Podcast: When allies unified by Ukraine confront upended security & war fatigue

TRANSCRIPT: When allies unified by Ukraine confront upended security & war fatigue

Gillian Tett:

It's quite remarkable that we had the mayors of a number of Ukrainian cities, a lot of the government figures, many people in civil society coming all the way to Davos to basically try and persuade the West that they need to rally support around them.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer and I'm coming to you today from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Because of the pandemic, it's been two years since this gathering of public and private sector leaders took place. Needless to say, there was a lot to discuss. The theme this year, 'History at a Turning Point' as a war rages on the European continent, that's cascading impact can be felt all over the world. We'll talk about that and more, with some of the thought leaders at the forum. First up, Wolfgang Ischinger. He's a top German diplomat who served as chairman of the Munich Security Conference from 2008 to 2022. Let's do this.

Announcer 3:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients' needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. GZERO World would also like to share a message from our friends at Foreign Policy. Challenge yourself to change the world on season three of Course Correction, a podcast from Doha Debates in partnership with the UNHCR Refugee Agency. Host Nelufar Hedayat, takes listeners on the journey of a refugee. From the moment of displacement to mental health risks, to integration and assimilation, learn about the issues affecting displaced persons around the world and what you can do to solve them. Follow and listen to Course Correction wherever you get your podcasts.

Announcer 4:

I'm with my friend Wolfgang Ischinger here at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Wolfgang, so the state of transatlantic relations today from the Davos perspective, what do you think?

Wolfgang Ischinger:

Good shape, better than at any time in recent memory. If we had had a Davos a year ago, we would've been talking about the debacle of Afghanistan, et cetera. We're in good shape now. NATO is essentially on track. The European Union has surprisingly not fallen apart. My only concern is if it is correct to assume that this war in Ukraine will drag on for not weeks, but months. Are we going to be in good shape 3, 6, 9 months down the road? That's my concern. Are we going to have the stamina to stay on course?

Ian Bremmer:

Now, question. To the extent that war fatigue is starting to set in overtime, and again, I think most people presume this is not ending anytime soon, does it come first from the Europeans or from the Americans and why?

Wolfgang Ischinger:

Well, let's talk about America for a moment. You guys have elections coming up, midterm elections, and I'm not so certain that the average American voter is going to like the idea of paying higher gas prices and spending more money on foreign expeditions, et cetera, et cetera. So I'm worried a little bit about the American commitment longer-term.

In Europe, I think at the moment we're in good shape, but of course we have these outliers. We have Viktor Orbán.

Ian Bremmer:

Hungary.

Wolfgang Ischinger:

We have Hungary, and we have a couple of other partners that have specific interests. Germany has its own problem with gas. I wish I could say in six weeks or in 12 weeks, we are going to be able to cut gas imports from Russia. It's hard to do. It's hard to do, and I feel sorry for those in my own government who have to respond to this urgent question from our Ukrainian partners. When are you going to stop financing the Russian war of aggression by continuing to buy this stuff?

But then again, it's not going to help if Germany cuts gas imports now with the obvious, obvious consequence of a significant recession, then of course the commitment by the German wider public for our Ukrainian determination will surely shrink.

Ian Bremmer:

Yeah.

Wolfgang Ischinger:

And whose interest would we serve with that? So this is really a dilemma.

Ian Bremmer:

And the Americans and the Europeans have had divergent perspectives for a while on Russia that are now aligning. They've also had some divergent perspectives on China for a while, are they now aligning?

Wolfgang Ischinger:

I think there is one lesson we are learning, we're Europeans. We cannot ignore that the US not here is looking at the huge problem, potential problem with China, with the Taiwan issue, et cetera, and we cannot possibly leave the United States alone in that. In other words, we need to understand that even though this is many thousands of miles away, it is in our interest to get involved. Maybe not militarily, we don't have the capacities militarily, but certainly politically, and we need much closer coordination between Washington and Brussels and Berlin and Paris on China.

Ian Bremmer:

And Olaf Scholz so far, when you saw that initial speech he gave the turning point speech he gave, did it reflect for you a new strategic vision for Germany? Is this a new generation for Germany in politics or is it more modest than that?

Wolfgang Ischinger:

No, it was a major decision. Look, essential elements of established German foreign policy went up the chimney.

