In Hungary, Orbán's grip on power is slipping

Hungary's Prime Minister is meeting his close ally, Donald Trump, in Washington today. But despite all of the handshakes and smiles that will be on display, things aren't as rosy back in Budapest.

So let's talk about what both leaders want to get out of the meeting. As with most things in Europe, Russia-Ukraine is going to be a really important talking point, but unlike most leaders in the EU, Orbán is not as keen to end the war. He is very keen to continue importing Russian oil. I think Orbán also wants to demonstrate to Trump that he and other leaders in Europe support Trump's agenda. They share his politics. They subscribe to his worldview and that they can be vectors of influence for Trump within the EU.As for Trump, the consummate deal-maker, he's very keen to sell more liquefied natural gas to Hungary.

But I'm actually a lot less interested in the White House meeting and a lot more interested in what Orbán is leaving behind in Budapest. Orbán is on the verge of losing everything. There's an election in April. And an upstart challenger, actually, one of Orbán's former closest allies, Péter Magyar, has created a new party and looks as if he may topple Orbán's regime.

So what is this challenge today for Orbán? He's faced many opponents before. But unlike those opponents, Péter Magyar also hails from the right. That makes it a lot harder for Orbán to knock him down and say he's a simple liberal and leftist. Magyar has also been able to expose all of the deep-seated economic challenges the average Hungarian is struggling with. Inflation, cost of living, these are issues the Orbán administration has not been able to address.

But think about what this moment means for Europe right now not just for Orbán himself. The far right is ascendant. In France and in Germany, the national rally, the AfD, they are biding their time, hoping that they're going to win power in the very near future. They're going to be looking at Viktor Orbán and his struggles and wondering is he the canary in the coalmine or is he yesterday's news about to fade into obscurity?

All of these ideas are going to be swirling around Viktor Orbán's mind as he meets the most prominent far-right populist Donald Trump in Washington today.