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Pelosi Taiwan visit reflects extremely strong US Congress support
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics:
What are the lasting implications of Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan?
House Speaker this week, Nancy Pelosi, became the highest ranking US government official to visit the island of Taiwan since the 1990s, setting off an enormous controversy within mainland China that prompted them to fire missiles into Taiwanese waters and directly threaten the United States.
The Biden administration reportedly was concerned about the trip, but nonetheless provided Pelosi with the logistical support that the House Speaker asked for in order to get there.
Pelosi's trip served no obvious purpose other than to show the island the extremely strong level of support for them in Congress, so strong, in fact, that several senior members of Congress are considering a new Taiwan Policy Act that would upend the status quo in US-Taiwan relations and potentially lead to even more blowback from China.
The Biden administration has been mostly silent about the visit this week and has been totally silent about the Chinese response out of fear of escalating a tense situation. If China stops its military exercises in the next few days, that can be the last we hear about this incident. But it won't be the last visit to Taiwan, and it won't be the last time tensions flare up in the Strait. Starting next year, you may have more members of Congress trying to travel there to show support for the island, which could prompt an even stronger reaction from the Chinese to deter future visits.
Both parties in the United States are growing increasingly hawkish on China, hoping to deter an invasion of Taiwan. This will be a flashpoint that could endanger cooperation on trade, increase the already intense pressure the US is putting on semiconductor companies to relocate to the US and get out of China, and contribute to the major bad vibes between the countries.
Pelosi's trip made a lot of sense from the domestic angle. Once China criticized it, she really couldn't back down. But in the long run, it will probably be remembered as yet another flashpoint in a rapidly deteriorating relationship.
Editions of Taiwanese newspapers reporting on U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's historic visit to Taiwan.
What We're Watching: Tensions in Taiwan, violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, Erdoğan in Russia
(More) trouble in Taiwan
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are now at their highest level in a quarter-century after China fired ballistic missiles at waters near the self-governing island on Thursday. The launch was part of broader live-fire drills scheduled to conclude on Sunday — Beijing's furious answer to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan earlier this week. So, what might happen next? We're keeping an eye out for three things. First, whether China escalates even further by shooting missiles into waters off eastern Taiwan — thus violating the island's airspace, tantamount to declaring war. (By the way, the Chinese might need a bit of target practice after five projectiles landed inside Japan’s EEZ.) Second, how the drills will impact navigation and trade in the region, with many flights cancelled and cargo ships now avoiding the Taiwan Strait. Third, how the US will respond: 26 years ago Bill Clinton ended the last major US-China standoff over Taiwan in one military fell swoop, but it's unlikely Joe Biden will have the appetite to risk all-out war with China. Sanctions? Strong-worded statements blasting Beijing and supporting Taipei? You bet. But that'll be the end of it. Meanwhile, 23 million Taiwanese people will spend the next few days frantically awaiting China's next move.
Nagorno-Karabakh suffers flareup
Clashes between Armenian and Azerbjani forces reignited this week near the contested enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked region in the South Caucasus. (For a good primer on the conflict, read our explainer here.) Both sides exchanged barbs Thursday and blamed the other side for violating a ceasefire, which resulted in gunfire that reportedly killed three soldiers. Several outlets have reported that Armenian separatists fired on the Azerbaijanis, who then retaliated. This sliver of territory — mostly recognized internationally as belonging to Azerbaijan — has been a flashpoint since it was occupied by Armenian separatists after a bloody war that ended in 1994. In 2020, a weeks-long war between the two sides led to 6,500 deaths and large swaths of territory being handed over to Baku as part of a Russian-backed truce, which includes Moscow keeping some 2,000 “peacekeeping troops'' in Nagorno-Karabakh (Moscow is technically treaty-bound to defend Armenia.) Azerbaijan has recently begun resettling people in the disputed territory, a process it’s calling “The Great Return,” which is clearly rubbing Armenians the wrong way.
Erdogan is first NATO leader to visit Russia since Ukraine war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, on Friday – the first time a NATO leader has visited “Mother Russia” since it invaded Ukraine. In recent months, Turkey has ramped up its diplomatic efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, most notably brokering the recent grain export deal that has seen shipments set sail this week from the port of Odesa for the first time in months. Top of mind for Erdogan will be Syria, where Russia and Iran are on the opposite side of Turkey. Erdogan recently threatened to invade northern Syria to destroy Kurdish militant groups based there, but both Moscow and Tehran have warned him against an invasion. With Russia controlling much of Syrian airspace, Erdogan needs Putin’s permission before he can proceed with any move on Syria. Putin, meanwhile, may be looking to secure economic support in the face of western sanctions, which have battered his economy. Ongoing energy cooperation between the two will also likely be on the agenda, along with the situation in Ukraine, and rising tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh, where both sides have a stake.
