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Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon
Tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon are heating up amid daily exchanges of rocket fire between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters. Fears are growing that Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza could spread to a broader regional conflict because Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful proxy force. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer unpacks Hezbollah's role within Lebanon, its history of fighting Israel in the south, and how Iran uses the militant group to further its interests in the region.
The potential for an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel would be absolutely devastating for Lebanon, which is already reeling from an economic collapse, a refugee crisis from the Syrian civil war, the deadly 2020 Port of Beirut explosion, and massive currency devaluation. Despite Iran and Israel's signals they don't want to see the Palestine conflict escalate throughout the region, proxy groups like Hezbollah are a way to engage indirectly. One faulty rocket or misinterpreted message could mean the simmering tensions in south Lebanon boil over into a second front.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Damage at the site of the blast in Beirut's port area, Lebanon. Photo taken August 5, 2020
What We’re Watching: Lebanon’s lackluster port probe resumes, Kanye’s troubles Down Under, Rwanda-DRC tensions
Will Lebanese port blast victims ever get justice?
The long-stalled investigation into the July 2020 Beirut port blast that killed at least 218 people got very messy this week. After a 13-month hiatus, the investigation resumed with Judge Tarek Bitar charging three high-ranking officials – including former PM Hassan Diab – with homicide with probable intent. (The charges related to the unsafe storage at a port warehouse of hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate that ultimately exploded, decimating large parts of the city.) But then, the chief prosecutor (yes, the prosecutor!) announced on Wednesday that he was charging the judge for reopening the case. It’s unclear what the exact charges against him are, but Bitar, the second judge to oversee this investigation, has been subject to intimidation for pursuing the case. Meanwhile, the prosecutor also ordered 17 suspects in pre-trial custody to be released. Indeed, this is the latest sign that a culture of impunity plagues Lebanon. Meanwhile, as the elite continue to line their pockets, Lebanon’s economic situation remains catastrophic. Just this week, the US said it was rerouting aid funds to help cash-strapped Lebanon pay security personnel’s wages over fears that the security situation could spiral.
Will Ye get to “Meet the Parents”?
Kanye “Ye” West isn’t getting much love Down Under these days with a host of politicians and academics calling for the rapper to be denied entry into Australia after his recent antisemitic tirades. (Unless you live in a cave, you’ll remember that several leading brands ditched their partnerships with Ye after he said that he “like[s] Hitler” and repeated classic antisemitic tropes about rich Jews owning the media.) Ye, formerly married to Kimmy K, is hoping to visit Melbourne to meet the parents of his new wife, Bianca Censori, an Aussie designer at Yeezy, his LA-based fashion house. Australian politicians across the political aisle have called on Ye to be banned from the country, and at least one senior minister confirmed that denying the famous American a visa wasn’t out of the question. To ban or not to ban? That’s the question. Let us know what you think the Aussies should do.
DRC-Rwanda on the brink?
Tensions are once again rising between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. On Wednesday, Rwanda's military opened fire on a Congolese fighter jet that the Rwandans claim had violated their airspace. The DRC, of course, denied it and called the shooting "an act of war." The jet landed safely at Goma International Airport in the DRC, but the Rwandans say this was the third time this has happened in recent months. What's more, this latest incident comes just a week before Pope Francis is scheduled to make the first papal visit to the Congolese capital of Kinshasa since 1985. The main goal of his trip is to shine a spotlight on the bloodshed of the conflict in eastern DRC, one of the world's most resource-rich yet conflict-ridden regions. (It's also quite complicated, so if you're interested, read our explainer here.) Why should you care? This is the closest the DRC and Rwanda have come to all-out war in years — the last time Rwandan troops invaded, they sparked the Second Congo War, a regional mega-conflict involving nine countries that killed and displaced millions.Supporters of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah hold flags during an election rally in Tyre, Lebanon.
Can this election save Lebanon?
Corruption and mismanagement have become the hallmarks of Lebanese governance.
In 2019, the country’s ill-managed economy imploded thanks to a self-serving political elite, and in 2020, an explosion resulting from government negligence killed 230 people at a Beirut port. Subsequent attempts to stonewall the criminal investigation of the blast again exposed the greed and malice of those in charge.
In short, things need to change.
Voters will cast their ballots on May 15 in general elections for the first time since all hell broke loose three years ago. Is there any hope for a political turnaround, or will the country continue rolling over a cliff?
Decades of deterioration. Years of government mismanagement and corruption coupled with ongoing sectarian violence since the country’s civil war ended in 1990 have fueled low expectations and apathy amongst Lebanon’s electorate. Indeed, decades of pocket-lining by politicians, combined with successive governments racking up mountains of debt, have crashed the economy and sent standards of living into a free fall.
Since 2019, Lebanon’s currency has lost 90% of its value, and inflation now stands at an unfathomable 215%. Lebanese who have seen their savings dry up and their opportunities dwindle are increasingly disillusioned, and they lack trust in the government's ability to improve their plight. As a result, only 54% of eligible voters say they plan to vote, according to Oxfam.
