What comes next in the US-Israel war with Iran?

In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer examines what may come next in the US-Israel war with Iran as the Trump administration signals significantly larger military operations ahead.

Ian notes that Washington has clearly stepped back from calls for regime change. “They’ve backed away from regime change,” he says, arguing there’s no realistic mechanism to produce a stable successor government from the outside. The Iranian opposition is not organized, and the risks of deeper intervention would be high and politically unpopular at home.

So what’s the alternative? Economic leverage. Ian points to the possibility of targeting Kharg Island, which handles roughly 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports. “If you control the oil exports, you have much greater leverage over the regime long term,” he explains.

But that strategy carries a serious downside: decentralized drone attacks, regional instability, and potential energy market disruption across the Gulf.