February 02, 2026
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the growing tensions between the US and Iran, calling it "the next area of potential large-scale conflict where President Trump is interested in changing the facts on the ground."
Trump has set a high-stakes choice: a sweeping deal or possible military strikes. Ian notes, “Trump was very close to ordering military strikes just a few weeks ago,” but delayed due to insufficient defenses for American forces and allies. Now, the US is moving to strengthen its presence in the region.
The administration’s demands are extensive: removing Iran’s enriched uranium, limiting its ballistic missile program, and curbing support for regional proxies.
Ian warns that any military action could spark regional instability, provoke Russia and China, and drive oil prices higher.
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