 44 European countries on one side and Russia on the other. Do we begin a conversation to bring them back now? No, we don't. So we're looking at 5, 10, 15, even 20 years of Russian isolation. And someone who is a neighbor to Russia and who has a lot of Russian friends, I find this a sad reality, but a reality nevertheless.

Ian Bremmer:

So it's a generational end of the "peace divident"-

Alexander Stubb:

Oh, definitely. I mean, I look at my grandparents who were fighting in the Winter War, actually 105 days. Fairly similar situation that the Ukrainians are in right now. And then the war of Continuation, we gave up 10% of our land. And that sort of sentiment stayed there. It stayed there for decades. And I would argue there was probably bubbling somewhere under the surface. And now that Russia has attacked Ukraine, boom, it's up there again. So people are actually talking about Russia now in a way in which we haven't seen Finns talk about Russia for decades.

Ian Bremmer:

And also talking about NATO in a way that the Finns have never talked about NATO. Now, the Turks are continuing to slow the application process. How much of that is just because of the upcoming Erdoğan election? Does it go away afterwards? How much of this is actually a structural problem that might cause bigger challenges with the application?

Alexander Stubb:

Well, I would of course hope that this is more of a domestic political situation, but I'm not involved in Turkish politics. Fortunately, Finns and Swedes are fairly calm in these situations. So we're not taking any very major-

Ian Bremmer:

And very aligned and cordial about it.

Alexander Stubb:

Yeah, very aligned. And we don't take knee-jerk reactions. And if you look at the messages from our political leadership, I think it's quite clear that eventually we expect to become full members of NATO, say sometime next summer.

Ian Bremmer:

Finally, talking about the WEF right now, I mean, a little bit less focus on Ukraine, frankly, on the agenda and from the attendees than we saw back in May when you and I were together. How much does that concern you? Also, relevance and how much can come out of the Forum on this issue?

Alexander Stubb:

I think we're looking at a lot of spillover effects from the war in Ukraine. So we're talking about globalization, we're looking at trade. A lot of people are afraid of protectionism. We're discussing the IRA from the United States. Will there be retaliation? We're looking at Chinese presence here, which is quite limited. Only 16, the delegation. We're looking at a rather prominent delegation from India. So it's very much about, I guess, the theme of the whole Davos event; co-operation in a fragmented world. I mean, you and I talk about this a lot, I think we need to start thinking about what is happening in a end of post Cold War era. And my argument is that, I think, the West needs to start becoming a little bit more humble and realize that they're not the main game in the show anymore.

Ian Bremmer:

Alex Stubb, always good to see you, my friend. Thanks a lot.

Alexander Stubb:

Thanks.

Ian Bremmer:

And out of my conversation with the new UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, he took up his official functions as high commissioner in October of 2022.

Volker Türk, good to see you in Davos.

Volker Türk:

Very nice to see you, Ian, in Davos.

Ian Bremmer:

So of course, congratulations on the new post. You have plenty of things on your plate. I'm going to start with the most obvious, which is the Russian War in Ukraine. The UN recently stated that the humanitarian and human rights catastrophe is continuing there. Of course, we see it every day. We saw it with explosions against the apartment building in Dnipro just a few days ago. Can you explain to our viewers what you see happening on the ground from a human rights perspective right now, and also what the UN is trying to do about it?

Volker Türk:

Yeah, so I visited Ukraine. I was there beginning of December. We have had an uninterrupted presence since 2014. So we have been able to really focus on human rights issues for, well, for quite some time.

Ian Bremmer:

Since the war started.

Volker Türk:

Well, since the takeover of Ukraine. And then of course, the trouble in the East. Of course, the work has intensified since 24th February last year. I mean, I was struck by how much the civilians suffer, and I don't think people imagine they're suffering during winter. I mean, we are in Davos. It's very cold here. Can you imagine if you have a blackout, if you have no energy, if you have no heating, what this means for people? And not just one day, but weeks on end. And, I mean, especially the impact on civilian infrastructure is incredible. And these bombardments continue while I was there.

Ian Bremmer:

And the intention of the bombardments is specifically to end electricity for civilian populations.

Volker Türk:

Which is of course a huge issue under international humanitarian law. The other issue is, and I had a chance to visit Bucha and Irpin, which is in the north. It's one of these outskirts of Kyiv.

Ian Bremmer:

Which is where a lot of the war crimes were committed in the early days of the war.

Volker Türk:

Exactly.

