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Supporters attend the Pheu Thai Party campaign
Thailand elects new prime minister as exiled leader comes home
Tuesday is a tumultuous day for Thai politics. Thailand’s parliament has elected a new prime minister, thanks to the Pheu Thai Party and pro-military parties – former foes – joining forces to block the Move Forward Party. This made room for billionaire ex-politician Thaksin Shinawatra to return home after 15 years in exile. Shinawatra ruled the Pheu Thai before he was ousted in a military-backed coup in 2006 and fled to Dubai. With the Pheu Thai and the military-backed parties having set aside their differences, a “super deal” between them has allowed for his return.
After landing at home on Tuesday, Shinawatra was taken directly to the Supreme Court, where he was sentenced for three former convictions – which he says were politically motivated – to eight years in prison. He was jailed but is expected to soon receive a royal pardon as part of the deal.
So who’s taking the helm? Parliament elected Pheu Thai leader Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. He will lead the new 11-party coalition that excludes the progressive Move Forward Party, which unexpectedly won the majority in May’s parliamentary elections but has been unable to form a coalition to govern.
The new coalition holds 314 of the 500 seats in Thailand’s House of Representatives. It promises to boost the economy, increase the minimum wage, end mandatory conscription, continue legalizing marijuana, and even rewrite the military-implemented constitution (but it will not touch the royal defamation law, a key tenet of the Move Forward Party’s platform).
Pheu Thai joining forces with military-backed parties is controversial because they were political adversaries in the past. Pheu Thai is being criticized by supporters for backtracking on its pre-election pledge not to join hands with pro-military parties. Moreover, many members of Pheu Thai’s base, known as the “Red Shirts,” died in political violence as they defended Pheu Thai from the pro-military parties trying to eviscerate Shinawatra’s power in 2006. The leader of the Red Shirts resigned on Monday in protest.
Who else will be upset? The millions of young Thai voters who delivered a win to the progressive Move Forward Party back in May – and a rebuke to the military-linked parties in charge – will be angered by today’s events. With their electoral choice upended by political wrangling, street protests by the progressive movement are likely.
Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Thailand's Move Forward Party, reacts after failing to win parliamentary support to become prime minister.
Political trouble brews in the Land of Smiles
Late on Thursday, the Thai parliament rejected opposition leader Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to become the country’s next prime minister. Pita, whose progressive Move Forward Party won the May 14 election, was 51 votes shy of the supermajority needed to clinch the premiership. (For more on that, read our explainer here.)
It's been a hell of a week for the 42-year-old Pita, who campaigned on loosening the country’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, known popularly as "112" for the number of the article in the criminal code. Before losing the vote for the top job, election authorities tried to disqualify him as MP for running while he owned shares in a media company — doing that is illegal under a law that the ruling pro-army coalition passed in order to prevent former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, a media mogul, from ever returning to power.
What’s next? Although parliament will hold another vote next week, Pita is unlikely to do better. His unprecedented push to water down 112 is a bridge too far for the establishment parties whose support he’d need.
If Pita bows out, things could get interesting. Thaksin himself could return from exile under a possible deal between his Pheu Thai party and those that support the military backed-government. But that could trigger protests by angry young Thais who support Pita and the MFP.
Bracing for violent demonstrations, the army has already ringed the parliament building in Bangkok with shipping containers. But if Pita doesn’t get the PM nod, that might not be enough to contain angry Gen-Zers in a country that's seen its fair share of political protests — as well as coups to end them.Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai party, and coalition partner leaders sign an MOU in Bangkok, Thailand.
Uncertain Thai premiership vote
On Monday, the Thai parliament will meet for the first time since the May 14 election to pick the next prime minister. Whoever gets the nod, some people won't be happy about it in a country with a checkered history of political turmoil: shaky governments, colorful protests, and military takeovers.
The candidate with the most support is Pita Limjaroenrat, the baby-faced leader of the progressive Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the election. But a multi-party coalition headed by the MFP doesn't have enough votes to overcome a de facto army veto in the Senate. For more on this, read our primer.
If by some miracle Pita finds the votes to clinch the premiership, the ruling generals will look for ways to oust him, such as using the loyal courts to disqualify him on bogus charges. (The ultra-conservative, royalist elite views Pita as a spoiled brat who wants to kneecap the king's power.)
But the most likely outcome is either an army-backed minority government or the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party — supported by influential ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra — cutting a deal with pro-establishment forces. That might include a pardon for Thaksin to return to Thailand after 15 years in exile.
Either scenario will surely trigger mass protests led by young people, who overwhelmingly voted for Pita and took to the streets in 2020-2021 to challenge the political elite. And if there’s violence, remember the Thai army is the world champion of coups.