Putin's gulag gamble with Navalny

MOSCOW, RUSSIA - FEBRUARY 2, 2021: Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny makes a heart gesture during a hearing into an application by the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service to convert his suspended sentence of three and a half years in the Yves Rocher case into a real jail term

The Kremlin is taking zero chances with opposition leader Alexei Navalny. On Tuesday, a Moscow court sentenced him to nearly three years in prison for violating the terms of his parole in connection with an earlier graft conviction.

To refresh, Navalny is Vladimir Putin's most prominent critic. He is an outspoken anti-corruption crusader who was poisoned, allegedly by state officials, in Russia last fall. After recovering in Germany, he returned to Russia where he was promptly arrested. Since then, there have been two weekends of relatively small, but uncommonly widespread, protests across Russia in his support.

The extended jail sentence is a change of tack for the Kremlin, which has previously jailed Navalny only for short stints or suspended sentences. (You might also say that attempting to kill him was a "different approach" too, but we leave it to you to evaluate that allegation here.)

Now Navalny will languish in a remote penal colony for at least several years, meaning he will be out of the picture while Russia holds legislative elections this fall, and also during the the run-up to the next presidential election in 2024.

By taking the gloves fully off with Navalny, Putin is betting on a couple of things:

First, by packing him off to prison, Russia's president believes he can silence Navalny's uniquely charismatic, media-savvy, and fearless voice for good. Will Navalny — or his family and his fellow anti-corruption crusaders — find a way to stay relevant now? The internet, which is where Navalny lives most comfortably, is still relatively free in Russia.

Second, Putin calculates that his own support is strong enough where it matters: among the two-thirds of Russians who still approve of him after two decades in power, among the police who will will keep a lid on the streets, and among his wealthy cronies who still have much more to lose by turning against him than by sticking with him.

Third, by seeking to crush Navalny, he is forcing Russians to accept that any change to the system can come in only one of two ways: on Putin's terms, through a voluntary decision to cede power after 2024, or on the terms of the streets, through a kind of revolutionary upheaval from below that very few Russians would wish to see.

And fourth, Putin is betting that he can brush off whatever measures the "West" unveils in response to Navalny's plight. Strongly worded statements will abound, and specific Russian officials may be sanctioned. But will Western capitals really have the stomach to rankle financial markets by sanctioning, say, Russia's sovereign debt, or mess with energy markets by hitting Russian oil and gas?

Ranged against all of this, Navalny and his supporters are betting that while the Russian president may be correct in the short run, he faces a longer term loss of legitimacy that will eventually turn the tide of opinion — both popular and elite — against him as he nears a quarter of a century in power.

High stakes for both sides, but for the foreseeable future, only one of them will be gambling from prison.

More from GZERO Media

A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.
REUTERS/Marton Monus

Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event.

American President Donald Trump's X Page is seen displayed on a smartphone with a Tiktok logo in the background
Avishek Das / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect

In August 1991, a handful of high-ranking Soviet officials launched a military coup to halt what they believed (correctly) was the steady disintegration of the Soviet Union. Their first step was to seize control of the flow of information across the USSR by ordering state television to begin broadcasting a Bolshoi Theatre production ofSwan Lake on a continuous loop until further notice.

Small businesses are more than just corner shops and local services. They’re a driving force of economic growth, making up 90% of all businesses globally. As the global middle class rapidly expands, new opportunities are emerging for entrepreneurs to launch and grow small businesses.

U.S. President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a NATO leaders summit in The Hague, Netherlands June 25, 2025.
REUTERS

The two-day NATO summit at the Hague wrapped on Wednesday. The top line? At an event noticeably scripted to heap flattery on Donald Trump, alliance members agreed to the US president’s demand they boost military spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade.