Haiti is on borrowed time

Over the past five years, Haiti has endured extreme political turmoil, escalating violence, and one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. And now, Haitians, both in the country and abroad, are facing an especially consequential few weeks.

The mandate of Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council is set to expire on Saturday, throwing the future of the country’s leadership into question as gangs consolidate control. Meanwhile, Haitians in the United States await the fate of Temporary Protected Status (TPS). The program was temporarily saved today by a federal judge, but its 330,000-plus recipients are now living from deadline to deadline in fear that they may be sent back to one of the most dangerous countries in the world.

Since President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, Haiti has been in free fall. Gangs now control nearly 90% of Port-au-Prince, more than 1.4 million people are internally displaced, and nearly six million face acute food insecurity.

The court’s intervention halted, for now, a Trump administration plan to end the status that has shielded Haitians from deportation since the 2010 earthquake. The program was repeatedly extended due to Haiti’s ongoing political and security crisis, but Washington announced last year that it intended to end TPS for several countries, including Afghanistan and Venezuela. The pause prevents immediate removal, but the administration is sure to appeal, leaving Haitians in legal limbo.

TPS holders are an economic lifeline for Haiti. The country receives billions of dollars in remittances, accounting for 16% of its GDP. That loss of income – combined with the sudden arrival of thousands of people back to a nation without security or economic opportunity – would likely further destabilize Haiti and the wider region. Atlantic Council’s Camilla Reitherman, who has been researching Haiti, warns that the influx of thousands of people to a country without the infrastructure or jobs to receive them will likely “increase immigration on the US southern border, the Dominican Republic, and create the grounds for organized crime, drug trafficking, and human trafficking.”

Meanwhile, Haiti is bracing for a period of unclear leadership as the nine-member transitional council currently running the Haitian state sees its authority expire.

The transitional ruling council has primarily had one (very big) job: pave the way for elections after its mandate ends. The nation is now in its fifth year without a president, nearly its tenth without presidential elections. But the spiraling security crisis has made it nearly impossible to create a framework for a democratic transition. The new election plan is set for this summer, but Reitherman says, “without meaningful security gains and full deployment of a gang suppression force, the August 2026 date is questionable.”

Last week, the council added a new layer of uncertainty. The group announced that they’d voted to remove acting Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé before their mandate ends. The council itself appointed Fils-Aimé in 2024, who is also the United States’ preferred choice to lead Haiti. However, the council has been marred by infighting, and the decision to remove Fils-Aimé was seen by experts as a way for council members to maintain their own influence. In response, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Fils-Aimé last month to show Washington’s support, demanded the dissolution of the council, and banned several council members from traveling to the US. “There’s been a strong push from Washington to move away from the [council] and towards just installing Fils-Aime,” says Reitherman.

The Trump administration has shown an increased interest in the governments of Latin America, including removing Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro from power, intervening in Honduras’s election, and applying acute economic pressure to Cuba’s regime. But when it comes to their neighbor in the Caribbean, Reitherman says there’s “not enough interest in terms of what the US can gain,” to expect them to invest in the kind of institution-building and security stabilization the country requires. “They don’t have crazy natural resources, they don’t have the wealth to be a reciprocal trade partner,” she added.

For Haitians in the US, the court’s ruling extending Temporary Protected Status is a temporary relief. The legal fight is far from over. At home, Haiti may wake up this weekend without a governing authority, allowing gangs to further consolidate power. Together, these unresolved crises highlight a familiar pattern: temporary fixes leading to deeper structural collapse. Haiti has bought time, but what it still lacks is a plan.