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China-US tensions over COVID origins & Russia's war
But a couple of points here. First, this lab-leak concept was one that would get you banned on social media if you came out with it a year ago. And it just goes to show how you can have a dominant narrative that gets picked up politically and suddenly no one's allowed to ask questions anymore. That doesn't make it a conspiracy theory, it means that people are still trying to understand where it is, what's going on. There was so much that was uncertain about this disease in the early days. One of the things that annoyed me about Fauci, who I've interviewed a couple of times myself, gotten to know him a bit, is the fact that he came out feeling like he was so certain in some of his early communications, on things that he obviously wasn't certain about, and ended up undermining and de-legitimizing science and the medical community in the US in a way that we really cannot afford to do so.
Saying you don't know something is okay. I mean, back last May, I published the fact that I had no idea if it came from a lab or if it came from a wet market. What was clear to me is that it was getting politicized. What was clear from the scientific community is that the disease had not been bioengineered, that it was an accident that it came out. What was also clear is the Chinese lied to their own citizens and internationally, about the virus's origins, when they knew that there was human-human transmission. They lied to the WHO, the World Health Organization, and as a consequence, it was much worse for everyone. And they're still not allowing the WHO or others to investigate appropriately the origins. The fact that the country that the virus came from is not willing to be transparent with the global scientific community. I mean, thankfully there were a bunch of doctors and scientists in China that had humanity and said, "We got to get this out no matter what." Or it would've been even worse.
But it's an enormous problem when politics intervenes in what needs to be just a follow-the-science situation. And that's true on climate, it's true on the pandemic, it's true in so many areas of the world. And in that regard, we haven't changed much at all from today through the beginnings of the pandemic. This, of course, is going to make the Americans feel tougher about relations with China. That is also true on the back of China embracing, welcoming Belarus President/Dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, completely illegitimate leader of that country, using all sorts of repression and force against his own domestic opposition. No free press of course. Again, not surprising for the Chinese at all, but one of Russia's key allies, this on the back of Wang Yi visiting Moscow, and what I expect, relatively soon, will be an announcement that Xi Jinping is going to Moscow. There is a greater comfort of these two countries working more closely together.
Does that mean that the Chinese will provide weapons directly for Russia? I don't think so. I think that's indeed why the Americans put the Chinese on notice. They had intelligence that the Chinese were considering sending drones over. The UK, the NATO Secretary General, also making those statements very strongly. The Europeans and the Americans would have a very different reaction if the Chinese decided to go ahead and put those weapons forward. Now diplomatically, what the Chinese have been saying to the Europeans behind closed doors is, "Look, you guys are providing all these weapons. You're escalating. We are showing restraint." Having said that, if you want to call BS on what the Chinese are saying, you say, "Look, a majority of the world's countries recognize, and have recognized for three straight General Assembly resolutions, that this is an illegal invasion that needs to be condemned and ended immediately. The Chinese have decided that they're going to be neutral and abstain. But most of the world's countries, even the Global South, do not agree with China on this.
That's important, because if the Chinese were to provide weapons to the country that actually invaded, illegally, against the will of the General Assembly, the Chinese are putting themselves in the position of supporting a rogue state. And that is not a position China wants to be in. Not a country that needs economic support and integration from all of the world, not just countries they dominate economically. So I believe that the Chinese may have been fooling around with the idea of providing some weapons to Russia, may have been floating that because they wanted more influence with their own 12-point peace deal. But I would be very surprised if they proceed in providing that support. That's a good thing, in the context of US-China news that right now have very few positive headlines that we're talking about.
So that's it for me. Hope everyone's well, I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Five concessions McCarthy made to become House speaker
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
What did Kevin McCarthy have to promise to become the Speaker of the House?
Now Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy survived a modern record of 15 votes to become speaker of the House earlier this week. He had to make some compromises to get there. Here are the top five changes to House rules that Kevin McCarthy agreed to in order to win the speakership.
Number one, a return of the motion to vacate the chair. Probably the biggest concession given by McCarthy was lowering the threshold for any individual member to bring a motion that would force a vote on a speakership. Under Pelosi, this would've required half majority. McCarthy wanted it to require five people, but conservatives insisted that it be done with only one person, allowing any individual member to set up a vote at any time on McCarthy's fate, potentially setting up another painful week of votes later this year if they decide to take him out.
Number two, no new taxes. It wasn't really necessary to put this in the rules since there's almost no chance Republicans are going to raise taxes, but they restored a rule that would've required a three-fifths house majority in order to raise tax rates this year. This gives them some flexibility to do what's called base broadening or closing loopholes, but I would be shocked to see that too. Don't expect any new spending bills or any big tax bills moved in this Congress.
Number three, more transparency. A big complaint for rank-and-file members is that they have no say in what bills get to the floor and very little say in what gets in them. A new rule would require a 72-hour holdover period before a vote, mandate single subject bills to prevent so-called Christmas trees where a lot of things get jammed into a bill at the last minute and give rank and file members and particularly conservatives who now have seats in the rules committee, more say in what bills get to the floor and guarantee amendment votes. We'll see how well this process holds up later this year when Democrats want Republicans to take politically challenging votes and members have to pass complicated must pass bills to deliver for their constituents.
