We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Europe's rising COVID cases require new action; tragedy in France
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe:
What is happening with COVID in Europe?
Well, we see infections on the rise virtually everywhere. It looks particularly bad at the moment in Czech Republic, in Belgium. Doesn't look good in France and Spain. Neither does it in the United Kingdom, by the way. But it has to be said, it's all over the place. So, we'll see new advice of a rather strong nature by authorities. We see regulation sometimes, we see restaurants closing down earlier, and things like that. Let's just hope for the best. So far, deaths are fairly limited so far.
What really happened in France?
It was really horrible. It was really tragic, with that innocent teacher who just wanted to teach his pupils the Republican values that are so fundamental to the strengths of the French republic. What we've seen since is a very impressive manifestation of those Republican secular values by all of the French nations. So, let's hope that they would overcome this crisis as well.
Thailand's monarchy, Nigeria protests, Bolivia's new president & COVID latest
Watch Ian Bremmer discuss the World In (more than) 60 Seconds:
With Thailand's anti-government movement growing, is the monarchy in danger?
No, the monarchy is not in danger. The prime minister, Prayut, is in massive danger. These people want him out. That could lead to, yet another, military coup. By the way, markets don't tend to move because it happens a lot in Thailand all the time. This is a lot of demands for economic reform. A lot of demands for incompetence in the country. The economy has been hit massively. Thailand is massively dependent on tourism and something that is certainly not happening with coronavirus going on. It's extraordinary. There has been a fair amount of anti-monarchy sentiment and willingness to go after them in the demonstrations, which is illegal to do in Thailand, but there's still a lot of support. The royalist at military coordination is very high. That's not going to change the resources they have that they're able to spread around the country for patronage is massive. It is nowhere near the popularity that the former very long-lasting king had, but the monarchy in Thailand, no, is not in danger.
What is happening in Nigeria?
Well, massive protests in Nigeria, too. Big, big security breakdowns, both in the capital, Abuja, as well as across Nigeria's southwest. I was there, actually, a year ago and loved my trip. But there's no question, there were more military checkpoints than I'd ever been through in my life, including some that were a little dodgy. This time around, it is large amounts of popular protest against police brutality, and security shakedowns, and abuses. That has also been taken advantage of by some of the criminal elements themselves using the demonstrations to advance their own gains. The President Buhari has said very little in response, so far. The responses have mostly been at the local level. That's not going to be able to continue for long because we're talking about the capital of a country and pretty widespread instability. But nonetheless, this is a pretty big deal for the largest economy in Nigeria and something we should be watching pretty closely.
Bolivia, all over the world today, elected a new president. Who is Luis Arce, and how will he lead the country?
Well, he was the minister of finance, I want to say, for the former president, Evo Morales. Morales, indigenous leader of the left progressive, did a very good job in lowering inequality in Bolivia, was very popular, but was forced out of power because of charges of fraud in the last presidential vote a year ago. And both domestically and internationally, and the United States agreed, most international observers did, and then, turned out that those allegations of fraud were themselves fraudulent. In other words, he was kind of forced out of power illicitly. And the place holder government, this woman, Jeanine Áñez, who took over as an interim leader, and was from the right, and much more pro-business, pro-market, anti-indigenous people, overturned a lot of Morales' policies, and with significant abuses against his supporters, riot police brought in and the rest, she was thinking about running in election, which would have probably been illegal. She chose not to, smart for her, and ended up supporting the unity candidate on the right, former president, Carlos Mesa. He lost, and he lost in the first round to this President Arce, who has nowhere near the charisma of Morales. But the level of opposition to the way he was forced out so high that he ended up sweeping the win. And it's going to hurt economically. The markets will respond negatively to it. And obviously, this is a very challenging time, economically, in the country. But if you leave aside the Washington consensus, the IMF, and the rest, and talk about the Bolivian people, this is going to lead to a lot more political stability, a lot fewer people getting hurt. And big congratulations to the former minister of finance, now, president.
Final question is, what is the global COVID update?
