US–China relations are once again on edge. After Washington expanded export controls on Chinese tech firms, Beijing struck back with new limits on critical minerals. President Trump responded by threatening 100% tariffs, then quickly walked them back.

Ian Bremmer says neither side wants a full trade war: “Trump doesn’t want to risk inflation or crash the markets, and Xi knows both countries have real leverage over each other.”

As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, from TikTok control to Taiwan tensions, Ian explains why “this relationship is tense, but not heading for a blow-up.”

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A banner reading "Buy Canadian", in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on goods from Canada, is held aloft by a pair of hockey sticks in front of a house in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada March 5, 2025.
REUTERS/Ed White

Washington and Ottawa are down to the wire with last-minute talks to reach an agreement by 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, when President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on over $20 billion of Canadian goods.

A staff member holds a dummy as staff and customers take shelter at a storage room, during an air raid exercise at a PX Mart supermarket as part of the civil defence drills in Taipei, Taiwan. July 10, 2025.
REUTERS/Annabelle Chih

As the line between the battlefield and everyday life blurs, countries are increasingly preparing civilians for the next war.