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Hunter Biden's legal issues are an opportunity for GOP
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Is President Biden's son Hunter a political liability for him?
This week, an extraordinary scene played out in a courtroom in Delaware as a judge rejected a plea deal that was negotiated by lawyers for President Biden's son Hunter over illegal possession of a firearm and tax evasion. Republicans have been criticizing the plea deal for weeks, saying it was far too lenient on the president's son, and reflected what they've called a two-tier justice system being pursued by federal law enforcement. One tier is attempting to prosecute former President Trump for mishandling classified documents and his role in trying to overturn the election results in 2020, and another that is giving the current president's son a slap on the wrist that would've provided him immunity from far more serious charges that he acted as an unregistered foreign agent.
The younger Biden has struggled with drug addiction and has been involved in what seems to be some very shady business deals, including serving in lucrative board positions for foreign companies, despite seemingly offering very little value other than his last name, and making significant sums of money selling his art to democratic donors and others trying to curry favor with the Biden administration. Despite this, President Biden has defended him and kept him close, even inviting him to the state dinner last month with Indian Prime Minister Modi. And though Biden sees no threat to his reelection campaign, Republicans see this as a massive opportunity to take one of Biden's biggest campaign assets, the appearance of his integrity, and turn it against him by painting Biden with a whiff of corruption, including unfounded allegations that he took bribes as vice president to interfere with an ongoing investigation in Ukraine.
Republicans are hoping to neutralize the charges being leveled against former President Trump in state and federal courtrooms and paint the FBI and federal law enforcement as deeply politicized. Republicans don't have to prove a thing for this tactic to be successful. With the amount of confusing information about what President Biden did and didn't do that will come out in congressional hearings and a likely impeachment inquiry later this year, it will be enough for even normal independent voters to start asking questions about the politicization of federal law enforcement, what Biden did and didn't do, and ultimately discredit the Department of Justice with a large segment of the most partisan Republican voters. These issues are not top of mind for voters this year. The economy is. But they do show how brutal and ugly the 2024 campaign season is going to be.
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Independent Kyrsten Sinema won't change the US Senate
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
What does Kyrsten Sinema caucusing as an independent mean for the United States Senate next year?
And the short answer is, according to her, not much.
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema today told Democratic Party leaders that she would be no longer identifying as a Democrat, instead choosing to identify as one of the Senate's three independents. Functionally, this probably doesn't mean much because Sinema says this won't affect the functioning of the Senate. Meaning that committee ratios are still expected to favor Democrats next year, giving them more power to easily report nominations and conduct oversight, but also that she would support Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer as the majority leader next year.
Probably where this has a bigger impact is in Sinema's own reelection campaign in 2024. She now can avoid a party primary, which was expected to be from a very well-funded Democrat, as Democrats aren't super happy with Sinema for having frustrated parts of Joe Biden's legislative agenda over the last two years. She can now run as an independent in the swing state of Arizona, which is going to be a presidential battleground state with lots of money and attention paid there in '24. And her expectation, assuming she runs, will be to split the Democratic and the Republican votes in the state and win reelection.