Why the IMF is cutting global growth forecast

At the 2026 World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, Eurasia Group’s Rob Kahn joined GZERO’s Tony Maciulis to assess why the IMF has downgraded global growth to 3.1%.

“I think it’s bigger than that,” Kahn says, arguing the global economy is absorbing multiple shocks at once. While last year’s resilience surprised many, he warns that the war in Iran “and all the disruption that comes from it is a major shock,” with consequences stretching from energy markets to agriculture and critical global supply chains.

Looking ahead, Kahn says the outlook hinges on diplomacy: “Without peace, this is a story for 2026 and possibly beyond.” In the US, Kahn sees a split reality taking shape. While corporations post strong results, many households remain under pressure. “It is a slower growth story,” he notes, describing a “K-shaped economy” where economic strength is uneven heading into midterm elections.

This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.