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What We’re Watching: Irish reunification, China’s COVID passports, Ethiopian election boycott
Will Northern Ireland leave the UK? Unifying the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland into one sovereign state has long been a pipedream for Irish nationalists. But recent polls reveal that public sentiment is changing. The combination of demographic shifts and Brexit, which resulted in Northern Ireland exiting the EU as part of the UK, have upped support to break away from London in the near term: one survey found that 42 percent of people in Northern Ireland support reunification, and the number was even higher among the under-45 cohort (47 to 46 percent). Meanwhile, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party, which made massive gains in Ireland's general election last year, recently said that Dublin, Belfast, and London need to start getting ready for Irish reunification — and soon. But the issue is extremely difficult to reconcile: The 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of bloodshed between Irish nationalists and pro-UK unionists, says that a united Ireland can only be achieved if most Northern Irelanders consent. However, in 2016 most Northern Irish (56 percent) did say they wanted to stay in the EU. Could an Irish reunification referendum actually happen soon?
China launches COVID passport: As the global vaccine effort is well underway, with 313 million shots having been given in 118 countries, China has become one of the first countries in the world to issue an official certificate to show proof of vaccination and test results. Chinese officials are hoping that the new vaccine documents will boost both domestic and international travel for Chinese citizens, but there are two big remaining issues: To date China has only inoculated 4 percent of its population. Though that's still a lot of people, it has a lot of vaccinations to give before this program can really get off the ground. Additionally, it's still unclear which countries will accept China's COVID passport — and which nations Beijing will be willing to accept similar documents from. It's likely that some of the dozens of countries that China is already supplying its own vaccines to, as well as those with tourism-dependent economies that are desperate for cash from Chinese travelers, will be willing to play ball. Nevertheless, China's decision is a major development in the immunity passport saga,and could spur other nations to adopt similar measures as vaccinations become more widespread.
Ethiopian opposition boycotts vote: Two of Ethiopia's main opposition parties have pulled out of the country's June legislative election, citing the jailing of some of their leaders and interference with their parties' operations by the incumbent government. The election is seen as a major test for embattled Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose reputation as a peace lover has taken a massive hit since launching a military offensive in the Tigray region last year, which has displaced over 2 million people. Interestingly, the two factions who are boycotting the polls are ethnic Oromo nationalist parties that used to support Abiy — an Oromo himself — until two years ago, when the PM opened Pandora's box by ushering in ambitious reforms that many Oromos viewed as detrimental to their interests. The tensions boiled over last summer, when Ethiopia was swept by mass protests following the murder of an Oromo nationalist singer. Abiy responded by cracking down on Oromo activists, deepening ethnic tensions in the already divided state. Indeed, Ethiopia's leader is now in a tough spot: his ruling party will now surely win the vote, but that victory will be regarded as illegitimate by large swaths of the population due to the opposition boycott. Expect more political turbulence in the ethnically diverse country as we get closer to the election.
What We're Watching: Hajj passports, AfD vs German intelligence, Turkey's human rights plan
Passport to the Hajj — Saudi Arabia announced that it will require pilgrims to have vaccine passports in order to enter the country for the annual Hajj later this year. Each year, millions of Muslims from dozens of countries travel to the holy sites of Mecca and Medina to fulfill a religious obligation, in an annual event that brings in billions of dollars for the Saudi economy. The vaccine passport requirement may mean that people without means or access to vaccines in their home countries will be shut out of the Hajj this year, but Riyadh is relying on the scheme to help them pull off the event — after last year's event was mainly cancelled amid the pandemic— without fomenting a COVID outbreak.
Alternative für Surveillance — The German government has reportedly placed the far-right Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party under surveillance for its far-right extremist affiliations. AfD, a euroskeptic party with a strongly anti-Islam platform, has been the largest opposition party in Germany's legislature since 2017, but its popularity has trailed off over the past year. The move will allow German intelligence to tap the party's phones and surveil its communications. The AfD, for its part, says that being placed under surveillance will hurt the group's ability to compete in a spate of local elections and the general election this fall. And if AfD doesn't do well, its supporters will almost certainly dismiss the election as illegitimate, taking a leaf out of the pro-Trump playbook. (After the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, an AfD lawmaker wrote, "Trump is fighting the same political fight — you have to call it a culture war — as we in the Alternative for Germany are in Germany.")