Ongoing sectarian strife is part of the equation. Earlier this year, former PM Saad Hariri – son of slain Sunni PM Rafik Hariri – announced his resignation from politics, leaving a political vacuum. Many Sunni Lebanese – roughly one third of the population – don’t intend to vote.
Analysts say this could be good news for Hezbollah, the Shiite political party and militant group backed by Iran and deemed a terrorist organization by the US and EU. Led by Hassan Nasrallah, a hardliner, Hezbollah has been dubbed a state within a state, because it has vast military capabilities, provides some social provisions, and takes independent actions at home and abroad – like firing rockets into Israel – that invariably impact the Lebanese state.
Hezbollah’s coalition already holds around 55% of parliamentary seats and is hoping to pick up some Sunni votes to further consolidate power. The Saudis are clearly worried about it too: A prominent Saudi columnist reportedly called Hariri a “traitor” for backing out of the election and allowing Hezbollah to fill the void.
What’s at stake?
Much-needed dough. With 75% of the country living below the poverty line, Beirut has been engaged in ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for access to loans and aid.
Last month, the two sides reached a preliminary agreement for a $3 billion loan contingent on Lebanon implementing a series of reforms, including getting rid of bank secrecy laws that allow the central bank to withhold information from donors, and restructuring the banking sector.
Still, if the past is prologue, the political elite will likely continue dragging their feet on reforms that might be detrimental to their personal interests and wealth. Hezbollah has displayed some willingness to negotiate with the IMF, though it says it won’t agree to any austerity measures that would hurt its base, the majority of whom are poor.
While this loan is just a drop in the ocean compared to Lebanon’s crushing $70 billion debt, it would still be an important stepping stone, analysts say, toward boosting investor confidence.
Who's watching?
Surely, the Gulf states, which are locked in a semi-rapprochement with Beirut after a rocky 18 months. The Saudis and Emirates once flooded Lebanon with cash but withdrew as Hezbollah’s – and Iran’s – grip on power tightened. Things got worse last year after a Lebanese minister criticized Riyadh’s onslaught in Yemen, prompting the Saudis to block all Lebanese imports.
The Saudis, for their part, have shown a willingness to patch things up. But it’s hard to imagine that the two states will get much cozier if Hezbollah’s power continues to grow.
The status quo presents big problems for Washington. Many members of Lebanon’s political class, who Washington partners with to try and cut off terrorist financing, are also obstructing the reform efforts needed for unlocking international aid.
Inside Lebanon, the marriage of convenience continues: Lebanon’s political elite siphon money, and Hezbollah seem to get carte blanche to fire rockets at Israel and wage Tehran’s regional war. The people of Lebanon, meanwhile, continue to suffer.
What We're Watching: China and Canada's hostage diplomacy, Biden's big week, Lebanon's blast investigation on hold
China and Canada's hostage diplomacy: In 2018, Canada arrested Huawei top executive Meng Wanzhou because US authorities wanted to prosecute her for violating Iran sanctions. China responded by arresting two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, in what looked like a tit-for-tat. Over the weekend, Meng and the "Two Michaels" were all freed to return to their home countries as part of a deal evidently brokered by Washington. The exchange removes a major sore spot in US-China and Canada-China relations, though we're wondering if establishing the precedent of "hostage diplomacy" with China, especially in such a prominent case, is a good one for anyone involved.
Biden's killer week in Congress: Two huge congressional tests of President Joe Biden's agenda loom this week. First, the US Senate looks set to vote on a House-passed bill that would raise the debt ceiling to continue funding the federal government. But Senate Republicans who oppose a higher debt limit have pledged to block the bill by filibuster, a procedural tactic that Democrats can't stop on their own. If the GOP follows through on this threat, the US federal government could shut down as soon as Friday and face a potentially cataclysmic debt default by mid-October. On Thursday, the House votes on a $1 trillion infrastructure package that's now tearing the Democratic Party apart. Although the bill was hammered out by Dems and Republicans, and — crucially — has the support of Democrat moderates in the Senate, progressive Democrats say they won't support it unless they get to vote on a much larger $3.5 trillion expansion of the social safety net. Republicans andthe Democratic moderates oppose that bill. The political stakes, for Biden and both parties, are enormous.
Lebanon's port inquiry stalled: Lebanese politicians have put the state's investigation into the Beirut port blast that killed more than 200 people last year on hold by filing a motion to have the overseeing judge removed from the case. One lawmaker accused Judge Tarek Bitar of "double standards" while conducting the investigation, but critics say Lebanon's political elite, including former PM Hassan Diab, simply wants to remove a judge who is serious about calling them to account for corruption and negligence. This latest ploy comes after parliamentarians dismissed the previous judge with accusations that he couldn't be impartial because the blast damaged his house. Many victims' families say that ousting judges is only one way that corrupt Lebanese officials have dodged responsibility and obstructed investigations into the explosions. Meanwhile, Lebanon's social and economic crises continue to deepen.