Government shutdown and trade tensions test US economy

As the US economy continues to defy expectations, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Global Macro Robert Kahn says the key question is whether a slowdown has been avoided or merely delayed. “The headline here is the impressive resilience of the US, maybe also the global economy over the last six months,” Kahn tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank–IMF Annual Meetings.

He points to an AI-driven boom and tariff dynamics as major short-term supports, while warning that these trends may not be sustainable. Kahn also highlights deep uncertainty in the US–China trade relationship, describing a “fragile” moment of misunderstanding and escalation. Looking ahead, he flags the uneven nature of US growth and a prolonged government shutdown as key risks that could shift the economic outlook heading into the end of the year.

This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.