Ian notes that in this more fragmenting geopolitical landscape, more and more countries are “seeing their own interests as distinct and hindered by, hampered by legacy institutions and affiliations."
Ian argues the move is closely tied to fallout from the war in Iran, which has sharpened divisions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE, more aligned with Israel, favors sustained pressure on Iran’s military capabilities, while Saudi Arabia is focused on post-war stability and regional diplomacy.
“These are very different models,” Ian explains, as two Gulf power centers diverge in how they view Iran and the future of the region. He warns that this split could extend beyond OPEC, reshaping institutions like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
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