In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s historic re-election victory and what it means for the country’s political future and democracy.

Ian says Lula’s win defied a broader conservative wave across Latin America, despite his opponent Flávio Bolsonaro appearing favored after the first round. Higher-than-expected turnout and Lula’s expanded social benefits helped drive the result, while concerns over the election process have fueled claims that the vote was stolen.

Ian acknowledges “significant irregularities” around voting access but says they did not change the outcome, noting that Lula won by three points. He warns that the growing refusal by political leaders and their supporters to accept election results they dislike poses a broader threat to democracy.

Overall, Lula’s victory marks a notable shift for a region that has recently seen a string of conservative electoral wins. Ian says Brazil’s result is particularly significant given its size and influence as Latin America’s largest economy, but warns that the country’s political divisions are far from settled.