Two months after their infamous White House fight, the US and Ukraine announced on Wednesday that they had finally struck a long-awaited minerals deal.
What’s in this deal? Leaked versions of the agreement signal that it creates a joint US-Ukraine investment fund to prospect for Ukraine’s critical minerals.It’s also believed to include US access not just to critical minerals but also to Ukraine’s oil, gas, and energy infrastructure. The minerals include lithium, titanium, and large reserves of graphite, an essential component in the batteries that power electric vehicles. Ukraine also claims significant quantities of rare earth metals that power a wide range of consumer products and high-tech weapons.
Will the deal help end the war? Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued the deal would give Washington a stake in Ukraine’s peaceful future, making it less likely that US President Donald Trump would halt all US support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian invaders. Trump prides himself on his ability to cut big deals and will protect an agreement once signed. The president noted during a press event at the White House yesterday that the US presence in Ukraine “will keep a lot of bad actors out of the country.” That’s clearly what Kyiv is hoping for.
But this deal, however lucrative for the US and useful for a Ukraine desperate to keep Trump onside, doesn’t change the reality that Kyiv and Moscow’s visions for Ukraine’s future are fundamentally incompatible. That said, anything that keeps Washington invested in Ukraine’s defense will be greeted as good news in Kyiv.
One last step. Ukraine’s parliament must still ratify the framework for the deal before it becomes law.
