A year after Assad’s fall, can Syria hold together?

A year ago this month, Syria’s brutal dictatorship collapsed. Bashar al-Assad, whose family ruled the country for over 50 years, was ousted, bringing an end to 14-year-long civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead.

There are signs of recovery: the UN’s refugee agency said one million refugees and nearly two million internally displaced people have returned home since Assad’s fall, while Syria’s new leadership has brought the country back onto the global stage. Former al-Qaeda commander President Ahmad al-Sharaa – who overthrew Assad, and was once designated by Washington designated a terrorist – formed a transitional government promising economic reconstruction, stronger foreign ties, and reconciliation among Syria’s many ethnic minorities. He has debuted at the United Nations and even the White House, a historic first for a Syrian leader. And earlier this month, US President Donald Trump formally repealed strict sanctions on Syria, potentially unlocking billions in foreign investments.

But one year on, the optimism is fragile. Violence at home threatens to undermine al-Sharaa’s goals. On Dec. 26, a bomb exploded at a mosque in Homs, the country’s third largest city, killing eight worshippers and injuring 18. Protests followed, with thousands of Alawites demanding political reforms and the release of detained community members. Clashes between protesters and security forces have since left four people dead and dozens injured. The incidents are part of a broader pattern of deadly sectarian violence since Syria’s new leaders took power.

New Syria, old problems. Sectarian tensions have shaped Syrian politics for decades, and were deliberately stoked by the Assad regime as a way to maintain power. Under al-Assad, Syria’s government was dominated by Alawites, the minority sect to which he belongs, while the regime portrayed itself as a protector of minorities against a hostile Sunni majority.

Ahmad al-Sharaa has promised a new chapter for Syria – one safe for all communities – but deep divisions have proved hard to overcome. For the first time in more than half a century, power rests with a Sunni leader, worrying the 25% of the population who hail from other sects or religions.

Alawites, roughly 12% of Syrians, say they are being targeted by al-Sharaa supporters for perceived ties to the deposed regime. But the violence cuts both ways: al-Assad loyalists, mostly Alawites, launched a series of attacks on government forces in March. Days of retaliatory violence followed, which resulted in the deaths of 1,400 civilians, most of whom were Alawites. Other minorities who’ve faced violence include the Druze, who are openly calling for independence after violent clashes involved government forces in July, and Christians, who experienced a suicide bombing by an Islamist group at church in June. The longstanding conflict between the separatist Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) and the Syrian army has also persisted near the Turkish border, complicating efforts to integrate Kurdish fighters into the national military.

Internal conflicts impact the region. Turkey has threatened military action unless the SDF disbands and integrates with Syrian state forces by year’s end – a goal unlikely to be met. Israel, meanwhile, has been supporting Druze communities with military equipment and financial assistance due to distrust of al-Sharaa’s intentions. Russia, a staunch backer of the defunct Assad regime, has stepped in to mediate a security agreement between Israel and Syria, after Saudi Arabia warned that Israel’s continued support for the Druze could jeopardize a potential normalization deal between the two.

Overlaying these conflicts is the resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS). In November, Syria joined an international coalition of 90 states to combat the militant group. Since then, ISIS has stepped up attacks in the country, and joint operations with US forces have resulted in the killing and arrests of senior ISIS operatives. Just last Thursday, Syrian forces claimed to have “neutralized” prominent ISIS leader, Mohammad Shahada. Action by Washington followed a Dec. 13 attack in which a suspected ISIS gunman killed three Americans – prompting a confrontation that shows little sign of abating in 2026.

One year on, Syria’s post-Assad moment offers hope on paper and headlines abroad – but at home, sectarian scars and resurgent militancy suggest hard tests for the country are still ahead.