What We're Watching

UAE to exit OPEC, EU-China relations on edge again, Violence erupts in Colombia ahead of election

​UAE's Oil Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei arrives at the OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on June 4, 2023.

UAE's Oil Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei arrives at the OPEC headquarters for a meeting in Vienna, Austria, on June 4, 2023.

REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

It’s official: the UAE splits from OPEC

The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the 12-country cartel that coordinates oil production and exports, on May 1. The Gulf state has long been frustrated with the crude quotas that the group imposes. It will also exit OPEC+, a group that includes other large oil producers like Russia.

The decision is a major blow to OPEC, which produces 37% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, as the UAE is the fourth-largest oil producer within the cartel, and has been a member for six decades. It also comes at a precarious time for the group, as the Strait of Hormuz’s closure is preventing many of its members from exporting crude. The UAE isn’t the first country to exit OPEC, though: Qatar, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Angola have all previously withdrawn. Today’s decision only reinforces Saudi Arabia’s position in within OPEC, and reflects a larger shift in the Gulf, as the Emiratis – once a close friend to Riyadh – are increasingly at odds with their Saudi counterparts.

EU’s “Made in Europe” plan sparks backlash in Beijing

EU-China tensions continue to simmer, with Beijing warning on Monday that it will impose “countermeasures” if the European Union’s planned “Made in Europe” law hurts Chinese companies. The law will require publicly-funded high-tech EU manufacturers to source a certain proportion of their products – such as battery components and inverters for solar panels – from within Europe, and is aimed at reducing the bloc’s reliance on cheap Chinese imports. In 2025, the EU had a trade deficit of €359.8 billion ($485 billion) with China, a margin Brussels desperately wants to narrow. The EU and China have had a topsy-turvy relationship in recent years, and it doesn’t appear to be calming any time soon.

Pre-election violence rocks Colombia

The death toll from a weekend bomb blast on a highway in Colombia has now risen above 20 people. The attack was one of dozens carried out by rebel groups in recent days, and comes as Colombia heads into a hotly contested presidential election next month. As elsewhere in Latin America, security is a top voter concern. Current President Gustavo Petro, the country’s first leftwing leader, has struggled to rein in violence. His chosen successor, Iván Cepeda, leads the polls ahead of the first round vote, but not by enough to avoid a runoff in which he would face a stiff challenge if the right can unite against him. Conservative and rightwing candidates have generally benefitted from security fears in the region. Regardless of the election’s outcome, Colombia’s armed groups are stepping up their attacks to demonstrate to both the government and the electorate that they are a force to be reckoned with.

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