Podcast: Fighting for democracy in "Europe's last dictatorship"

TRANSCRIPT: Fighting for democracy in "Europe's last dictatorship"

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

People will never be able to forget the help that Lukashenko made in Belarus. Thousands of prisoners, thousands of tortured people are waiting for people's help.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello, and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. Here you'll find extended versions of interviews from my show on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer. And today, a look at whether Brussels and sure, Washington, contain Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko after he diverted a flight between two European capitals to arrest a dissident journalist. Will Moscow work to preserve the status quo, or could we eventually see a new and more democratic, because less democratic is not an option, Belarus emerge? I speak to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a former school teacher turned leader of the Belarusian opposition. Let's get right to it.

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Ian Bremmer:

Sviatlana, thank you for joining today. Really appreciate it.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Thank you for invitation.

Ian Bremmer:

Just days ago, dissident Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich, who's now been in police custody since his plane was forced down in Minsk, openly wept in a TV interview, if you can even call it that with state television. And spoke favorably of President Lukashenko. He disavowed you and other opposition allies in the process. I'm wondering how it felt for you to watch that interview.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I watched this interview, but I didn't pay attention to what Roman was saying. I was looking at him just trying to understand how much he was tortured, under what conditions he's speaking. So, we are not discussing the content of this interview. We have no moral right to discuss such things because we know how those who are in prison are made to speak anything regime once. So our task not to discuss this, but to discuss how to release Roman, and how to release other political prisoners.

Ian Bremmer:

And I mean, it looked like he had bruises, he had some deep marks on his wrists. I mean, again, you know him well. Anything as you were watching this? I mean, truly a sickening spectacle that came out of your home country. Talk to me about what you noticed and how you react.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I saw that there was a fight in Roman, because for sure he didn't want to tell anything he told. But, he could be threatened different ways, with his girlfriend, I don't know, with any other reasons, he could be harshly tortured, and we don't blame anybody who in the hands of regime. Their task is to survive at this moment.

Ian Bremmer:

What do you think with... It's so obvious to anyone outside of Belarus what is happening with these forced hostage videos. What do you think the President of Belarus is trying to accomplish with them? I mean, do you think it's just about public relations or is it something broader than that?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

First of all, these videos are watched by propaganda people, by small amount of people who are supporting regime, who are made to support regime. And he wants, first of all, to quarrel ask quarrel people who are fighting against regime, and just to make other people to blame Roman, that he betrayed everybody, that he told everything he knew. But, he failed. I mean, regime failed, because nobody is blaming Roman in this interview.

Ian Bremmer:

You, yourself, flew on the same flight path through Belarusian airspace. Why do you think they decided to take his plane hostage and not yours?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I flew a week before Roman's flight, and I really don't know. It was the situation when we changed the tickets very fast. We were supposed to fly with another flight. Maybe, this didn't give them chance to prepare. But, we can speculate on this a lot. But, we don't know if it was really an attempt to kidnap me. We don't have evidence. Maybe, Roman was target. We don't know.

Ian Bremmer:

I mean, you clearly knew that you were flying through Belarusian airspace. Did you think at all, even for a moment, maybe this is something that might be dangerous? Was it conceivable to you that the Belarusian government such as it is, would take this action?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

At that moment, when we bought the tickets, we didn't think about safeness because we are flying above Belarus. Because, we knew we are flying from one European country to another and we couldn't imagine that regime could cause international scandal just to kidnap one person. We were shocked. We were really shocked. And we see consequences for regime, that he gained with this hijacking.

Ian Bremmer:

I mean, the story in so many ways seemed not just tragic but also, ludicrous in the United States. You know that the Belarusian government had announced that there was a bomb threat by Hamas against the airplane. Which, I mean, no one at its face could possibly believe that that was true. Again, do you think the Belarusian government knows that and just doesn't care? They're trying to effectively troll the international population by saying, "We have control and you can't do anything." Or, did they actually think that that excuse might carry some water and they really have no sense of what the rest of the world thinks?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I'm sure regime cares about what the world thinks, but he pretends that he doesn't mind. Regime now in such situation, when it is cornered, and regime doesn't think strategically, it thinks emotionally, and just because of the sense of revenge to one person, they didn't think in future. They didn't think what consequences they will have because of the situation. They blamed Hamas, they blamed Switzerland, or whoever else, but not themselves. It's usual for them to blame everybody, because in the situation in Belarus, it is now revolution, people uprising. They are blaming everybody, Lithuania, Russia, at the beginning, Poland, the USA, and everybody. But, just to see who's guilty in political uprises in Belarus, they have to look into mirror.