Oh, save that until the end. We're continuing to see significant expansion of cases across, now, not just Spain, but really all of Europe. In fact, in the Czech Republic, you're seeing the highest levels of cases per capita of any country in Europe, I think, since this whole thing started. Real expansion across the entire continent, Western Europe and much of Eastern Europe. And of course, across, now, the entirety of the United States. It's not a third wave, it's a second wave. In the US, there were lots of first waves in different parts of the United States, so it made it feel like it was expanding at different times. In reality, it's because the US is just really big and diverse. Now, this is increasingly a collective second wave leading to a lot more people getting hospitalized too. The death rates in the United States and Europe are still staying relatively low. In part, that's different by behaviors on the part of the populations that are most vulnerable. In part, it is hospital care improve with having sufficient ICU beds. It is being prepared in terms of better treatment, and also, getting people to recognize symptoms and getting treated immediately. All of that means that even with a very significant... The absolute scale of this second wave is likely probably going to be greater in terms of total cases than the first wave was. And yet, the economic impact, the human impact is likely to be less because we've learned so much more about the virus.
Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire may not hold but direct war is unlikely
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
Let's go. Number one. What are the chances the Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire holds?
Well, I mean, in this environment, a hold is virtually zero. There's very little restraint on the ground. Local, military leaders, especially in the autonomous region of Karabakh, aren't necessarily listening to everything that the Armenian government has to say. One shot, one drone leads to more. And, there is no process by which the Armenians and the Azeri leadership can say that, "They're winning, yet." And so, that makes it hard. But the fact that the Russians are engaging, we had trilateral talks with the Armenians and the Azeris, the Russians matter the most here. They're the ones that have ensured, some level of frozen instability between the two. There's been significant behind the scene's engagement in Moscow with diplomats, from both sides. And, I think the Russians have made very clear to the Turks at this point, that the Turks are not going to get a leadership seat in the Minsk group, broader negotiations. And, that the Russians would not tolerate a broader expansion of the war that threatened Armenian territorial integrity itself, as opposed to Nagorno-Karabakh. If they were to do that, the Russians would come in and defend Armenia. So, a lot of people are dying, certainly in the high hundreds, at this point. We've got nearly a hundred thousand additional people displaced. This is a horrible thing to see happen, but it's not the tipping point of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
I do think that there needs to be new reinvigorated negotiations. The fact is, that the Armenians presently hold, not just Karabakh, which is the territory that had been given to Azerbaijan by Stalin but is mostly Armenian. And, that was taken by the Armenians after the Soviet Union collapsed, that's not going to change. That's kind of like the Crimea situation between Russia and Ukraine. But there's also been territories around Karabakh. There are Azeri territories that the Armenians have occupied as a buffer zone. And, there has to be an ability to get off of that, to negotiate a way from that. I also think that if there are more people killed on both sides, not only is it harder for both sides to climb down, but the potential for the Armenian say to formally recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenian territory, which makes the Azeris harder to climb down their own leadership, and weakens, presently if that's real. So, there is positioning, it's not just about the fact that this is still going to be a frozen conflict, and we know what the contours of the eventual solution will be. But, it's also that you have two leaders in place, that can't be seen as losing, these of these, the other on an issue that is incredibly important for them. I don't see an either one has provided significant diplomatic support, looks like some mercenaries, and some direct military support, but I can't see in any way, the Turkish military directly intervening on the Azeri side. So again, even though this is horribly damaging from humanitarian perspective, I would personally be really stunned to see this lead into Armenia, Azerbaijan direct war.
Okay. What's happening with Britain's new coronavirus lockdown measures?
Well, as you probably know, the United Kingdom has some of the highest levels of cases, per capita in the world, right now. This was a UK that originally was letting the virus rip through the country, and just going to protect the older people. That didn't work. They had to lock down. They then started opening up, and the cases have now gone up a lot. Boris Johnson has had to start locking down. Again, they didn't want to, they said, "They weren't going to." They now have this three-tier system between medium, high, and very high of alert systems. And, that's going across the country. But it's really hurting the poor North the most, that have the biggest transmission per capita, and are being locked down the hardest. Obviously, that's creating an enormous amount of agitation against Boris Johnson, both inside his own conservative party; and also providing more support for the labor party in the country. He doesn't have to run for elections anytime soon, but this is a real problem. If you are Boris Johnson and the UK right now, it's going to hurt their economy much worse, than pretty much any other economy in Europe, certainly more than the United States. Also, gives him more incentive, the silver lining, not to accept a no deal hard out. They're in World Trade Organization land, with Europeans at the end of this year. So, a little more likely they end up with a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. Always got to be a silver lining.