Ian Bremmer:

As the Russians were forced to withdraw quickly.

Volker Türk:

Yes. And what my office has documented, in fact, when I was there, we issued a report about documented war crimes, willful killings, disappearances, people being just shot at in the street. So, I mean, that's unfortunately the reality there. And it's a horrible one. And we absolutely need to make sure that reason comes back to the leadership in Russia to make sure that this war ends.

Ian Bremmer:

So Russia recently rejected yet another call by the United Nations to end their illegal invasion of Ukraine. They are, of course, a member of the Security Council. Permanent member. Which according to the UN charter, has the principle obligation to uphold sovereignty in the world order. Should they be removed from the Security Council? And I understand it's an incredibly difficult thing to do. But in your view, do they have a role on the Security Council?

Volker Türk:

Well, I mean, the Security Council when it comes to Ukraine is dysfunctional. Let's put it that way. And it's very clear. Interestingly, the other big organ, the General Assembly, which consists of all 193 member states, has actually seen a real revival because, as a result, the General Assembly has been able to pass a number of resolutions on Ukraine. And I think that's important. Because there are checks and balances within the institutional system to make sure that if on one issue it's not possible to find agreement, you can actually move in another context with the General Assembly on it. Plus, of course, because you mentioned before, operationally the UN is present is helping the Ukrainians on the humanitarian front, on the human rights front, on the development front. And that is also the United Nations.

Ian Bremmer:

It is. It is not the Security Council. We have this ongoing problem.

Volker Türk:

It is not the Security Council. I mean, it's not an issue. I mean, it's going to be very difficult to find a way to make a Security Council functioning when one of the five is violating the charter.

Ian Bremmer:

Absolutely. And let me also ask you, since we're talking about human rights in the war, the Ukrainians have been illegally invaded. Treatment of prisoners also accrues to them. In other words, the Ukrainians still have to abide by international law when it comes to how they are engaging in the fighting, even though they are trying to keep the territory. Do they understand that and how is that playing out?

Volker Türk:

So it was very important for me during my conversations with the Ukrainian government to make sure that there is appreciation for the application of international humanitarian law when it comes to warfare. When you conduct hostilities, human rights law and international humanitarian law applies. There's no way around it. I mean, it's one thing when it comes to the international law side of the charter and the violation of the charter, but it's another thing if it comes to hostilities. IHL applies to all parties, to the war, to the conflict. And that applies also to the Ukrainians.

Ian Bremmer:

And do you find that the Ukrainians are receptive to that message? Are they willing to ensure, do the best that they can, in the fog of war?

Volker Türk:

When I met with the prosecutor general, for example, he told me that they're investigating war crimes. Irrespective of who committed it.

Ian Bremmer:

Lots of other areas in the world where human rights are a massive challenge right now. Afghanistan is one that is on top of my head because, of course, the U.S. withdrew and ended the longest war in American history. It withdrew in part because of a deal that was formed with the Taliban that has seemed to have abrogated every piece of that deal. Treatment of Afghans, in particular, Afghan women, has been absolutely abominable since the Americans have left. Talk a little bit about what the Afghans are facing on the ground. And, again, do you see any capacity for progress?

Volker Türk:

So over a year ago when the Taliban took over essentially the governance of the country, or defacto governance of the country, there was some hope at the beginning that on a number of issues, we would find some progress and it would not be the Taliban that we know from the '90s. And as we saw over the last couple of months, especially in December, one issue after another had become hugely controversial and appalling.

Ian Bremmer:

Can we say this is the same Taliban?

Volker Türk:

I think now we have to confront the truth that we are now dealing with the particularly extreme. I wouldn't even say conservative, because you can't even find a word for it, because there is no country in the world that treats women in the way that Afghanistan does. And the Taliban do. I mean, no access to tertiary education, no access to secondary education. The fact that they're not allowing women to work anymore, even for fundamental humanitarian issues, and for the NGOs is a huge issue. I mean, it gives a picture of what we saw in the '90s.

Ian Bremmer:

Do I understand correctly that women can't work as doctors, but they also can't be seen by male doctors? Is that true?

Volker Türk:

There are exemptions were made in Kabul, but we still have to see. Well, for instance, when it comes to female doctors, because they need to treat other women, because it can't be a man who can treat a woman, they are allowed to work as we understand it. But we need to see how this is being implemented. And I think at the moment, it's a very confused picture.

Ian Bremmer:

So it is at the farthest extreme of human repression that one can possibly imagine.

