In the 2015 election, the Canadian Conservatives aired an ad that was designed to stop the Justin Trudeau juggernaut that was about to drive them from office.
The ad — called The Interview — showed a Canadian “hiring committee” reviewing résumés from applicants. One of them was Trudeau, whose most significant job before politics was in a high school classroom.
“Let’s start with the experience section,” says one panelist. “Nothing about balancing a budget or making a payroll.”
When the panelists reluctantly conclude he isn’t qualified for the job, one of them jokes: “Nice hair, though.”
In the end, Canadians decided to take a gamble on the former high school teacher with the nice hair and famous last name. But 10 years later, in a more dangerous world, they made a different choice, picking Mark Carney, an economist with a far longer résumé: He has, for one thing, headed two central banks.
Carney won the election last month by presenting himself as an ultra-qualified Mr. Fixit, a resourceful and cool-headed technocrat who can handle Donald Trump’s annexation threats and shield Canada’s economy from the worst effects of Trump’s tariffs.
But now that he’s in office, he’s under pressure to deliver. What can we learn about how good his tools and skills are?
The first test was his trip to see Trump. Carney won points at home for firmly telling the US President that Canada would never be for sale. Even though the US president replied, “Never say never,” Carney still received good marks for getting through a reasonably cordial Oval Office meeting with his dignity intact. So far, so good.
Then he appointed a “change” cabinet that… isn’t. After going from triumph to triumph, winning a leadership race, an election and successfully wrangling Trump, Carney was engaged in the drabber business of placating and constituencies and slotting politicians into roles. For a candidate who promised a lot on the campaign trail, the result was underwhelming.
He made a show of cutting the size of his temporary cabinet before the election, but the new cabinet is the same size as Justin Trudeau’s, if you include 10 secretaries of state who are not full ministers.
By long tradition, Canadian cabinets are put together with a careful eye on regional and demographic balance, and Carney followed in that tradition rather than interpreting his election mandate as an opportunity to shake things up and come up with a team more focused on rapid action.
But the proof will be in the pudding, not the presentation, and he has some talented people in key roles.
Gifted schmoozer Dominic LeBlanc will remain in charge of the Canada-US file — a shrewd move given that he is a texting buddy of US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — while appointing former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, who has famously clashed with Trump, as minister of transport and internal trade. That will keep her clear of Trump while also applying her fierce intellect to the challenge of removing interprovincial trade barriers, which Carney swears will more than make up for US tariffs.
He also left smooth-talking Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne in place, but everyone expects the economist prime minister to take a lively interest in Champagne’s files, since he won the election by promising to act swiftly on key economic issues: increasing the housing supply and approving new energy projects.
On that last score, during the campaign, he avoided being pinned down on whether he would approve new pipelines — long a sore point for Western Canadians and a sensitive issue for eco-conscious Quebecers. But pressed in a postelection interview on whether he would actually build pipelines, given environmental concerns, Carney was finally clearer.
Of course he would, he said. “It’s not enough to make Canada an energy superpower. It’s not enough to build our full potential. It’s not enough to truly get incomes growing across the country. We can do much more. We are going to be very ambitious. Build big. Build bold. Build now.”
But Carney has not said what, aside from housing, he intends to build. That is likely because exactly what he can build will depend on proponents stepping forward with capital — and his ability to find willing partners in the provincial capitals and Indigenous governments. Trump’s threats have shaken public opinion, and created a new appetite for resource development, but getting them done depends on finding private sector proponents and willing partners in provincial capitals and Indigenous communities.
The uncertainty around the dominant trade relationship with the United States may make it hard to attract capital, but Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio is dramatically lower than the United States, so he has fiscal room to borrow, and has convinced voters that they should give him a mandate to do that, partly by promising to cut spending but increase investments.
He is betting his political future on his ability to keep the economy going one way or another, even if US tariffs put a huge damper on growth.
Those are big promises. But the flip side of big promises is great expectations.
“He certainly benefited from the idea that he has this sort of economic superpower,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson. “The danger of high expectations politically is that if they’re not met, it’s quite a quick fall.”
