Fresh off their conquest of the town of Avdiivka in Eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are continuing to make advances against Kyiv’s increasingly taxed troops.
Since the end of February, Russian troops have reportedly pushed an additional two miles beyond Avdiivka. That may not sound like much, but as Al Jazeera gamely pointed out, two miles in a week is a proper hare’s pace for a Russian military that spent four months (and as many as 16,000 casualties) just to advance 5 miles to Avdiivka itself.
The fresh push suggests Vladimir Putin is seizing the moment strategically and politically. With US aid to Kyiv deadlocked in Congress, Ukraine is struggling to find fresh recruits and apportion dwindling munitions. Meanwhile, with his “election” approaching in two weeks, Putin will happily peacock a few extra bits of Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.
All of which throws the spotlight back on the US. Without further aid, Kyiv’s military position is expected to deteriorate rapidly in the coming months. In that event, the prospect of some kind of partition of Ukraine – a top risk flagged by our friends at Eurasia Group this year – would start to look inevitable.