Tehran's best and worst-case scenarios

According to Thomas Wright, the range of outcomes runs from unlikely political change to durable instability. The best-case scenario—though Wright says is quite unlikely—is the emergence of a more legitimate government in Tehran. Public dissatisfaction with the current leadership runs deep, and in theory, that pressure could produce a regime that is more responsive to its people, even if it falls short of full democracy. At the other extreme lies the worst-case scenario: fragmentation. If the state weakens too dramatically, Iran could splinter internally, creating a dangerous vacuum in an already volatile region. The most likely outcome may fall somewhere in between. The war could end with the regime still in power but significantly weakened—facing severe economic strain and struggling to provide basic services like electricity and energy. In that scenario, the Islamic Republic survives, but its long-term stability remains an open question.