Does the Taliban really support Donald Trump?
Well, I mean support. Do they like American leaders? No, of course they don't. They don't like the Americans. They would rather, the Americans leave. They like Trump more than Biden, because Trump's the guy that's been pushing to end the war, as far, as fast as possible, even against the interests of the military leaders, and advisors inside the Pentagon; as well as many American allies. Some have claimed that Trump is cutting and running, but of course this war has been going on for decades now. Most Americans really tired of it; the costs, the lack of success, the human costs. I mean, all of this is deeply problematic. And so, if you're the Taliban, and the United States has facilitated both direct talks, multilateral talks, a peace deal, but is also saying, "Irrespective of what happens, we're ending the war, we're pulling out." Well, if you're the Taliban, all you have to do is hunker down, pretend you're engaged in negotiations. And once the Americans are out, you can do what you want. So absolutely, the Taliban are happier with Trump, than they would be with Biden.
Now, there has been a big flap about whether or not the Taliban endorsed President Trump. I don't think the Taliban is really in the practice of formally endorsing leaders. But there was a CBS interview a few days ago, with the Taliban leadership and their spokesperson that said that, "Trump would be better for them." And, there was a senior official in the Taliban that said that, "He wants Trump to win," even though originally that was reported as the Taliban formal spokesperson said that, "They endorsed Trump." So, I mean, there's a lot of noise around this. None of it really matters. But I understand why it made a bunch of news. And, the reality is that the United States is getting out of Afghanistan, and President Trump has done more to accomplish that, than others. Not a surprise, the Taliban finds that that kind of a vacuum is useful. But at the end of the day, the relationship between any U.S. President and the Taliban, is going to be pretty strange. By the way, kind of like the Chinese, kind of like the Russians, kind of like the Iranians, it's interesting that individual U.S. Presidents may say very different things, but their ability to fundamentally move the needle, is a lot less on these issues. There a lot more constrained, than is widely reported.
Quick Take: Coronavirus is still here & the numbers are getting worse
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and welcome to your week. I hope everyone's having a decent Monday. So much talk about. I want to really focus on coronavirus. Still have to think that is the story in the United States and globally. Everything else is second, third place. A very critical driver of the US election, of course, as it should be. The most important crisis of our lifetimes, irrespective of where you place responsibility, accountability, blame. Your view of that has to be a significant driver of how you think about voting.
The numbers are getting worse. Both in the United States, in Canada, in Europe, and in global developing markets, we are seeing larger numbers of coronavirus cases. In part, that is increased testing though, in many states in the US, we still have positive rates well over 10% of testing, which means we're not testing as much as we need to. That is true in the United Kingdom, that is true in other countries as well. I would argue that the numbers that we're seeing are still so much lower than what the reality is in terms of total cases that we've had. The World Health Organization believes at this point that we probably have about 10% of humanity that has gotten coronavirus. In other words, something like 800 million people, about 20 times the total numbers of cases that we are aware of.
Now that's both good news and bad news. I mean, the good news is that we know what mortality is. We know how many people pretty much have died of the virus. We don't know how many people have the virus. And if the doctors are generally right, that there's vastly more cases, and this is pretty much consensus at this point, that means that mortality from coronavirus is a lot lower than is generally being reported. And indeed, mortality levels continue to go down. And they're going down because we're learning more about the disease. We have better treatment. Now we understand how to fight the disease more effectively. We understand how to quarantine more effectively, how to target super spreader events, as opposed to trying to get every asymptomatic case, especially if you have limited amounts of testing.
All of these things are moving more positively, particularly on the treatment front. The epidemiological community believes that by the end of this year, mortality rates for those that have access to these new treatments, the antibody treatments and others, are going to go down significantly. The one that President Trump received, experimental, you have to get IV in a hospital. New antibody treatments coming online you'll be able to take in the home. And that's going to make it faster, easier. Distribution is obviously going to be easier too. And it means you won't get as many hospitalizations. That's also very helpful in terms of containing spread, very helpful in terms of keeping mortality rates down.
