The world's biggest democracy heads to the polls. It's also expanding the world's largest biometric ID system to track 1.3 billion people. A man who recently ran the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, explains why. And on Puppet Regime, Donald Trump is in Moscow. #RaghuramRajan
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Microsoft announced earlier this year the launch of a new United Nations representation office to deepen their support for the UN's mission and work. Many of the big challenges facing society can only be addressed effectively through multi-stakeholder action. Whether it's public health, environmental sustainability, cybersecurity, terrorist content online or the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, Microsoft has found that progress requires two elements - international cooperation among governments and inclusive initiatives that bring in civil society and private sector organizations to collaborate on solutions. Microsoft provided an update on their mission, activities for the 75th UN General Assembly, and the team. To read the announcement from Microsoft's Vice President of UN Affairs, John Frank, visit Microsoft On The Issues.
Over the past eight days, the US-China relationship got notably hotter. None of the new developments detailed below is big enough by itself to kill hopes for better relations next year, but collectively they point in a dangerous direction.
US jabs over Hong Kong: On September 14, the US State Department issued a travel warning for the city because of what it calls China's "arbitrary enforcement of local laws" by police. The US is closely monitoring the case of 10 people detained by China while attempting to flee to Taiwan by boat. China's response to US criticism of its new security law in Hong Kong remains muted. That could change if relations deteriorate further.
<p><strong>Action on forced labor in Xinjiang:</strong> Also on September 14, US Customs and Border Protection issued import bans on computer parts, clothing, cotton, and hair products made at five facilities in China's Xinjiang region following accusations that they're made by <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/14/politics/us-xinjiang-cotton-imports-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">slave labor</a>. Xinjiang is home to most of China's Muslim Uighur ethnic minority, and Beijing has faced accusations from multiple countries that much of this population has been forced into <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/02/20/more-evidence-chinas-horrific-abuses-xinjiang" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">internment camps</a>. The economic impact of this action is limited, but China has reason to fear that other governments might follow the US' lead. </p><p><strong>US strikes China's Belt and Road project: </strong>On September 15, the US Treasury Department unveiled <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1121" target="_blank">sanctions</a> against Union Development Group, a state-owned Chinese company, for the seizure and demolition of land in Cambodia as part of a construction project associated with China's <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Belt and Road Initiative</a>. Here too the economic impact will be limited, but this is the first time the US has issued this type of sanction for actions directly related to China's signature international investment and development project. </p><p><strong>US ban on China's TikTok and WeChat: </strong>On September 18, the Trump administration moved to block <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/trump-admin-challenges-order-that-blocked-wechat-app-store-ban.html" target="_blank">WeChat and TikTok</a> from operating in the US on national security grounds, setting up a long legal battle. For now, a tentative deal involving US firms Oracle and Walmart will allow US downloads of TikTok to continue, but <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/21/trump-wavers-on-tiktok-deal-419424" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">confusion within the administration</a> over its terms could still kill it. </p><p><strong>New tensions over Taiwan: </strong>On September 19, US <span style="background-color: initial;">Undersecretary of State Keith Krach visited Taiwan, which Beijing insists is a renegade Chinese province, to attend a memorial for former president Lee Teng-hui, and to discuss the opening of a new US-Taiwan Economic and Commercial Dialogue. Krach is the <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-modi-plays-to-his-base-us-visit-to-taiwan-irks-china-colombia-arrests-ex-leader" target="_self">second notable US visitor</a></span> to the island in two months. In both cases, Beijing responded with a show of force, this week by launching military exercises and sending <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-jets-buzz-taiwan-during-senior-us-official-visit-2020-9" target="_blank">16 fighter jets and two bombers</a> careening through Taiwan's airspace. The US is reportedly also considering the sale of <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/517016-trump-administration-set-to-approve-large-arms-sale-with-taiwan" target="_blank">long-range missiles to Taiwan</a> in the coming weeks. China has responded with threats of sanctions against US companies.</p><p><strong>China flashes a trade weapon: </strong>Beijing faces domestic pressure to push back harder on the tougher Trump administration line. On September 19, China's Commerce Ministry took a big step in that direction. By publishing a "Provisions on the Unreliable Entities List," the Chinese government issued a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-19/china-reveals-punishment-for-firms-on-unreliable-entity-list" target="_blank">stern warning</a> that further steps to block supplies of critical technologies to Chinese companies will draw retaliation against at least one high-profile US firm. More multinationals may find themselves caught in the crossfire. </p><p><strong>A turning point? </strong>All this comes in the lead up to a US election that will prove pivotal for the world's most important bilateral relationship. How will the outcome change things? China would love to know. </p><p>The current Cold War logic suggests that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins, China may test him to look for signals of a change in US strategy. If President Trump is re-elected, these latest escalations might prove a sign of bigger fights to come. </p>
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Trump is willing to give up Wisconsin for Belarus' democracy? When multilateralism hits the Zoom calls, we can't really tell what's real and what's not. #PUPPETREGIME
Kevin Sneader, global managing partner for McKinsey & Company, provides perspective on how the pandemic has influenced climate action:
Has the pandemic helped or harmed efforts to tackle climate change?
<p>My answer, the coronavirus holds profound lessons that can help us address climate if we make greater economic and environmental resiliency core to the recovery. It's easy to forget that before the pandemic swept the world, climate was rising on the agenda of many public and private sector leaders. Not only does climate action remains critical now and over the next decade, but investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and the transition to a lower-carbon future can drive near term job creation while increasing economic and environmental resiliency. The current pandemic provides a foretaste of what could happen in the event of a full-fledged climate crisis, with simultaneous shocks to supply and demand and disruption of supply chains. The global economy has 10 to 25 years of carbon capacity left. Moving towards a lower carbon economy presents a daunting challenge. If we choose to ignore the issue for a year or two the math becomes even more daunting. We do need to act now. </p>
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In a new interview with GZERO World host Ian Bremmer, conducted on the eve of the 2020 General Assembly, UN Secretary-General António Guterres confronts the challenges of leading a multilateral organization in an increasingly nationalistic world. "I am not naïve," he tells Bremmer. "I know this is going to be a very tough ideological battle."
Watch the episode: UN Secretary-General António Guterres: Why we still need the United Nations
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A more inclusive UN: Secretary-General Guterres on the future of multilateralism
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September 21, 2020