Ian Bremmer:

Were you surprised that President Putin invited, and I'm sure President Lukashenko had no choice but to accept the invitation to come to Sochi a few days later? They were looking like the best of friends sharing a meal on Putin's yacht. Talk to me a little bit about how you related to Putin's response to all of this.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

The strangest thing, maybe the most obvious thing is that the whole world understand that these two people are not friends. They are making this picture to try to persuade Belarusians and the world that they are together, they are supporting each other. But we know that the situation, Belarus crisis in Belarus is not convenient for Kremlin as well. But from the election day, Kremlin supported Lukashenko, maybe because Kremlin also didn't expect such huge uprising, such consistent uprising, they just don't have other way just to show that we are still supporting them. But also, it's in their interest to try to get out of this crisis, Belarusian crisis.

Ian Bremmer:

So if they want out of the crisis, why would President Putin, and again, I'm just asking your opinion, I know that you don't have any inside information in what's happening in the Kremlin. But, when the Russian government comes out and condemns the West for taking acts against Belarus, when they decide to take actions against Western planes, that decide that they're not going to fly through Belarusian airspace and the Russians say, "We're not going to let you land in Moscow," I mean, that certainly doesn't seem like the Kremlin is trying to put an end to this as quickly as possible.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Because, the situation is difficult. They supported Lukashenko at the beginning, and they are trying to be consistent in the foreign policy, but they would like to get out of this crisis, I mean, Kremlin, but they can't afford that. New elections will happen in Belarus because of uprising of people, because people want democratic changes. They now are trying to keep time for Lukashenko to maybe to prepare candidate loyal for Russia, and so on. But we always send message to Kremlin, "Our revolution is not geopolitical. We always will be neighbors. This is the inner situation and we ask not interfere into political issue of this crisis. That's what we want."

Ian Bremmer:

Now, when the Belarusian elections occurred and were stolen by President Lukashenko, and the opposition was out in the streets in large numbers for a long time, at that point, did your colleagues reach out to the Russian government at all? Did they reach out to you? Was there a willingness of the Russian government, either formally or informally, to communicate with you or otherwise, the Belarusian opposition to show that maybe, there might be a way out?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Since the beginning, we tried to reach representatives of Kremlin. We sent messages that, "We are ready to discuss this crisis if you want to help Belarusian society." We didn't get any official answers since then. And that's why we were trying to look for mandates between regime and civil society, mandates with their representatives, just to talk with representatives of Kremlin. And some European leaders try to communicate to leader of Russia, but no result at the moment. But, we are trying. We are keeping on.

Ian Bremmer:

You obviously have gotten a lot of support from the West. I've seen so many statements from countries across Europe, the United States, Canada. The responses from the West have been very strong diplomatically. Economically, of course, the sanctions are more limited. Has the Western response in your view, been appropriate to-date?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Right after fraudulent elections in August and September, European answer was rather quick. There were three packages of sanctions and help to civil society, but I don't think it was enough. We didn't catch this moment when European Union and together with the UC, and UK, and Canada could do more. But since December there were no new sanctions, no high-level conferences around tables about how to solve crisis in Belarus. And we saw the result. Lukashenko felt impunity, and he hijacked this plane. So European Union and other countries, democratic countries, understood that this time response should be much, much stronger. And we hope that the fourth package of sanctions will be powerful, and fifth sanction is being prepared. Because, Lukashenko now is threat not only to Belarusian people, he's threat to other European countries and world.

Ian Bremmer:

The Europeans are saying of course, they want the Belarusian President and the government to be punished, but they don't want to hurt the Belarusian people. And that, of course, is a reason that is given for limiting and tailoring the sanctions that are being levied on Belarus. When you hear that statement from the European Union, how do you respond to it?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I respond, first of all, is that sanctions is the leverage that people on the ground are asking for. They are demanding new sanctions because they are already suffering. People are being fired. People are being prosecuted in the apartments, on the streets, on the factories, and uprises. People don't feel safe. And, people want to end with regime as soon as possible. And we believe that only sanctions will help us to release political prisoners, to stop violence, to make regime answer for our course for negotiations and organize new elections. So without sanctions, we will continue to fight. People in a very difficult situation in Belarus, but they are not giving up. They continue to fight. But with sanctions, this resolution will be much faster.

