Cuba on the brink

Cuba is living through its worst economic crisis in decades. Blackouts, fuel shortages, four-day workweeks, and a mass exodus that has cost the island more than 10% of its population. Trump has made no secret of his ambitions, saying he will have "the honor of taking Cuba." But a military invasion is not on the cards, according to University of Miami historian Michael Bustamante. On this week's episode, he joins Ian Bremmer to break down what is really happening on the island, and what Trump can realistically deliver.

What Trump likely wants is a deal, one that opens Cuba to US investment and tourism, and lets him claim a historic win. The problem is that Cuba has no meaningful political opposition to replace the Castro government, and no equivalent of Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez waiting in the wings.

A purely economic deal may seem like the easy path forward, but it risks disappointing Cuban American voters who were heavily invested in Trump's 2024 election, and putting Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an impossible position with his own community. As Bustamante puts it, Cuba is attractive to Trump "not because of natural resource wealth" but because of "the symbolism of communism, and being able to say that we planted the flag and defeated that thing that no one else could."