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The Autocrat's Curse
Thrilled to announce that GZERO has won the Bronze Telly Award for general history for this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer (which was originally published online May 2, 2022.)
Two months ago, Joe Biden said invading Ukraine would cost Russia and Vladimir Putin dearly.
Since then, not much has gone Putin's way. But can he climb down without a win he can sell back home?
While the Russians focus on the Donbas, the US now seems to think it can make Russia lose — which could trigger an escalation if Putin feels he's out of options.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to political scientist Ivan Krastev, who believes Putin has the autocrat's curse: his back is against the wall because he can't be perceived as weak.
Krastev unpacks many of Putin's mounting problems, including his long-term fear of a shrinking Russian population, his miscalculations about the war, and why his biggest blunder has been to misread Ukrainians.
Bonus: What do people in America's largest Russian-speaking community think about the war? We visited "Little Odessa" in Brooklyn, where most have distanced themselves from Russia, support Ukraine and condemn the war itself — but there are still tensions below the surface.
- Putin past the point of no return - GZERO Media ›
- Putin, Ukraine, and the Rat Story - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: The casualties of the Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Is the war in Ukraine a fight for democracy itself? - GZERO Media ›
- The dangers of Russia losing badly - GZERO Media ›
- Putin has "mummified" Russia: Ivan Krastev On the Putin Effect - GZERO Media ›
Putin's mistakes have characterized the war in Ukraine
Joe Biden said invading Ukraine would cost Russia and Vladimir Putin dearly, and indeed, not much has gone Putin's way. But what options does Putin have? Ian Bremmer speaks with Ivan Krastev, political scientist and author of After Europe, who believes Putin has the autocrat's curse: his back is against the wall because he can't be perceived as weak. For Krastev, Putin miscalculated in Ukraine — but in a much deeper way than how the invasion is playing out so far. Krastev offers three explanations: Putin never accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed because communism did, he thought the West is in such decline that he'd get away with it, and Putin wants to fix all Russia's problems in his lifetime.
His "special military operation" has become a punishment because he can't convert Ukrainians, says Krastev. Putin's state media has convinced many Russians that they are really fighting the West. Krastev unpacks many of Putin's problems, including his long-term fear of a shrinking Russian population, his miscalculations about the war, and why his biggest blunder has been to misread Ukrainians. Krastev believes Putin is certainly unhappy with how the war is progressing on the ground, but views himself fighting a longer and more consequential battle with the West.
Surprise, Vladimir Putin: Why Ukrainians resisted Russian "liberation"
Vladimir Putin has made many mistakes in Ukraine, but for political scientist Ivan Krastev, the biggest one was thinking Ukrainians would welcome the Russian invasion.
Perhaps he expected it would be like when he annexed Crimea, but Ukraine clearly did not want to be "liberated," Krastev tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Why? For one thing, he says that Ukrainian public opinion toward Russia has changed a lot since 2014. For another, Putin loves to talk about feeling humiliated but he cares little about humiliating others.
And then there's how Ukrainians and Russians feel differently about the state.
Russians, Krastev explains, believe in a strong state above a strong society, while Ukrainians want the people come before the state — which explains why Russians have traditionally misread Ukraine.
Watch the GZERO World episode: How Putin created Ukraine’s determination to resist
Putin miscalculated on Ukraine, misled by post-Cold War worldview, says Ivan Krastev
For political scientist Ivan Krastev, Vladimir Putin miscalculated in Ukraine — but in a much deeper way than how the invasion is playing out so far.
Why? Krastev offers three explanations in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
First, Putin never accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed because communism did.
Second, he thought the West is in such decline that he'd get away with it.
Third, Putin wants to fix all Russia's problems in his lifetime.
So, how does the Russian leader feel about the war so far? Krastev believes he's definitely not happy with what's going on on the ground, but views himself fighting a longer and more consequential battle with the West.
Watch the GZERO World episode: How Putin created Ukraine’s determination to resist
Putin has "mummified" Russia: Ivan Krastev on the Putin effect
Vladimir Putin has a much bigger long-term problem beyond Ukraine: Russia's population is shrinking, which for political scientist Ivan Krastev will impact how post-Putin Russia looks like because Putin won't let Russians even talk about it.
That's a big deal, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, because the West seems to be primarily focused on isolating Russia while dreaming of a post-Putin world ... without Russia.
Meanwhile, Krastev says the Russians are prepping for a future in which they deal with China instead of the West — which is equally far off for them.
The result of all this will be a Russia that's so isolated that it's like under forever COVID quarantine.
Why? It's the Putin effect, which has killed our capacity to imagine a Russia without him.
Krastev says that Putin, a big fan of the USSR, has leveled up from old Soviet leaders by mummifying Russia itself.
Watch the GZERO World episode: How Putin created Ukraine’s determination to resist
Podcast: Examining Putin: his logic, mistakes, and hope for Ukraine
Listen: Not much has gone right for Vladimir Putin since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. Ian Bremmer speaks to political scientist and author Ivan Krastev, who believes Putin has the autocrat's curse: his back is against the wall because he can't be perceived as weak. Krastev unpacks many of Putin's problems, including his expectations about the "special operation" and how badly he misread Ukrainians. Why did Putin miscalculate so deeply? Krastev offers three explanations: Putin never accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed because communism did; he thought the West was in such decline that he'd get away with the invasion; and a sense that time is running out, because the 70-year-old Putin wants to fix all of Russia's problems in his lifetime.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Putin punishes Ukraine to avoid looking weak - GZERO Media ›
- Putin, Ukraine, and the Rat Story - GZERO Media ›
- Is Putin still Soviet? Wrong question - GZERO Media ›
- Putin past the point of no return - GZERO Media ›
- Russia-NATO confrontation is coming: Putin will escalate - GZERO ... ›
- Podcast: Not infallible: Russia, China, and US democracy with Tom Nichols & Anne-Marie Slaughter - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: The Ukraine war is destroying Putin’s reputation - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Russia's view of the Ukraine war: a Kremlin ally's perspective - GZERO Media ›
Putin punishes Ukraine to avoid looking weak
Russia's war in Ukraine is clearly not going as Vladimir Putin planned.
His "special military operation" has become a punishment because he can't convert Ukrainians, says political scientist Ivan Krastev, author of "After Europe."
Meanwhile, he tells Ian Bremmer, on GZERO World, Putin's state media has convinced many Russians that they are really fighting the West — basically fighting Americans since the propaganda says Ukrainians are really Russians.
"This is why he cannot stop."
So, what comes next? Krastev believes Putin will escalate because he has the autocrat's curse: he cannot be perceived as weak.