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Indonesian Defense Minister and presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto salutes supporters after delivering a speech at the Jakarta Convention Center during a campaign rally in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Feb. 2, 2024.
Prabowo Subianto set to win Indonesian election
Indonesians voted in the world’s biggest single-day election yesterday, where 259,000 candidates vied for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000 islands.
It may take up to a month for all the votes to be counted in the world’s fourth most populous country. But early results show the skull cracker-general-turned-teddy-bear Prabowo Subianto leading the presidential candidates with 58% of the vote.
Prabowo is the former son-in-law of Suharto, a dictator toppled in 1998, and has a troubling human rights record from his time as special forces commander. Ahead of the race, he recast himself as a loveable grandfather figure, aided by an unofficial endorsement of the popular president Joko Widodo, aka Jokowi, and the president’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming, who is running as Prabowo’s vice president.
Prabowo's campaign focused on continuing Jokowi's legacy and was fueled by a strong youth vote. In Indonesia, the majority of the electorate is under 40 years old, good news for Prabowo, who is more popular among younger voters than those who have lived through his controversial political career.
He is 25 points ahead of the next two candidates and will be tasked with sustaining Jokowi’s strong economy and combating high youth unemployment when he wins.
Indonesia's Defence Minister and presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is gesturing to his supporters during an election campaign rally at the Gelora Delta Stadium in Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, on Feb. 9, 2024.
Will Indonesia choose a military officer-turned-cuddly grandpa for president?
Voters in the world’s third-largest democracy will go to the polls on Wednesday to choose their next president. The popular incumbent Joko Widodo, aka Jokowi, is barred from running for reelection by term limits and has thrown his support behind three-time presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, a former military officer and the current defense minister. Thanks to this support, in addition to generous campaign promises and a slick image makeover, Prabowo, 72, appears well-positioned to join the club of septuagenarian world leaders. We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford how this came about.
What are the main issues in the election?
Cost-of-living concerns and inequality are key themes, which Prabowo in particular is seeking to tap into with generous — but costly — spending promises such as free lunches for students. In previous contests, divisive identity politics have shaped voter preferences, but there has been less of that in this election.
Both Prabowo and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo offer continuity from Jokowi’s administration albeit with some differences — Prabowo would be more nationalist and populist, Ganjar likely more business-friendly. Former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan is running as the “change” or “anti-Jokowi” candidate.
That said, personalities, rather than issues or policies, tend to drive elections in Indonesia.
Is personality the reason for Prabowo’s popularity? Isn’t he a controversial former military officer?
Yes, he is. Prabowo has been accused of committing human rights abuses during his time as a special forces commander under the Suharto “New Order” dictatorship that lasted from 1967 to 1998; he was dismissed from the military but was never charged with any crimes. Prabowo was close to the former dictator and even (for a time) married to his daughter.
In the past, Prabowo has referred in broad terms to “reducing the cost of democracy” — seen by some as a euphemism for reversing the move to direct presidential elections in Indonesia or other steps in a more authoritarian direction. Prabowo’s most ardent critics fear he will return to the Suharto era with a “New Order 2.0,” but this seems unlikely and would trigger strong public pushback. The defense minister has long had a “strongman” persona that appeals to a segment of the population.
But he has taken steps to broaden his appeal, right?
Yes, he has deployed social media effectively to rebrand himself and broaden his appeal. The cat-loving, cuddly grandpa cartoons and avatar appearing on billboards and social media output are intended to moderate his previously stern and out-of-touch image. Meanwhile, social media clips of him dancing seek to dispel any concerns about his age and rumors surrounding his health.
And how significant is Jokowi’s support?
The popular president’s clear but unofficial support is probably the key factor in Prabowo’s surge in the polls. Jokowi defeated Prabowo in the presidential races of 2014 and 2019 and then made the former military officer defense minister in his second administration. Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Prabowo’s running mate in the current election.
Prabowo is now polling very close to the 50% support threshold needed to win the presidency in the first round of the election, but turnout will be a key watchpoint. He is popular with younger voters, who tend to turn out in smaller proportions. Anies and Ganjar trail far behind, locked in an intense battle for runner-up and a place in the potential second round. If there is a runoff, Prabowo will still be the clear favorite, regardless of whether his opponent is Ganjar or Anies.
Why is Jokowi so popular and what is his legacy?
Jokowi is unusually popular for a president who has been in power for nearly ten years. Much of this is down to his “man of the people” personality, despite concerns among his more pluralistic backers about his weakening support for democracy and good governance in recent years. He somehow retains an “outsider” appeal despite being in power for so long and in recent years joining the establishment tradition of dynasty building (as shown by the presence of his son on Prabowo’s electoral ticket).
Jokowi has failed to achieve his promised 7% economic growth rate, but Indonesia has outpaced most other emerging market countries. Jokowi has also led significant progress on infrastructure development — most notably the launch of the Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Train (though not without controversy), Jakarta subway, and new tolls roads, especially on Java island — and improving the business environment (though many challenges remain). Poverty and unemployment are decreasing as well, though youth jobless rates are concerning, and inequality remains high.
What challenges will the next president face?
The next president will inherit a relatively strong economy; the priority will be sustaining the positive momentum and further boosting growth while also addressing youth unemployment and inequality. Delivering on populist campaign promises could be a challenge, especially for Prabowo, who has offered more giveaways. Any weakening of democratic institutions — should it occur — would likely trigger social protests. Backward steps on reform or governance could weaken the country’s appeal for foreign investors and its growth trajectory. Meanwhile, balancing relations with the US and China will take careful handling, though the elections are unlikely to result in a shift away from Indonesia’s longstanding “non-aligned” foreign policy.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Indonesia's defence minister and presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto, along with his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Surakarta's Mayor, greet their supporters as they arrive at the election commission headquarters for registering themselves for next year's presidential election, in Jakarta, Indonesia, October 25, 2023
The race in Indonesia is on
Though Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country (pop. 276 million) and its largest majority Muslim state, it’s long been recognized more for its potential than its accomplishments. But as rivalries grow among the United States, China, and India, this archipelago nation stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific is emerging as a more strategically important partner. It could also become one of the world’s 15 largest economies in the coming years.
Indonesia’s popular current president holds an approval rating of nearly 80% after nine years in power. Yet, Joko Widodo, widely known as Jokowi, is term-limited, and Indonesians will face elections next year to choose his successor. The first round of presidential voting will be held on Feb. 14, with a probable second-round runoff scheduled for June 26.
The deadline for registering presidential candidates for the election closed on Wednesday, and we now know the field. The bottom line: Next year’s election is very likely to produce political continuity.
Defense Minister and former Army General Prabowo Subianto is the favorite, in large part because he’s considered Jokowi’s anointed successor. (Prabowo’s vice presidential running mate is Jokowi’s son.) Prabowo’s strongest challenger, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, is also considered close to Jokowi. The outsider candidate, former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, is probably a long shot.
But Prabowo comes with baggage. As an army commander during the closing days of the three-decade Suharto dictatorship, which ended in 1998, he was accused of human rights abuses and banned for a period from entering the United States. He lost the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections to Jokowi. It appears, however, that the incumbent has calculated that Prabowo will allow him to retain political influence.
The greatest threat a Prabowo presidency appears to pose is to Indonesia’s economic policy. He’s viewed as a populist-nationalist, a leader more likely to govern Indonesia’s economy to sustain his popularity rather than to increase the country’s dynamism.
The campaign is now officially underway.