US-Iran: Is a deal still possible?
The merry-go-round of negotiations between the two countries continues. The latest began on Saturday, when US President Donald Trump said an agreement was “largely negotiated,” before Iran poured cold water on this. The US military then hit Iranian missile launchers and boats suspected of dropping mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran denounced those strikes yesterday, calling them a sign of “bad faith and unreliability.”
Yet Monday’s skirmishes in the Strait don’t “undermine the ceasefire or indicate talks are at risk of breaking down,” according to Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew. He added that both sides made clear that they didn’t plan a return to fighting. “Neither side wants to derail talks,” said Brew. Trump will gather his Cabinet today to further discuss negotiations. Complicating matters, though, is that Israel started pounding Hezbollah-controlled areas of Lebanon on Tuesday – Tehran has said that a ceasefire must include one between Israel and the militant group.
Meanwhile Iranians are starting to get back online, albeit slowly and not for the majority of the country. This latest internet shutdown, which lasted nearly three months, has battered the already-ravaged economy, costing the country an estimated $30 to 40 million each day. Iran, as Eurasia Group’s Head of Research Jon Lieber noted recently, is eager to achieve a new status quo and move on from the conflict.
Flavio Bolsonaro flexes friendship with Trump amid corruption scandal
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday in Washington, D.C., in an apparent attempt to boost his presidential campaign ahead of October’s election. Bolsonaro – the son of jailed former president and Trump ally, Jair Bolsonaro – has been neck-and-neck with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls, but a recent major corruption scandal involving an alleged request for $12 million from a banker jailed for corruption has hurt his polling numbers. Bolsonaro is not the first conservative politician to lean on Trump’s friendship ahead of an election: the US president publicly endorsed Hungary’s Viktor Orbán ahead of the April election there, although some argue that his support hurt Orbán in the end. Will the move pay off for Bolsonaro?


















