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The Graphic Truth: Militarizing the Arctic
In the coming decades, Arctic sea ice is expected to melt so much that the region will become traversable much of the year. While environmentally devastating, this will also mean more shipping access, resource extraction, and risk of conflict in the region.
Any future battles for sovereignty in the Arctic will rely on access to icebreakers and submarines. Canada has been trying with little success to grow its navy since it enacted its National Shipbuilding Strategy in 2010, and its plan to open an Arctic naval facility is nearly a decade behind schedule. The US, meanwhile, has a formidable submarine fleet, but its naval interests are spread worldwide, and Washington has not indicated any plans to make the Arctic a priority anytime soon. This means the US and Canada will need their NATO partners and allies to help keep an eye on security threats up north.
Arctic naval dominance, meanwhile, is shifting eastward. China looks set to outpace all other countries in naval growth through 2030. It is also joining major Arctic institutions, sending high-ranking officials to the region, and using its naval vessels to patrol Arctic waters – all signs that China has great polar power ambitions.
The strategic importance of the Arctic has also been on Russia’s radar. Over the past decade, Moscow has invested in around 40 icebreakers, giving them a mammoth fleet compared to other nations. While the US and NATO’s submarine fleets are expected to constrict in 2030, Russia is planning to grow its submarine capacity.
We take a look at Arctic-capable warships across these four countries.
Scientists ride their snowmobiles near Kronebreen glacier through the arctic landscape in Norway.
Norway takes helm of icy Arctic Council
On Thursday, Norway became the chair of the Arctic Council, the leading forum for intergovernmental cooperation in the region. The transition has been muted, but the stakes are high: It’s taking over from none other than Russia.
As the Arctic heats up as a geopolitical theater (China has called it one of the world’s “new strategic frontiers”), managing it well is top of mind for Arctic states like Canada and the US.
What is the Arctic Council? It was created in the 1990s to facilitate cooperation on issues like sustainable development, environmental preservation, and search and rescue, though notably not on security. The council is made up of the eight Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US), plus reps from the region’s Indigenous Peoples and observer states like China. Leadership rotates every two years, and Russia was halfway through its term when it invaded Ukraine last year.
Until the invasion, the Council was a solid example of post-Cold War cooperation.
Even after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, it remained a unique space for friends and adversaries alike to find common ground.
Not so these days. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the other Arctic nations froze their Council work with Moscow, leaving a third of the body’s 130 projects on hold.
Icing Russia out could compromise the Council’s viability. Over half of the Arctic’s coastline and almost half its population are Russian. Real progress in fighting climate change and managing a growing international interest in the region with only half the picture? Good luck.
Norway gets that. “Probably, the most important outcome of our time as chair will be that we make sure that the Arctic Council survives," Norway’s Senior Arctic Official Morten Høglund said.
Failure to advance a meaningful agenda for circumpolar affairs and sustain the council’s viability “would be a major blow to multilateral efforts to grapple with issues like climate change, which has an outsized impact on Indigenous peoples in the fast-warming Arctic region,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson.
Could Norway invite Russia back into the fold? Høglund has pledged to restart communication, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre recently said that “there may come a time to move forward again. And I would warn against … cutting Russia out of the map as if it is no longer there. It is.”
And don’t forget about China. Beijing says it hopes Norway can restore the council’s cooperative work and is vowing to “play a constructive role.”
As it took the helm on Thursday, Norway offered to host a council meeting in 2025. All members would be invited, which means Russia might soon come in from the cold.