So, I mean, when I see the media increasingly mainly talking about case levels, not exclusively, but mostly talking about case levels going up and not talking about mortality rates going down, one is it gets politicized in terms of it's getting worse, it's getting worse. But two, it's not giving you a good sense that lockdowns are becoming less important. In other words, if mortality rate is going down, the comparative utility right of lockdown is also going down. The cost is becoming greater. The more we learn about this disease and the better we are at being able to fight it, the less you're going to need broad scale lockdowns. The more you can focus on really narrow interventions in those places where you see outbreaks as they occur.
By far, the most important thing everyone should be focused on and shouldn't be politicizing are the broad behavioral issues like wearing a mask, like social distancing and avoiding large crowds, especially indoors. That's something that everyone is capable of actually doing. And the fact that that's been politicized, the fact that we still have to say that because many are opposing it, particularly on social media, amplified by bots and trolls and people that are trying to sow further chaos among populations in the developed world in particular, is a big part of the problem. The fact that people willing to take vaccines, those numbers are going down in the middle of a pandemic because vaccinations and the success of vaccinations are becoming politicized. Those are all significant problems.
As to President Trump himself, clearly good news that not only President Trump, but also everyone that we see that has gotten the coronavirus in the White House from this super spreader event around the Amy Coney Barrett party at the Rose Garden, ceremony at the Rose Garden, seems to be getting better. President Trump seems to be no longer shedding virus, no longer contagious at this point. That's obviously a pretty quick recovery given his age and the severity of what he experienced. Also, former governor Chris Christie, out of the hospital. Nobody else seems to be at the ICU at this point. That's all generally good news.
The question is what are the knock-on implications of all of this? I mean, I think that ... And that's where you get bad news. First point is if you are President Trump, it is too late for you to say, "I've had a come to Jesus moment. I mean, this almost killed me. It's serious. If you've got preexisting conditions, please ensure that you're wearing a mask, you're socially distancing, especially if you're in those groups." No, Trump is not going to do that. It's entirely too late for him. It would be the right thing to do for the American people. But it's the wrong thing for him to do if he's trying to maintain as much support as possible, given where he's been over the last couple of years. And the election is making this worse, not better. So, I get that.
But what that means is Trump out there this week with more in-person, large group rallies with no social distancing and comparatively little mask wearing, and that behavior is being modeled and symbolized for people all over the country. And in some cases, all over the world. Makes it harder to fight this than you would otherwise like.
The other point that I think is worth mentioning is that President Trump is 74. He's morbidly obese. He just has gotten through a potentially lethal disease that we don't have a cure for. And he was given three experimental drugs that might or might not have been successful. So certainly, I mean, this has to be one of the most stressful things that Trump has gone through as a human being, given his age and his health makes it even worse. And he's president and he's underwater in the polls and he's in the middle of all these knockdown drag out fights. I mean, just understanding his emotional and mental state is I think hard to do.
But I think back to myself, the one time that I actually had a near death experience, I think it was in 1995. It was in Azerbaijan and I was going out to the refugee camps about an hour, no, it was about three hours, I guess, by drive outside of Baku. And just about an hour out, my driver fell asleep and we hit a truck going almost 60 miles an hour. And I will tell you, we got medivacked out of the country - I was fine, obviously, or not depending on who you are - but I will tell you for a month, two months, I went right back to work and outwardly, I did my best to show I had my shit together. But I mean, for at least a month, maybe two months, I was at various points in the day, I could see that truck just coming right at my face. And that affected my ability to work. That affected my emotional state. That affected my mental state. I mean, it was a solid two months before I got through that.
You have to think that President Trump right now is experiencing the same thing when you talk about just going through coronavirus, the possibility that he might die. And that's before you think about any side effects or impacts on his physical state from going through this steroid regime that usually, with reasonably healthy people, can have significant impacts on your emotional state.
So again, we're heading into this election, just the level of volatility we already see from a particularly unusual president, I just would keep that in mind as we sort of see the behavior and also recognize that it's going to be much more chaotic period, for many reasons, than any of us have seen or experienced before. And one of those pieces of volatility is going to be driven very much by a president that's just gotten through this kind of unique set of events, and he's a human being too, and we have our frailties.
So anyway, just a few things to think about. Hope everyone's doing well and great talk to you all. Feel free to get in touch and I will see you all soon. Bye.