​What We’re Watching: Milei’s smashing election night, Brazil’s Lula eyes US trade deal, Sudan’s rebel forces seize stricken Darfur town

Argentina’s Milei bounces back in midterms

Argentine President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party surged in yesterday’s parliamentary elections, getting more than 40% of the vote – against just 32% for the opposition Peronists – winning enough seats to ensure the opposition can’t override the president’s veto. Milei was in a tough spot ahead of the vote, facing a stagnating economy, a corruption scandal involving his sister, and dwindling central bank reserves (a result of his policy of propping up the peso). But the results suggest Argentine voters appreciate the “anarcho-capitalist” outsider’s efforts to tame inflation via economic “shock therapy.” Argentine bonds surged following the results, which gives Milei a mandate to continue with his approach while also opening the way for a $20 billion bailout from the United States.

Can Trump and Lula make a deal?

After meeting with Trump at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia yesterday, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvasaid a new US-Brazil trade deal is “guaranteed.” In June, US President Donald Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting the country’s controversial content moderation policies, demanding an end to the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges, and accusing the country of “unfair” trade practices (note: the US actually runs a surplus with Brazil). Is a deal possible? Lula won’t change tack on content moderation, nor is he going to “free” Bolsonaro. What else might Washington seek from Brazil instead? Trump seems less certain of a deal than Lula, saying only “we’ll see.”

Sudan’s Darfur region falls to the Rapid Support Forces

In a fresh turn for Sudan’s brutal civil war, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have pushed their rivals in the Sudanese Army out of El Fasher, a key city in the Darfur region. The move gives the RSF broader control over Western Sudan. El Fasher has been under siege since April, with civilians trapped inside enduring extreme famine and violence. The RSF, which has been accused of genocide by the US, was driven out of eastern and central Sudan, as well as the capital, Khartoum, earlier this year.