Turkey to embrace human rights? — Turkey's pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is turning over a new leaf, he says, with an 11-point human rights program to be rolled out over the next two years. The somewhat skimpy plan includes judiciary and criminal justice reforms, new human rights watchdogs, and expanded legal protections for women. The move could be a precursor to writing a more "democratic" constitution, Ankara says. For years, Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party have been accused of human rights abuses, targeting journalists, and cracking down on political opponents — trends that only intensified after a failed coup attempt against Erdogan in 2016. While Erdogan's embrace of a rights-based approach to domestic policy is certainly a step in the right direction, the talk of rewriting the constitution has set humans rights groups on edge — they worry that Erdogan will use the process to strengthen his own powers even further. The timing of Erdogan's transformation is also interesting: his approval rating is sagging as unemployment remains high, while inequality worsened during the pandemic.What We're Watching: WHO vaccine passports, Australia vs Big Tech, Nigeria's military shake-up
Pros and cons of vaccine passports: As a growing number of countries roll out COVID vaccines, the World Health Organization has started working on a global "vaccine passport" certification that it hopes will be recognized across the globe. In theory, such a document would exempt global travelers from having to provide negative tests and undergo quarantines upon arrival. But here is where it gets tricky: While countries whose economies are heavily reliant on tourism like Greece are lobbying in favor of the effort so they can get tourists back in their hotels and restaurants, it's still unclear whether vaccinated people, who are protected from getting sick themselves, can transmit the virus to others. If some countries or regions jump the gun and lift restrictions for those with proof of vaccination, it could lead to a potential deluge of infections which would in turn result in fresh lockdowns and more economic turmoil. On the other hand, if vaccines do provide to be a safeguard against disease transmission, a global standard to verify who's gotten the jab could avoid the chaos associated with different nations' medical standards. The WHO has done it before with its famous "yellow card" that documents vaccinations against a range of diseases like rubella and cholera. Will it be able to come up with a paperless version that will be broadly accepted?
Australia takes on Big Tech: In the latest row in the Big Tech world, Google has threatened to cut off search engine access for all Australian users (19 million each month) after a proposed bill would require Google and Facebook to pay a licensing fee to media companies for sharing their content. Facebook followed up by warning it'll block Australian users from posting news stories to its feeds if the bill turns into law. Google says it's willing to negotiate, but that the Australian bill goes too far. Specifically, the tech giant rejects establishing an automatic arbitration model which would allow Australian courts to decide how much Google should pay if it can't reach an agreement directly with a publisher (this would open Google up to infinite financial risks, the company says). The row with Australia is surely a sign of what's to come around the globe. While the EU agreed to a bloc-wide copyright rule in 2019, some individual nations still need to pursue their own additional copyright laws — France recently did so and subsequently struck a deal with Google over licensing fees for content producers. But those who haven't done so yet will be watching the outcome of the messy dispute with Australia very, very closely.
Nigerian military reshuffle: In response to growing pressure to improve Nigeria's rapidly deteriorating security situation, President Muhammadu Buhari, who came to power promising to oversee an era of safety and stability in Nigeria, has taken the bold step of replacing military commanders and the entire defense department. Although he didn't give a reason for the reshuffle, Buhari — a former general who led a military junta that ruled Nigeria in the early 1980s but was elected as a civilian in 2015 — has struggled to make progress on the multiple security crises facing the country. Nigeria is currently suffering a spike in jihadist violence from Boko Haram and Islamic State-affiliated groups, fresh attacks by pirates in the Gulf of Guinea, bloody clashes between Christian farmers and mostly Muslim nomadic herders, and a resurgent separatist movement in Biafra. What's more, Nigeria is still reeling from the popular backlash against police brutality that sparked the #EndSARS protests last October. Interestingly, the new top brass is considerably younger than the previous military leadership, but it remains to be seen whether they can get the job done.