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The Graphic Truth: Trump's polling gap 2016 vs 2020

October 21, 2020
Carlos Santamaria
and
Ari Winkleman

After Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election despite trailing his opponent Hillary Clinton during almost the entire campaign (and losing the popular vote to her as well), Trump supporters are gunning for a 2020 repeat of his last electoral college victory against Joe Biden, who has consistently led Trump in national polling for months. However, Biden's lead over Trump has been not only mostly larger than Clinton's, but also more consistent, and it has gradually widened as we approach Election Day on November 3. We compare both trajectories, highlighting a few key events that had an impact on Trump's national polling gap at the time with his Democratic challenger.

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