Number four, bring back the Holman rule. This rule allows Congress to amend spending bills to cut specific programs or reduce the salaries of specific federal government employees. This idea was set to be weaponized against Biden health advisor, Anthony Fauci, but he retired, but it could be used against specific employees Republicans think are not doing their job, say, guarding the border. But it would have to become law first, which brings up a huge problem for much of the Republican agenda, the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats who are not going to agree to anything that Republicans want to do this year.
And finally, number five, big cuts in discretionary spending. This measure wasn't actually written into the rules, but was part of a rumored side agreement with specific members to cut discretionary spending levels back to the levels they were at last year in FY22. The parts of the federal government that Congress controls annually have grown about nearly 30% since the beginning of the pandemic and conservatives want to see cuts to the budget. The only problem is that some of that spending, particularly on defense, is broadly supported by a huge swath of Republicans. And to achieve the cuts they have in mind, which would include balancing the budget within 10 years, there would have to be cuts as big as 10% to the defense budget and then trillions of dollars taken out of federal health programs and social support budget.
None of this is going to happen, but conservatives have set up very high hopes for the year, and if they are disappointed, they have the ability to make sure that Kevin McCarthy's speakership, which he worked so hard to get, does not last that long.
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Vaccine hesitancy at home and exporting vaccines abroad: Dr. Anthony Fauci
One the many reasons Fauci offers: "One of the most common is they say, 'Well, it was so fast.' We always talk about vaccines requiring years to develop...And when we explain to people that this is just a reflection of the exquisite advances in the science of vaccine platform technology and immunogen technology...we can win more people over than you can imagine." Dr. Fauci also tackles the question of when, and how, to start exporting vaccines abroad.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Dr. Fauci's Pandemic Prognosis
Dr. Fauci on school re-openings and when average Americans can get vaccinated
Now that millions of high-priority Americans have been vaccinated, many people in low-risk groups are starting to ask the same question: when's my turn? Dr. Anthony Fauci, America's top infectious diseases expert, has an answer, but probably not the one they're hoping for: "It probably won't be until May or June before we can at least start to get the normal non-prioritized person vaccinated." On GZERO World, Dr. Fauci also addresses another burning question: why aren't schools reopening faster? And while Dr. Fauci acknowledges that reopening schools must be a top priority, he has no quick fixes there, either. In fact, that's kind of a theme of the interview.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Dr. Fauci's Pandemic Prognosis
Dr. Fauci's pandemic prognosis
The country's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, joins Ian Bremmer to talk vaccines, school re-openings, and when—and how—the pandemic could finally come end. He was last on GZERO World just weeks before the pandemic hit in the fall of 2019 and he described at the time what kept him up at night: a "pandemic-like respiratory illness." This time, he'll talk about how closely that nightmare scenario foreshadowed the COVID-19 pandemic. He'll also offer some guidance about what public health measures vaccinated Americans should continue to take in the coming months (hint: masks stay on).
Podcast: Dr. Fauci's Pandemic Prognosis
Listen: The country's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, joins Ian Bremmer to talk vaccines, school re-openings, and when—and how—the pandemic could finally come end. He was last on GZERO World just weeks before the pandemic hit in the fall of 2019 and he described at the time what kept him up at night: a "pandemic-like respiratory illness." This time, he talks about how closely that nightmare scenario foreshadowed the COVID-19 pandemic. He also offers some guidance about what public health measures vaccinated Americans should continue to take in the coming months (hint: masks stay on).
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Dr. Fauci on the world's nightmare year and when the COVID-19 pandemic could end
In the fall of 2019, weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic would change the world, Ian Bremmer asked Dr. Fauci what kept him up at night and he described a "a pandemic-like respiratory infection." Fast-forward to late February 2021 and Dr. Fauci tells Ian, "I think we are living through much of that worst nightmare." Dr. Fauci returns to GZERO World to take stock of the nightmare year and to paint a picture of what the end of the pandemic could look like—and when it could finally arrive.
Catch the full episode of GZERO World, where Dr. Fauci discusses the latest in vaccine roll out, schools re-openings, and plenty more, on US public television stations nationwide, beginning Friday, February 26. Check local listings.
Dr. Fauci’s cautious take on post-vaccine life
Dr. Tony Fauci has faced renewed heat lately from critics across the political spectrum, including The View's Meghan McCain, who feel the White House has not provided clear enough guidance to Americans about how to navigate the pandemic. And as millions receive their second jab of COVID-19 vaccines, demands for clear guidelines about what vaccinated Americans can or cannot do have grown louder. On GZERO World, Dr. Fauci offers more context, but stops short from providing definitive answers, about post-vaccine life. "You know, things will change gradually because we want to accumulate data....Just because you're vaccinated, restaurants are not going to open. Ball games are not going to be played necessarily. Theaters are not going to be open."
Ian Bremmer's conversation with Dr. Fauci is part of the latest episode of GZERO World, which will begin airing on US public television nationwide Friday, February 26th. Check local listings.