What We're Watching

What We’re Watching: EU and India nab trade deal, US tells Ukraine to cede land swap for security guarantees, Social media faces landmark trial

​FILE PHOTO: European Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic and India's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal pose after signing an agreement, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Council President Antonio Costa stand behind them, at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, January 27, 2026.

FILE PHOTO: European Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic and India's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal pose after signing an agreement, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Council President Antonio Costa stand behind them, at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, January 27, 2026.

REUTERS/Altaf Hussain/File Photo

World’s largest economic bloc, most populous nation sign trade deal

After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the European Union and India struck a trade deal that will slash or remove tariffs from nearly 97% of all EU exports to India, and grant preferential entry to the European market for 99% of Indian products. The deal would double the amount of products India buys from the European trade bloc, and expand Indian textile exports. The European parliament and Indian cabinet must now approve the deal. The pact comes weeks after the EU struck a deal with South America’s trade bloc, Mercosur. While his country is not part of this deal, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is eyeing one of his own, as he travels to Beijing today to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Ukraine faces pressure to give up Donbas for security guarantees

The Trump administration has signaled to Ukraine that US security guarantees would depend on Kyiv accepting a peace deal likely requiring it to cede the Donbas region to Russia, a proposition that gives up land beyond the front lines and has consistently been a non-starter for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Washington has also suggested it could provide additional weapons if Ukraine withdrawsew forces from parts of eastern Ukraine it still controls. But the Donbas contains what’s known as Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” so relinquishing it would leave the country far more vulnerable to future attacks even if the security guarantee is iron clad

Social media giants face trial over alleged harms

Is social media like cigarettes? That’s not the exact question that’s being asked of some of the world’s largest platforms at amajor trial that opens today in Los Angeles, but it’s close. The plaintiffs are a group of families who say tech companies are liable for the harm that their products have been shown to cause in children — including depression and other mental health problems. Until now, Big Tech has been shielded from liability by laws which say that platforms aren’t responsible for content that users post on their sites. But this trial — which could see Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg and Instagram chief Adam Mosseri take the stand as early as next week — could challenge that interpretation. Relatedly, France’s National Assembly on Monday advanced a bill to ban social media for anyone under 15 years old, following the controversial example set by Australia late last year.

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Mastercard Economic Institute's Outlook 2026 explores the forces redefining global business. Tariffs, technology, and transformation define an adaptive economy for the year ahead. Expect moderate growth amid easing inflation, evolving fiscal policies, and rapid AI adoption, driving productivity. Digital transformation for SMEs and shifts in trade and consumer behavior will shape strategies worldwide. Stay ahead with insights to help navigate complexity and seize emerging opportunities. Learn more here.