Volker Türk:

I look at all member states of the United Nations and the treatment of women, Afghanistan is on the top of-

Ian Bremmer:

So what can possibly be done? What can the international community do? What can the United States do, the Chinese? I mean, this is not a powerful country.

Volker Türk:

There needs to be a unified stance that this is not part of the international order, the way you treat women. Well, and then other human rights issues. I mean, let's face it, there are media issues, civics based issues and so forth. But in particular, the treatment of women is abominable.

Ian Bremmer:

So when I look around the world, Syria, South Sudan, Yemen, you were just talking to the Peruvians for example. Again, plenty of things for you to do. Give me a quick rundown of a few of the issues that people should be most aware of as they think about global human rights.

Volker Türk:

So I think it's really important, first of all, to bear in mind that when it comes to war and the prevention of war, that we need to find better ways and means to engage with it again. I mean, we need to make prevention a big issue. We need to find ways and means, and then it comes to development, sustainability. But it comes also to the business communities because we need to analyze what it is that we're doing on a daily basis, including in businesses, multinational companies, with extraction industries. Are they not inadvertently sometimes contributing to some of the social unrest that we see in some countries? I mean, if we look at some of the precious raw materials. Look at DRC, for example. Cobalt.

Ian Bremmer:

Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Volker Türk:

I mean, we need to find a way to engage on some of the root causes, otherwise we will see again the perpetuation of conflict. And there again-

Ian Bremmer:

And this forced child labor, this is slave labor. The worst conditions.

Volker Türk:

This is benefiting also from a system of non-governance, really. Because then you can exploit all kinds of things. And that we see too often. I mean, we had the blood diamond issue in the past with the Kimberley Process, which was a very important one. I think we need to really have a very hard look at how precious raw materials are dealt with in the future, because we will need them for the transitioning economy and for greening our planet, but we need to do it in a responsible way. So as a result, our conversations here at the WEF are very important with the business community.

Ian Bremmer:

Talking to the forced labor issue, of course, among the Uyghurs in China, it's been a difficult one for the UN to work with. Not just the UN, also multilateral organizations need funding from the Chinese. Don't necessarily want to have to squeeze them, pressure them so hard. But we are seeing the United States and the Europeans with significant new regulations against these forced labor practices. Do you think that there is meaningful momentum to address this issue?

Volker Türk:

I think what's happening in Europe is very important, especially in the digital area. You saw the Digital Services Act was passed, Digital Market Act. I think we will see more regulation on these things, because frankly, if we talk to young people today, the future consumers, they all want human rights. Apart from climate action, which is one of their big concerns, human rights is the other big concern. And I think the demand will be much harder for governments to take action on such things.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you feel, when you look at a country like China, you look at a country like the United States, both of whom are critical supporters of the United Nations, does it make it harder for you, as an independent assessor, inspector in a sense, and also voice for these issues in a way that very few other people can, how much does that make your job more challenging to do?

Volker Türk:

I mean, there are geopolitical tensions. There's absolutely no doubt about that. Human rights cannot be the collateral damage of these geopolitical tensions. And it is my role as high commission of human rights with a global mandate to ensure that I'm not part of any instrumentalization of anyone. And that's the big challenge. But, I think, so far we have been successful.

Ian Bremmer:

So tell me a little bit about a good news human rights story.

Volker Türk:

I'm thrilled with the enthusiasm that we see among young people about human rights. I went yesterday to the... I mean, this is a bit technical, but it's an important committee. It's the Convention on the Rights of the Child. And they have a committee, a treaty body, that oversees the implementation of the provisions of the convention. And there is an advisory group consisting of children that actually provide input to this very august body of members of this treaty on issues such as climate change and climate justice and children rights. And I listened yesterday to a very impassioned and substantive contribution from a 16-year-old climate activist from Greenland. And that gives me enormous hope.

Ian Bremmer:

Well, Volker Türk, I know that you have a busy schedule. However, it's very nice to see you.

Volker Türk:

Very nice to see you, Ian.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Like what you've heard? Come check us out at gzeromedia.com and sign up for our newsletter Signal.

Announcer:

The GZERO World podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, understands the value of service, safety and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. GZERO World would also like to share a message from our friends at Foreign Policy. The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women, a podcast from Foreign Policy, is back for season three. This season, you'll hear from reporters around the globe who are covering underreported ways women are challenging the status quo. From justice for domestic migrant workers in Gulf states to how to break down gender barriers in the film industry. Follow and listen to The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women wherever you get your podcasts.

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