Chinese military exercises near Taiwan
China goes ballistic at Taiwan
China fired on Thursday multiple conventional ballistic missiles near Taiwan for the first time since 1996.
The launch was part of the largest-ever live-fire drills by the Chinese military in the area in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the self-governing island earlier this week. Beijing says the missiles hit their targets inside the "exclusion zones" the People's Liberation Army set up in waters surrounding Taiwan after Pelosi confirmed her trip.
The Taiwanese military activated its missile defense systems and scrambled fighter jets. Taipei also claims that Chinese fighter jets and warships briefly crossed the Taiwan Strait demarcation line into its airspace and territorial waters, and that several government websites have suffered cyberattacks. Many international flights in and out of the island have been cancelled.
Meanwhile, the US Navy confirmed that an aircraft carrier and strike group are already near the area, conducting a regular patrol mission in the Philippine Sea.
The last time China fired missiles at Taiwan — to intimidate voters ahead of the island's first fully democratic presidential election — President Bill Clinton responded by ordering two US aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait. Beijing ultimately backed down.But that was more than 26 years ago, when the Chinese military was much weaker.
Will Joe Biden deliver on his recent gaffes/promises and risk war with China to defend Taiwan? Or will he stick to the "strategic ambiguity" of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, in which America commits to helping Taiwan defend itself? Perhaps time for Biden to try to calm things down with Xi Jinping on another Zoom call.
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How China could retaliate after Pelosi's Taiwan trip
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How could China possibly hit back over Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan trip?
Well, it was highly unlikely they were going to interfere with her getting onto the island and ditto with her leaving it. But we've already seen announcements of lots of military exercises all around Taiwan, potentially missile tests going over Taiwan through Taiwanese airspace. That would be unprecedented as a provocation. Beyond that, there have been sanctions already on over a hundred Taiwanese companies that provide food into China. I can certainly imagine more limitations on Taiwanese companies doing business with the mainland. And the real question is, do they change the status quo with Taiwan either economically or diplomatically during the Party Congress coming up where Xi Jinping is supposed to get his third term?
I do believe that we are going to see a significant amount of retaliation. The Chinese were very public and very consistent in their warnings. And it feels like from the Chinese perspective, a great loss of face as Xi Jinping is planning to secure his third term.
But Pelosi decided to go anyway. The Americans have the ability to escalate and hit back. Biden administration has warned the Chinese not to escalate. I do think that the Chinese, given their economic challenges right now, are not looking for a massive crisis. But this is going to significantly deteriorate the relations between two most powerful countries in the world. That's what we are looking at right now.
Will the death of the al-Qaida leader shift the dynamic between the US, Pakistan and the Taliban?
I mean, it's a big deal, of course, for any American president to kill al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaida and critical deputy even back in 9/11, helping to orchestrate the attacks against the United States at that point. I mean, it's a big deal and it's a big deal to the Americans who were able to pull that off with no collateral damage without having any troops on the ground, making you wonder why it was the US had boots on the ground in Afghanistan for such a long time when they were normally there in principle, not to rebuild Afghanistan, but to ensure that the Afghan government were not harboring terrorists that could launch attacks against the US or its ally. So, anyway, I don't think the dynamic changes because the Taliban has obviously been lying as we all knew about not harboring any terrorist. This leader of al-Qaida was in a property that belonged to a deputy of the leader of the Taliban. It's very obvious that they were helping him and fully aware that he was there and there are going to be more attacks I'm sure from the US going forward. The US considers the Taliban government a pariah. They have frozen their reserves.
There's been a lot of humanitarian outcry about that. This clearly justifies the US position and the Taliban not getting any access to their cash going forward. I think the relationship between the US and Afghanistan will continue to be a very much arms length and antagonistic. And to the extent that the Pakistan government is seen as providing some support and engagement for that, even if you don't have strong open diplomatic relations does mean that Pakistan will also continue to be on the wrong side of US policy. And of course, they're much closer to China these days. So that's not much changing, but certainly entrenchment of the existing US policy.
Finally, with California and Illinois joining New York to declare states of emergency over monkeypox, will the US do better to react this time?
It does not seem that way in the sense that the Americans don't have a great testing protocol in place for monkeypox. Vaccines do exist. It took the US a fair amount of time to acquire them. It shouldn't be a state of emergency. This should be something the Americans, if they were really learning lessons from COVID, would've been on top of immediately with an effort to educate, inform, and contain. And that's not where we are, in part because it is a disease that is harder to transmit. And also where there is an effective vaccine that already is in place. And you're not looking at significant lethality. But what if it were? And the answer to that is we'd be in a much worse place. And it's unfortunate to see that on the back of two and a half years of pandemic.
So that's where we are. I hope everyone's well. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
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