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US Senate passes bipartisan gun bill but SCOTUS may loosen gun laws
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective on US politics:
How are the rules on gun ownership changing in the US?
This has been the most consequential week for regulations on gun ownership in the US for many years. In response to two recent high-profile mass shootings in New York and Texas, the Senate this week passed a bipartisan bill that restricts access to gun ownership by preventing people convicted of domestic abuse against a romantic partner from purchasing a firearm. And also increases funding for mental health, school security and incentivizes states to adopt laws that prevent people who are in mental distress from purchasing a gun.
At the same time, the Supreme Court struck down a rule in New York State that requires an applicant to demonstrate a "proper cause" before they will issue a concealed carry permit. The Supreme Court's decision, the first on gun rights in over a decade, has the potential to lead to the overturning of similar laws in other states, expanding the ability for individuals to carry firearms outside their home. Though several justices noted that this decision does not overturn other licensing requirements, such as background checks or firearms training.
The courts were reshaped by President Trump who appointed over 200 judges at the circuit and district court level and put three conservative justices on the Supreme Court who have signaled they are ready to overturn decades of precedent in gun laws, abortion, and business regulation. So, once the House passes this gun bill it will be harder for certain people to purchase guns and this is likely to reduce crime and save lives, but thanks to the Supreme Court, it will be easier for other people in some states to own and carry firearms in public.
The effects on public safety from these two measures are unclear. As Justice Alito pointed out, crimes are frequently committed by people who own guns unlawfully. But politicians in states with large densely packed cities worry that limiting their ability to regulate gun ownership will make it harder to stop gun crimes. There's little evidence to support these claims and in fact, the evidence on the effects of concealed carry permits in crime in either direction is mixed the best. And in the absence of stronger evidence linking these permits to higher crime, the court's rightward turn towards liberalizing gun laws is likely to increase access to gun ownership.
Don't expect US gun reform: Americans tolerate gun violence
Will the Buffalo shooting finally lead to gun reform in the United States? Is North Korea on the brink of a COVID-19 catastrophe? What is "The Power of Crisis"? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the Buffalo shooting finally lead to gun reform in the United States?
Absolutely not. Yeah, white supremacist uses a Bushmaster and puts out a manifesto that talks about how excited he is about all these guns, crazy lunatic, and going to be in jail for the rest of his life. For me, the one that got closest to maybe you get gun reform was the Newtown shooting in Connecticut. That was one that, really hit close to middle America, American elites and moved the needle in Washington for a bit, but still within a few months was pretty clear it wasn't going to happen. I think that the Americans, it's not that they've given up on gun reform, but that it just feels like something that Americans are prepared to tolerate. And also it's just not considered a top priority issue in terms of a threat to the average American that hits their top two, top three, top five. And so, as a consequence to me, it feels a little bit like the crack cocaine issue back in the eighties and the nineties. Horrible human tragedy, largely performative response, thoughts and prayers, but doesn't really force anyone to get out of their comfort zone and it's still politicized. Horrible thing.
Is North Korea on the brink of a COVID-19 catastrophe?
It certainly looks that way. They're one of only two countries in the world that have refused vaccines. The other is Eritrea. It's a totalitarian regime. They were offered vaccines by the Chinese. They said, "No, we want good vaccines. We want Moderna. We want Pfizer." They're not getting Moderna and Pfizer. Though, maybe we should send them, frankly. It now looks like you have enormous spread of cases in a population that has no healthcare capability to respond effectively and probably no antibodies because they're been locked down in terms of their borders for a long time. And now, unfortunately, massive transmission. This could be an enormous crisis from North Korea. And it makes me concerned that they're going to lash out to get more attention and maybe to get more aid if it's really bad. So if you were concerned about potential tests of nuclear weapons and so forth, or big ICBM launches, the next few weeks would be where I would worry about that.
You have a new book, what is "The Power of Crisis"?
Oh, come on. Really, really? You asking me that, or did my guys line that up? I have a new book. “The Power of Crisis” is this idea that in an environment where our institutions both domestically and internationally are eroding, drip by drip over the course of the past several decades, that a target rich crisis environment is potentially exactly what we need to really respond in ways that otherwise we would not. And we're certainly seeing that with the climate crisis in ways that we didn't 10, 20 years ago. We're also seeing it with the Russia-Ukraine crisis in ways that Putin did not think were possible, or he never would've invaded Ukraine back on February 24th. Not all crises are like that. Some are too small for us to really bother, like for example, the way we perceive the Buffalo shooting. And frankly, the way we've handled, COVID, both the United States and China. And hopefully none are too big, because if they are then we're really screwed.
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