Back in January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a call to arms to the world’s middle powers at the World Economic Forum, projecting Canada as a defender of the multilateral global order. But now, at home, a separatist movement threatens to unravel that image – and, if successful, could even fracture Canada itself.
Last week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that her government will hold a referendum this fall asking whether the province should hold a binding vote on secession from Canada. If a majority of voters then called for independence, that vote could kick-start negotiations with Canada to make Alberta a separate state.
On Monday, Carney weighed in, calling Smith’s move a “dangerous bluff” if Albertans believe it will “strengthen their hand” in future negotiations with Ottawa. Smith’s staunchly conservative government is currently demanding greater autonomy, including more control over immigration. The oil-rich province also wants to build a second petroleum pipeline to Canada’s West Coast, a project that currently requires the federal government’s approval.
But the real trouble for Canada – and Carney – could be the referendum’s impact on relations with Washington and the world. Canada and the US are currently renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ahead of a looming July 1 deadline. Carney is also aggressively seeking foreign investment from foreign companies and other countries. Domestic conflict could not just sap Ottawa’s political energy but undermine Carney’s sales pitch that Canada is a “stable, reliable partner, in a world that is anything but.”
Why are Albertans angry? Like many other subnational separatist movements, including those of Scotland, Belgium, and Spain, Alberta’s is fueled by a combination of economics, culture and identity, and an overall sense that its destiny would be better served by controlling its own affairs.
Alberta has long complained that Ottawa has taken its money while damaging its resource industry. Between 1980 and 1984, Ottawa’s National Energy Program imposed price controls on Canadian oil and gas, causing thousands of job losses in the province, while decades of equalization payments redistributed Alberta’s wealth to poorer provinces. Anger intensified over the past decade under former PM Justin Trudeau, whose government introduced carbon pricing, emissions caps, and stricter environmental reviews of new oil and gas projects.
Last year, the Alberta separatist movement channeled these grievances into a referendum campaign, collecting over 300,000 signatures from the province’s 5 million citizens. The campaign suffered a setback, however, when a court threw out the petition earlier this month, ruling that Alberta’s Indigenous peoples had not been adequately consulted, leaving the issue in the hands of the province’s premier.
In light of this decision, which is now under appeal, Smith ultimately decided not to hold a vote on separation this fall, but instead on whether Alberta should begin “the process” to hold a binding referendum on separation in the future – a somewhat confusing move that essentially amounts to a referendum on a referendum. Rather than pacify separatist voters, she appears to have inflamed them. Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer advocating for separation with the Alberta Prosperity Project, claims that Smith “just lost her base” because of the framing — and, in the current geopolitical context, this could have broader political implications.
The American factor. Rath’s group sees an opportunity for the Alberta independence movement south of the border and has traveled to Washington to explore it. Last year, members claimed to have met with “cabinet-level” officials in the Trump administration. The meeting was not confirmed by the White House, but US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later told a conservative podcast that Alberta was “a natural partner” for the US and there is a “rumor that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not.”
Canada currently supplies roughly 60% of US crude oil imports, with Alberta accounting for the overwhelming majority, and the Trump administration appears ready to expand that relationship: it recently greenlit an extension to the Keystone pipeline, a 1,200-mile-long route intended to carry crude between Canada and the US that had been quashed by the Biden administration.
Statements like Bessent’s, along with US President Donald Trump’s musings about making Canada the 51st state, have fueled concern that an independent Alberta might join the United States. Currently, only 17% of Albertans support that idea. However, over 70% believe the United States would use economic and political pressure to compel an independent Alberta to join the US, while more than half believe Washington would resort to military means to do so.
While an American annexation is not currently on the horizon, the very fact that the province is considering leaving creates political insecurity within Canada. Investors could hit pause on oil and gas development projects over concerns of instability, dampen economic growth, and weaken Canada’s hand in trade negotiations with the US.
Where do Albertans sit on independence? A recent poll shows that 60% of voters in the province would vote no on holding a future referendum on separation. But members of Smith’s governing United Conservative Party (UCP), which commands over half the support of Alberta voters, feel the opposite: 64% of UCP voters intend to vote yes to kickstart the process of holding a binding vote, while 57% are in favor of separation itself.
Even if Alberta never achieves independence, the movement has the potential to weaken the Canadian federation and consume its politics for decades, much as the separatist movement in Quebec did from the 1960s to the early 2000s. The ensuing political turmoil there raised Quebec’s cost of borrowing and increased its debt, pushed 100,000 people to leave the province over four years, increased unemployment, and led the federal government to attempt twice to amend the Canadian constitution to satisfy Quebec, to no avail. Ironically, today the Quebec separatist movement is also resurging ahead of the province’s October elections — meaning that Ottawa could be dealing with two separatist movements simultaneously, and turn Carney’s focus from rebuilding the international order to keeping his own country together.
