The hot spots. Africa’s youth has been struggling, with an estimated 26.1% of those aged 15-24 not in employment, education or training as of 2022. At the same time, Africa’s population is the youngest on the planet – and projected to have the greatest growth in the next fifty years. Lack of employment prospects have already spawned Gen Z demonstrations in Kenya and Morocco, and a growing population could exacerbate that trend.
In contrast, many Asian countries, including Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Singapore, are experiencing demographic decline – but employment prospects for youth are also dropping. China’s official youth unemployment rate, which excludes students, reached a peak of 18.9% in August, before declining to 17.3% in October. South Korea’s youth unemployment rate hit 5.3% that same month, due to an increase in young graduates unable to find work. And in Nepal youth unemployment sits north of 20% – a factor in violent youth-led protests that toppled the country’s government in September.
South America is also experiencing high youth unemployment and attendant social unrest. According to the International Labor Organization, the youth unemployment rate is triple that of adults, with 60% of young people employed on the black market, without workplace rights and social protections. This year has seen Gen Z protests hit Peru and Mexico, over corruption, crime, poor job prospects, and the cost of living.
Why are young people failing to find work? From 2020-2023, the COVID-19 pandemic locked millions of young people out of classrooms and first jobs, delaying their entry into the labor market and widening skill gaps. Today, trade wars have caused further economic disruption: countries like Canada and China report layoffs and hiring freezes of young people due to high US tariffs and accompanying economic uncertainty.
But the top reason is AI, which is gobbling up clerical, customer-service and entry-level jobs that used to absorb first-time workers, particularly university graduates.
Some popular disciplines, like computer science, have cratered: a report by the United Kingdom’s National Foundation for Education Research found a 50% decline in job advertisements for software development and IT between 2020 and 2025, with four times as many postings for senior than junior programming roles. Another report by the British Standards Institution surveyed 850 business leaders across the UK, US, France, Germany, Australia, China and Japan: 39% said they had cut entry-level roles and replaced them with AI.
For geopolitics, that means three things. Gen Z protests could multiply, with frustrated out-of-work young people demanding change. If states cannot deliver it, they could clamp down, such as by using digital repression to prevent tech-savvy youth from mobilizing – a tactic already deployed in Nepal, China, and many African nations.
Unemployed young people will also put pressure on migration channels, notably to Europe and North America. Over half of young people in several North African nations report a desire to emigrate. Young Indonesians use the hashtag #JustRunAwayFirst to describe their frustration with domestic job prospects. The UN reported that 72 million international migrants originated from Asia in 2024, 13% more than in 2020, due in part to a sense of “futurelessness.”
The social contract could fray, including in authoritarian states. Prior to 2014, most Chinese believed that inequality was largely the result of individual failings in an ascendant China. By 2023, the majority blamed inequality on unequal opportunities, corruption, and a failing economy. Beijing is reportedly concerned about “involution,” a term that describes the feeling of futility young people feel about their lack of job prospects and ability to afford the “good life.”
