US strikes on Iran won’t stop negotiations, Brazil’s scandal-plagued Bolsonaro seeks Trump boost, Hong Kong becomes leading hub for offshore funds

US-Iran: Is a deal still possible?

The merry-go-round of negotiations between the two countries continues. The latest began on Saturday, when US President Donald Trump said an agreement was “largely negotiated,” before Iran poured cold water on this. The US military then hit Iranian missile launchers and boats suspected of dropping mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran denounced those strikes yesterday, calling them a sign of “bad faith and unreliability.”

Yet Monday’s skirmishes in the Strait don’t “undermine the ceasefire or indicate talks are at risk of breaking down,” according to Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew. He added that both sides made clear that they didn’t plan a return to fighting. “Neither side wants to derail talks,” said Brew. Trump will gather his Cabinet today to further discuss negotiations. Complicating matters, though, is that Israel started pounding Hezbollah-controlled areas of Lebanon on Tuesday – Tehran has said that a ceasefire must include one between Israel and the militant group.

Meanwhile Iranians are starting to get back online, albeit slowly and not for the majority of the country. This latest internet shutdown, which lasted nearly three months, has battered the already-ravaged economy, costing the country an estimated $30 to 40 million each day. Iran, as Eurasia Group’s Head of Research Jon Lieber noted recently, is eager to achieve a new status quo and move on from the conflict.

---

Flavio Bolsonaro flexes friendship with Trump amid corruption scandal

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday in Washington, D.C., in an apparent attempt to boost his presidential campaign ahead of October’s election. Bolsonaro – the son of jailed former president and Trump ally, Jair Bolsonaro – has been neck-and-neck with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls, but a recent major corruption scandal involving an alleged request for $12 million from a banker jailed for corruption has hurt his polling numbers. Bolsonaro is not the first conservative politician to lean on Trump’s friendship ahead of an election: the US president publicly endorsed Hungary’s Viktor Orbán ahead of the April election there, although some argue that his support hurt Orbán in the end. Will the move pay off for Bolsonaro?

Hong Kong overtakes Switzerland as wealth destination

For as long as anyone can remember, few things have been cooler or more mysterious to have than “a Swiss bank account.” But now there’s a new leader in clandestine money-keeping: as of 2025, Hong Kong has surpassed Switzerland as the world’s top cross-border wealth hub, booking nearly $3 trillion worth of international assets last year. The shift comes as investors seek to diversify their wealth-parking spots amid growing geopolitical tension and uncertainty. But above all it reflects massive new wealth in China, which by itself is the source of 60% of Hong Kong inflows. It was just a few years ago, mind you, that Hong Kong suffered an exodus of international capital because of Beijing’s draconian new security laws that tightened the mainland’s grip on the island. But private wealth doesn’t seem to mind at all, making “a Hong Kong bank account” the new flex of all flexes.