Is an end to the Iran war in sight?
The 10-day ceasefire negotiated between Israel and Lebanon took effect last night – one that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah acknowledged but hasn’t said whether they’d abide by – has added some momentum to the US-Iran ceasefire talks. US President Donald Trump said Thursday that the war “should be ending pretty soon.” He added that Tehran had agreed to relinquish its enriched uranium – what he referred to as “nuclear dust” – and not develop a nuclear weapon. But Iran hasn’t yet commented on Trump’s claims.
Their foreign minister, though, did say on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz will be open for the remainder of the ceasefire. Whether this will actually happen is up for debate – the Islamic Republic has said that the waterway is open to those who abide by its rules, yet traffic was severely diminished since the war began on Feb. 28. Boats may be reluctant to pass until they get the green light from insurance companies. Meanwhile, a group of mostly-NATO countries is meeting in Paris today to discuss ways they can help open the vital waterway. However, some officials reportedly believe that the plan – which would involve deploying military ships – isn’t up to snuff.
For more on the negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, watch this episode of The Debrief with Eurasia Group’s Greg Brew.
Leftist leaders plot ways to tackle far-right
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will host a major gathering of left-wing leaders in Barcelona today and tomorrow. The aim? To figure out the best way to tackle the rise of the far right – especially in Europe – and to advance liberal priorities like the green energy transition and multilateralism. Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa will also attend. The timing of the meeting is noteworthy: it comes days after the conservative-leaning Péter Magyar ousted far-right Viktor Orbán from power in Hungary, raising questions about whether the center-right is a more effective counterweight to the far right than the left. As such, discussions over how to remain relevant have seldom been more relevant for liberals.
Bulgarian election could give Moscow a new ally inside the EU
The European Union has spent this week celebrating Viktor Orbán's stinging defeat, but Bulgaria may be about to dampen the mood. Bulgaria votes Sunday in its eighth election in five years. The EU state has had no fewer than seven prime ministers since 2021, none serving a full term. Long-running corruption drove hundreds of thousands into the streets last December, bringing down the last cabinet. Polls show the frontrunner is Rumen Radev, a former president who has built his campaign on fighting corruption and has also opposed increasing military aid to Ukraine, argued against EU sanctions on Russia, and wants to reopen dialogue with Moscow. Orbán's loss last weekend removed the EU's most prominent Kremlin-friendly voice – one who used his veto to block support for Ukraine – but some analysts are already asking whether Radev could fill that role.
