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Columbia & Yale protests: What campus protesters want
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why hasn't the United Nations insisted on military observers in Gaza?
Well, the United Nations doesn't really insist on things. And when they do, it's usually symbolic. Like they insist that humanitarian aid needs to get into Gaza and it doesn't happen. Or they insist that, there needs to be protections for the Palestinian civilians or that the Hamas needs to let go, release all of the illegally held hostages, and it doesn't go anywhere. So you can insist all you want. Also, keep in mind the Security Council would be vetoing that sort of thing because the US has a veto and they continue to use it on most Israel-Palestine related resolutions.
What specific demands are being voiced by campus protesters at institutions such as Columbia and Yale?
Well, I mean, the demands that got these protests started, are all about divestment of the endowments of these universities away from any corporations that do business in make money with Israel. Because of the view that the Israeli war in Gaza is wrong, the student protesters called it a genocide and that they want to end that. We've seen that kind of demand in Europe across the board. Not as much in the United States, at least not to this degree. Having said that, now that you also have students that have been suspended and arrested, surely the campus protesters are also saying those things need to be unwound. We're also increasingly seeing demands for university administrators, including presidents, to resign. So, I mean, the longer this goes, the harder it is to actually, accede to these student demands. And of course, the more polarized the environment on the ground in these universities become.
How will US aid package approval shake the dynamic of the Russia-Ukraine war?
Well, it makes it more likely that the Ukrainians can defend their front lines, at least for now. They had been losing some territory. Not a lot, but including one city. And the Russians are planning, with an additional mobilization, a new major offensive, probably end of spring, early summer. Ukrainians have a much better capability to hit back and stop the Russians from making gains there. They had been down to about 20% of the ammunition and artillery being fired against Russia, that the Russians were firing against Ukraine. This brings that back to parity through that offensive. What does this mean for 2025? Still, massive uncertainty and eventually a need to engage in negotiations with a much bigger Russia fighting an illegal war, an invasion with all these war crimes. Is that fair? No. But is that reality? Yes, absolutely. And any NATO leader you talk to privately recognizes that's where this is eventually going.
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A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024
2024 is shaping up to be a turbulent year. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate that puts the country on the road to partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza risks expanding to a region-wide war. And in the United States, the presidential election is pitting a divided country against itself with unprecedented risks for its democracy. Throw in AI growing faster than governments can keep up, China's rumbly grumbly economy, and El Nino weather, and you're starting to get the picture.
All those trends and more made it onto Eurasia Group's annual Top Risk project for 2024. As a political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group strives to keep clients informed of the global affairs that will impact their interests and bottom lines. The Top Risks project takes the view from 30,000 feet every year, summarizing the biggest and most dangerous unknowns that will affect everyone, political junkie or not.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 8.
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Is an Israel-Palestine two-state solution possible?
Is a two-state solution still possible for Israel and Palestine? Ehud Barak weighs in.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to discuss the ongoing war with Hamas, the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and whether the idea of a two-state solution with Palestine is still realistic. Barak participated in the 2000 Camp David summit with Yasser Arafat and has arguably come closer than any Israeli leader in modern to securing peace, though he ultimately failed.
“I’ve never lost sight of the idea that the only viable, long-term solution for this conflict in the Middle East remains, unfortunately, the two-state solution,” Barak tells Bremmer.
Today, Barak is critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies of tacitly viewing Hamas in Gaza as an asset and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank as a liability, instead of the other way around. He also admits that they should have gotten more humanitarian aid into Gaza sooner, but argues that the goal of destroying Hamas is critical for Israel’s future. Ultimately, he says the 240 estimated hostages still being held captive should be prioritized above all else, and that failing rescue them would amount to “abandonment” by the Israeli government.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Will Israel's war with Hamas spread north to Lebanon?
In Beirut, a little over 50 miles from the Israeli border, there are few signs of the violent conflict capturing the world's attention. At least for now. Further south, there have been almost daily exchanges of rocket fire between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that dominates southern Lebanon and is a regional power in its own right.
Fear is growing, even in the north, that the war between Israel and Hamas could spill over into a broader regional conflict, GZERO's Fin DePoncier reports from Beirut. But Lebanon is reeling from its own internal struggles–It suffered a devastating economic collapse in 2019 that was exacerbated by the 2020 pandemic and a deadly explosion at the Port of Beirut that caused billions in damage. It's also politically paralyzed; its divided parliament hasn't been able to elect a president since Michel Aoun left office in 2022.
DePoncier is in Beirut to hear from its diverse population about what they think about their country's precarious position and what it would mean if Lebanon gets dragged into Israel's war with Hamas. Some people see themselves as entirely removed from the conflict, others would pick up arms to fight, but everyone is bracing for the worst. For now, all eyes are on Hezbollah and the southern border.
Watch more about the situation in the Middle East on the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Israel at war
Israel is once again at war, with fighting raging to a level not seen in half a century. As of this taping, Israel’s death toll from October 7th’s Hamas terrorist attack has risen to 1,300, with an estimated 150 people believed to be held hostage in Gaza. And so far, according to health officials there, at least 1,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and thousands more injured. Among the Israeli—as well as international—dead from Saturday’s attack are women, children, and the elderly—many butchered in their homes by rampaging Hamas fighters. And Israeli airstrikes have targeted normally safe structures like schools, hospitals, and mosques, killing women, children, and the elderly as well.
On the show this week, Avi Mayer, editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, joins from Israel to talk about how his life, and those of his fellow Israelis, have been forever changed in the past few days. He also provides a pained but unflinching take on how Israel should respond and what that response might mean for the Palestinians caught in the crosshairs.
Then, Middle East scholar Shibley Telhami joins from the Washington DC area to talk about the broader geopolitical context of this latest conflict. Why did Hamas choose this moment to launch its attack, and how did a burgeoning diplomatic deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia play into that decision? Also, what will happen to the 2.3 million Gazans with nowhere to go?
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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