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A new Iran nuclear deal is critical but not a sure thing, says Iran expert Ali Vaez
The Biden administration has worked hard for the US to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which former President Trump walked away from in 2018. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says the odds of renewing the deal in the short term are about 50/50. Now, reaching an agreement is more urgent than ever because Iran is closer to getting the bomb, Vaez explains, because the breakout time to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon is reportedly within weeks.
Russia's war in Ukraine has complicated things, and some fear that even if a deal happens, the US may withdraw again with a Republican president in 2025. Still, Vaez thinks the deal has become too big to fail for Iran, crippled by sanctions, and for the US; Biden will pay a political price if the Iranians go nuclear on his watch. Vaez also digs into Israel's strategic interest in a deal the Israelis have long opposed, and Russia's role in the negotiations with Iran.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
Why Israel now supports an Iran nuclear deal
Israel fiercely opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, but now is not so against it as it was before.
Why?
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says the Israelis have realized that a no-deal scenario doesn't serve the country's interest — and that the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal was a mistake because it brought Iran closer to getting the bomb.
And why does Israel get to have nukes but not Iran?
"Well, international relations is about double standards, right?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The pros and cons of a nuclear program for Iran
Has the war in Ukraine changed Iran's calculus on getting nuclear weapons?
Not necessarily, says Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group. Like the Ukrainians now, the Iranians know Iraq and Libya basically gave up their weapons programs and then got invaded — a sharp contrast to North Korea when Donald Trump was in the White House.
Tehran, he tells Ian Bremmer, is fully aware that once they go nuclear, the strategic balance of power becomes a game based on how many nukes you have, and that they may suffer a strike before they acquire the capability anyway.
Still, Vaez explains that Ukraine has changed things somewhat because the Russians have moved the goalposts by making their support for the deal contingent on lifting Western sanctions against Russia, which the Iranians resent because they too need sanctions removed.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The US can’t let Iran get any closer to nuclear weapons, says Iran expert Ali Vaez
Even if the US rejoins the Iran nuclear deal, many Republicans are fiercely opposed to it — and could withdraw again in 2025 if they win the White House in two years.
Why do it at all then? Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group, has some thoughts.
For one thing, it'll buy us nine years before the Iranians can enrich enough uranium for a nuke. For another, now we know the real effect of pulling out: it boosted Iran's nuclear program.
What's more, if the US withdraws for a second time, Vaez says the terms of the deal will leave Tehran where it is today: "uncomfortably close to nuclear weapons."
How close? Well, he says, in a matter of four weeks the Iranians could enrich enough uranium to be 99% of the way to weapons-grade.
A single weapon is not an arsenal, but Vaez thinks that's still "too much of a risk and ... too uncomfortable for Israel and the US."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
Since taking office, the Biden administration has worked hard for the US to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Donald Trump walked away from in 2018.
Now, reaching an agreement is more urgent than ever because the Iranians are closer to getting the bomb than they've ever been. But Russia's war in Ukraine has complicated things, and some fear that even if a deal happens, the US may withdraw again with a Republican president in 2025.
On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says the odds of success in the short term are about 50/50. Still, he thinks the stakes have become too big to fail for both Iran, crippled by sanctions, and for the US — Biden will pay a political price if the Iranians go nuclear on his watch.
Vaez also digs into Israel's strategic interest in a deal the Israelis have long opposed, and Russia's role in the negotiations with Iran.
More on the war in Ukraine: can cold-calling ordinary Russians to talk about the invasion change their hearts and minds? We talk to an Ireland-based Ukrainian in charge of a project doing just that.
Podcast: Iran on the verge: why you don’t want the nuclear deal to fail, according to Iran expert Ali Vaez
Listen: Renewing the Iran nuclear deal is more urgent than ever for the Biden administration. Iran is closer to getting the bomb, with the breakout time to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon reportedly less than two weeks. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says the odds of reaching an agreement in the short term are 50/50.
There are domestic political risks for Biden either way, but a new deal would significantly delay Iran’s ability to enrich enough uranium for a weapon. It's also now clear that the real effect of pulling out of the deal in 2018 was that it boosted Iran's nuclear program. Vaez also digs into Israel's strategic interest in a deal, which they have long opposed, and Russia's role in the negotiations with Iran.
Listen to Ian Bremmer's interview with Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.
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Iran nuclear deal now a toss-up, says International Crisis Group expert
So, is the Iran nuclear deal 2.0 finally happening, or not?
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says he stopped making predictions months ago. Still, he puts the odds now at 50/50.
Failure is not an option for the Iranians, Vaez tells Ian Bremmer in a GZERO World interview, because they've survived crippling US economic sanctions but will never thrive under them. Also, if the crisis escalated, additional UN sanctions will snap back.
The Iran nuclear deal has also become too big to fail for the Americans, he says. Why? Iran is closer to the verge of acquiring nukes than it's been in 20 years.Vaez explains that Iran's breakout time — how long it'll take the Iranians to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon — is now less than two weeks. It was more than 12 months when former US President Donald Trump took office.
Biden, he thinks, could pay a political price for restoring the agreement in the November midterm elections — but allowing Iran to become a nuclear-armed state on his watch could hurt the president even more.
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