Ian Bremmer:

We'd say out the window.

Wolfgang Ischinger:

Out the window.

Ian Bremmer:

That sounds more definitive if it's up the chimney.

Wolfgang Ischinger:

Out the window. The idea which we had been preaching for many years, the future partnership with Russia, out the window, no longer possible. The idea of a security order for all of Europe with Russia included, out the window. In other words, for no country has this Russian attack against Ukraine produced more sharp cuts and the need for total revision of our foreign policy. The problem for Olaf Scholz is not that he gave the wrong speech. The problem for him is that it's not so clear that all of his followers in his own party agree with his speech and with the consequences of spending a hundred billion extra on defense and on meeting the 2% defense goal going forward, et cetera. So he has to fight this internal political fight, not against the opposition which supports him, but against his own party.

Ian Bremmer:

No, the Americans have been saying for a long time how come the Europeans aren't sacrificing the Germans? The Europeans are sacrificing more this time around. There's no question.

Wolfgang Ischinger:

Absolutely.

Ian Bremmer:

Wolfgang Ischinger, good to see you.

Wolfgang Ischinger:

Thanks Ian. Great to see you.

Ian Bremmer:

This year's World Economic Forum wasn't just about the many crises that we're facing, it was also a referendum on the forum itself and the strength of the multilateral values it defends. I talked about that with Venezuelan journalist, Moisés Naím. Here's our conversation.

Ian Bremmer:

Moisés Naím, you always talk about power and standing here in the World Economic Forum, I want to ask you, how much power do you think this group really has today and how's it moving?

Moisés Naím:

Well, it is always easy to overstate the power here and what happens. This is a meeting in which there is a lot of interactions, there's a lot of conversations, but it's not the center point in which decisions are made. The essence of power emanating of meetings like this has to do with ideas and the clarity of ideas and the dominant feeling that I have gotten from the meeting that is confusion, confusion reigns. Confusion is the leitmotif of this meeting, people don't know what is happening. A very famous Spanish philosopher, José Ortega said in 1939, he saw what was coming in Europe and he said, "we don't know what is happening to us" and that is exactly what is happening to us. And I think that captures very well the mood here in which everybody feels and knows that there are these massive changes of uncertain consequences and that then generates the anxiety, the doubts about everything, and that of course erodes power.

Ian Bremmer:

The last time there was this level of crisis at the World Economic Forum was 2009. It was right in the teeth of the global financial crisis, and people didn't necessarily know how we were going to come out of it, but they all knew what the tools were. They all understood the nature of the crisis. This time around it feels very different. It's more diffuse and they don't understand how to respond.

Moisés Naím:

And it's more without precedent. The 2009 financial crisis came in the hills of many financial crisis around the world. So the world was equipped with institutions and policies and ideas, as you say, how to deal with a financial collapse. That's not the case here. We are dealing with uncertain situations that have no precedent and that also adds to the confusion that I just mentioned.

Ian Bremmer:

So if we look forward five years time, where is the locus of power going to be that will surprise us? What institutions, what geographies?

Moisés Naím:

In the future power will continue to be concentrated in algorithms and leaders and their followers. That trial is going to stay with us. What we don't know is what are the sector anchors of that or the geographical anchors. But artificial intelligence is going to have consequences for power, as will new kinds of leaders and new kinds of followers that expect and demand from their political leaders, things that have not been common until now.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think that continued development and artificial intelligence is necessarily a centralizing aspect, a consolidating aspect of power?

Moisés Naím:

Both is a technology and all technologies are two double-edged swords. Technologies can be very good for some things and very bad for others. There's no doubt that artificial intelligence is going to be a technology that's going to touch all sectors and transform them in very surprising ways, and we are going to be surprised by the kinds of places where artificial intelligence will pop up and change completely what we knew about that place.

Ian Bremmer:

One other point, Latin America is virtually not on the agenda this year. It's part of the world you know very, very well. If you could insert Latin America on the agenda in a big way, what would you want to be discussed here?

Moisés Naím:

The very dangerous convergence of inflation and disappointment with democracy. The world is going to face inflation for the first time in several decades, almost a generation. We are living with a generation of people that don't know what inflation is and inflation is coming and it's coming at the same time that there is a lot of disappointment with the performance of democracy. And so that's a perfect storm to create nasty politics.

