Unpacking Iran’s competing endgames with Brookings Institution’s Thomas Wright

Listen: Ian Bremmer sits down with Thomas Wright, Brookings Institution fellow and former Senior Director at the US National Security Council, to unpack the deepening war in Iran and the divergent strategies shaping it.

What are the possible outcomes for the widening conflict in Iran? What began as a dramatic opening strike has evolved into a far more complex war, with Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran all pursuing different aims. Wright argues this isn’t simply about degrading military capability; it’s about competing endgames that may pull the region in unpredictable directions.

As Wright explains, the United States is hoping for a pragmatic partner inside Iran, while Israel pushes for full regime change. “Trump couldn’t care less if Larijani runs Iran. The Israelis do… They’re going to go full bore for regime change,” he says. At the same time, efforts to fragment the country risk creating “a much bigger problem… a Syria civil war on steroids.”

The conversation also examines how other global players are responding. Europe has been muted, trying to accommodate the US, while China and Russia tread carefully, balancing economic and strategic interests without directly confronting Washington. Wright also discusses domestic implications, including the Pentagon’s evolving relationship with Silicon Valley and how frontier technologies like AI are intersecting with national security concerns.

Looking ahead, Wright outlines both best-and worst-case scenarios — from the emergence of a more legitimate leadership to the specter of fragmentation that could intensify regional instability. With no clear exit ramp in sight, this conversation explores what might come next and why the endgame of this war remains so uncertain.