Ian Bremmer:

Extraordinary bravery on the part of the people of Belarus, finding ways to turn out and demonstrate even though they know violence can be used against them, even though they know they can be taken from the streets and thrown in prison. There's no rule of law. But of course, the numbers... I mean, maintaining the kind of demonstrations, the kind of civil unrest, is incredibly difficult on a poor population. There were some work stoppages, some people that said that they weren't going to go to work at the factories, but that didn't last very long. How do you sustain this kind of an opposition movement given the power that the Belarusian government, and the military, and the police, and the state media, and all of the rest, given how much power they have?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

People will never be able to forget the help that Lukashenko made in Belarus. And people understand that thousands of prisoners, thousands of tortured people are waiting for people's help. People now are strategizing themselves. They are organizing new structures like striking committees or neighborhoods, different initiatives to continue the fight because everybody understand that people who are in jail now, thousands of people, they hope only on those who are still on freedom. And they know that we are not stopping, we are not given up because it's our duty to release all those who are years already in jail, and to bring our country to new democratic elections.

Ian Bremmer:

What's life like in Belarus for the average citizen right now? Describe it a little bit for an audience that has never been there.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

You feel that you don't have rights at all. You can't speak. You know that if you say something against regime, you will be jailed. Going out to work you have to take special bag with you where is extra socks, extra pants, just in case you will be kidnapped somewhere or taken from your job and put in jail. You have to always be in stress, just understanding who will be your children with, who will take care of your parent just in case you will be jailed. You don't feel safe, you don't feel comfortable. You are struggling.

You are trying to support people who are in jail, but you are trying to fight in different ways just writing letters to political prisoners, participating in different initiatives. Putting everywhere our symbols to show that we are still here. We are scared, but we are strong enough to resist you. We can't go out to the streets in such mass demonstrations as in August and September because we felt the cruelty of the regime, but we will not stop, for sure. And at this moment, we need support and help of other democratic countries.

Ian Bremmer:

Sviatlana, back in 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed. It's been 30 years. What you just described to me in many ways sounds even worse than life was like in the old Soviet Union. And, there was such hope around the world that the collapse of the Soviet Empire, such as it was, was going to lead to independence, and freedom, and economic wellbeing. Are there a lot of people in Belarus that are nostalgic for the Soviet times? That wish that Belarus had never become independent?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Maybe, there is a group of people. And it's usually people from villages, and old people who are nostalgic about Soviet Union. But, new generation grew up. New generations see how country could develop, how our country could develop if we had chosen a correct person in the past. We see how, in the border, in Poland, in Lithuania, people live. They are free. They are free. They have good salaries.

And, for 26 years we have been living in so-called stability that Lukashenko promotes. And, he thinks that it's okay. That's not okay. The world has stepped much, much further than Belarus. But, we are in wonderful geographical position. We have wonderful, hardworking people. But, we didn't have opportunity to develop our country because we were nobody for our government. One person ruled for 26 years, Belarus, and didn't give people to realize their ambitions.

Ian Bremmer:

We know that you want Lukashenko and his regime out. It's very understandable. Do you still want to be president yourself?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I'm not going to participate in new free and fair elections. In the election campaign, I declared that I am, together with the Belarusian people, going to fight against regime and together, with people, organize new elections. But then, people will gain the right to choose anybody they want, new candidates, but my mandate will be stopped there.

Ian Bremmer:

So, final question for you. Does Lukashenko think he's winning right now?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Absolutely not. He has already lost. He lost his image of strong President. Instead of being the first President of Belarus, he became criminal In the eyes of Belarusian people. He is nobody in the eyes of Belarusian people. European leaders are not shaking his hand. So, he's a person who couldn't finish his career with dignity.

Ian Bremmer:

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, you're an incredibly courageous person and I really appreciate you joining us on GZERO World.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Thank you so much.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Like what you've heard? Come check us out at gzeromedia.com and sign up for our newsletter, Signal.

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The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company understands the value of service, safety, and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.

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