Russian influence at risk across Africa, US puts Mexico’s Sheinbaum in another pickle, US considers taking troops out of Germany

Is Russia losing influence in insurgency-hit Mali?

The Russian-backed Malian army is starting to regain ground following coordinated attacks by terrorist insurgents and Tuareg secessionists over the weekend. On Wednesday, they wrestled back control of a town along the Niger border from Islamic State-linked insurgents. Calm has also returned to the West African state’s central region, as government forces step up their patrols. However, the strikes over the weekend – which only exacerbated Mali’s long-term security crisis – have raised questions about Russia’s ability to retain influence in mineral-rich parts of Africa. The general trade-off has been that Russia offers security protection in return for access to minerals (like gold and lithium). But with insurgents inflicting widespread damage in Mali – they also assassinated the defense minister on Saturday – is Bamako really getting its end of the bargain?

US indictments put Mexico’s president on the spot

The US this weekindicted 10 current and former Mexican officials on drug trafficking charges, alleging they worked with the Sinaloa Cartel, one of the world’s most fearsome and violent drug organizations. The move puts Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum in a very tough spot – many of those indicted are members of her ruling left-nationalist Morena party. Extraditing them northwards would look like a grave capitulation to los gringos,angering many within her party. But refusing to do so would bait the wrath of US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened unilateral military action against cartels in Mexico. Until now, Sheinbaum, a cautious leader who boasts a 70% approval rating in some polls, hasdeftly managed ties with Trump. The next few days may be a critical turning point.

Will the US withdraw troops from Germany?

US President Donald Trump posted on social media yesterday that he was “studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany,” a move that appears to be in retaliation for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggesting on Monday that the Iran war had “humiliated” the United States. This comes as the Pentagon explores punitive actions against the United Kingdom and Spain in connection with the Iran war. The US has many troops in Germany: there were 36,000 active-duty personnel nationwide, as of last December, more than anywhere else in Europe. In fact, you’d have to go back to Nazi-era Germany to find the last time US soldiers weren’t stationed there. Whether or not Trump is being vindictive, there have been doubts for some time about the necessity of having a major US troop presence in Germany. With Berlin rapidly ramping up its defense spending, has the time come for the US to leave?