Ian Bremmer:

Which country that's a strong democracy right now, might not be in a few years in Latin America?

Moisés Naím:

I don't know.

Ian Bremmer:

You don't want to make an assessment there. Did you like the fact that the Americans were reaching out to the Venezuelans on the energy front?

Moisés Naím:

I hope that something like that happens, but not in the ways happening. I think it is being managed in a way that is haphazard, not well thought through and ineffective. I hope that the current ways of thinking about how to deal with Venezuela at the White House, at the State Department will be revised, reviewed and tossed and others other ways of engaging will be found.

Ian Bremmer:

Good to see you Moisés.

Moisés Naím:

Same here.

Ian Bremmer:

Finally, Gillian Tett chairs the editorial board at the Financial Times. She spent time meeting with the Ukrainian delegation here in Davos and shared with me some of what she learned.

Ian Bremmer:

Gillian Tett last night you were with the entire Ukrainian delegation, an emotional time for you. Tell me what you took away from that meeting.

Gillian Tett:

Well, the first thing I took away was the fact that the Ukrainians are being exceptionally clever in terms of trying to rally support in the West by coming here. I mean, it's quite remarkable that we had the mayors of a number of Ukrainian cities, a lot of the government figures, many people in civil society coming all the way to Davos to basically try and persuade the West that they need to rally support around them and not just support them in terms of ending the war through sanctions and other measures and trying to get military support, but also very actively now thinking about rebuilding and about the Marshall Plan.

Ian Bremmer:

And I mean, Davos is not a place typically that you would expect to see a Ukrainian delegation rallying for support. They've gotten away with it because of the sheer brutality of the Russians, but also because of the trauma that is so evidently and abundantly being experienced by everyone in delegation.

Gillian Tett:

Well, I think what's very clear is listening to the stories about the horrific events happening on the ground in Ukraine, even as we speak, is injecting a level of emotion and shock into what's frankly, normally, often very dry and boring and wordy debates. And there's a huge amount of goodwill here. There's a huge recognition that what they're fighting for are values that Davos itself has often tried to reclaim or say that it espouses. There's also recognition that eventually there will be some kind of business opportunity in Ukraine for many people here, and they're looking about that as well. But in the short- to medium-term, the other issue of course, are questions of food security, the questions around sanctions and how they're going to impact the global economy. And people are saying, yes, we absolutely support you, but there are also concerns we have.

Ian Bremmer:

Now on the sanctions piece, something the Financial Times is surely very interested in, I mean, we have an awful lot of assets that are being confiscated, and there's a lot of talk about taking those assets and helping to pay off the Ukrainians who have just been invaded by Russia. I've heard a lot of people criticizing that on the sidelines of this global group. What's your take?

Gillian Tett:

I've heard lots of concern about that as well, not just from American financiers and lawyers who say, what about the due process element of all this? We want to have some kind of framework and due process, but also from the non-Western investors who have been investing in America or Europe in recent years are saying, well, hang on a sec, if due process is being overturned, what will it mean for us looking at America as an investment destination?

Now the Ukrainians are aware of this and they've come up with a number of documents which are trying to create some kind of framework and due process around this, which they've been passing around to people in recent days. And it's going to be very interesting because there are a number of techniques and tools you can use that already exist under US law and in jurisdictions like France and Netherlands, which actually would allow you to do quite a lot of action right now. The question though is whether they're solid enough and whether the people in Davos will rally around any of the Ukrainian proposals around a due process.

Ian Bremmer:

So maybe, but what you're saying is we're not there yet.

Gillian Tett:

Not there yet, and it's going to be very tough.

Ian Bremmer:

Gillian Tett.

Gillian Tett:

Thank you.

Ian Bremmer:

Thank you.

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast, like what you've heard, come check us out at gzeromedia.com and sign up for our newsletter signal.

Announcer 3:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients' needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions, visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. GZERO World would also like to share a message from our friends at Foreign Policy. Challenge yourself to change the world on season three of course correction, a podcast from Doha Debates. In partnership with the UNHCR Refugee Agency. Host Nelufar Hedayat, takes listeners on the journey of a refugee. From the moment of displacement to mental health risks, to integration and assimilation, learn about the issues affecting displaced persons around the world and what you can do to solve them. Follow and listen to Course Correction wherever you get your podcasts.