Ian explains that Iran’s swift retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz, including targeting ships and launching drones and missiles at the UAE, wasn’t just about disruption. It was a calculated signal: Tehran is prepared to escalate to keep the strait closed unless a deal is reached, while also deepening divisions among Gulf States.
Ian highlights a growing split in the region. The UAE, aligned with Israel, favors continued pressure on Iran, while Saudi Arabia is pushing for de-escalation and regional stability. “These are very different models,” Ian notes, underscoring how diverging interests are reshaping alliances.
For the US, the options are narrowing. A military response risks broader regional damage, while inaction could fuel further instability and rising oil prices. Ian argues the “least worst outcome” is to wind down the conflict and pursue global negotiations, but he warns that political pressure and sunk costs may push Washington in the opposite direction.
“The likelihood that this ceasefire… breaks down and leads to another round of very serious fighting… looks more likely today,” Ian says.
More For You
Nvidia’s Huang resigns, Bombs threats grip Europe, Spain’s PM gets boost before election
The co-founder of the chipmaking colossus resigned on Thursday, just days after admitting to an affair with a suspected Chinese spy.
Most Popular
Can the US beat China in the AI race without putting democracy itself at risk? Former White House Special Advisor on AI joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Should governments ban young people from social media? Paul Ash of the Christchurch Call Foundation says he has real reservations about age bans but understands why governments are turning to them.