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Russia inches closer to taking the Donbas
Russia inches closer to taking the Donbas
Russia got one step closer to capturing the Donbas region of Ukraine last Sunday when its forces seized the eastern city of Lysychansk after weeks of heavy fighting. Ukraine’s military announced it had been “forced to withdraw” by Russia’s overwhelming firepower and personnel superiority there in order to avoid “fatal consequences.”
"We continue the fight. Unfortunately, steel will and patriotism are not enough for success—material and technical resources are needed," the Ukrainian military said in a Facebook post.
Following Russia’s takeover of the neighboring city of Severodonetsk just a week prior, Lysychansk had become the last remaining Ukrainian holdout in the Luhansk region. Now, Russia has control of Luhansk, which together with the neighboring Donetsk region makes up the Donbas—the industrialized eastern part of Ukraine that has long been the epicenter of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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Kremlin-backed separatist forces have been fighting an insurgency there since 2014. Before he invaded Ukraine on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics. After his troops failed to take over Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government, Putin declared the top aim of the “second phase” of the war to be the capture and annexation or independence of the Donbas.
Slowly but surely, and despite Ukraine’s fierce resistance, he is succeeding.
For the last month and a half, Russian forces have been making small but steady advances in Ukraine’s east and south. After overrunning Luhansk, the Russian offensive is now turning its focus further west toward the Donetsk, with Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut, the region’s three largest cities still in Ukrainian hands, coming under heavy shelling in recent days. Local authorities have called for the 350,000 remaining civilians in the area to evacuate immediately.
The capture of Luhansk hands Putin a significant, if mostly symbolic, win, both on the ground and in the propaganda war. But by no means does it spell an end to the fighting or a decisive Russian victory.
Ukraine still controls nearly half of the Donetsk region, and Russian forces are unlikely to gain a hold of the entire region soon. Ukrainian forces are also advancing in multiple directions, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. The fighting will likely continue through the fall and possibly the winter, dealing heavy casualties to both sides. As long as Western weapons and aid continue to flow, Ukrainians can prevent Moscow from achieving a definitive victory.
The big question is whether Ukraine can get enough advanced weapons from the West at the pace needed to halt the Russian advance, before domestic political pressures erode the level of international support. The Ukrainian government increasingly worries the answer is 'no.'
Kyiv has been desperately asking for more and faster equipment shipments, particularly of heavy artillery and ammunition. While the United States—Ukraine’s top donor in absolute terms—recently provided advanced missile systems and its defense industry is ramping up production to meet demand, stockpiles are getting depleted fast, meaning there isn’t a whole lot more high-capacity artillery readily available for delivery.
Actually getting the materiel to the front lines has been complicated by Russian attacks on rail lines and bridges. And even if getting hardware into place wasn’t a problem, it can take weeks and even months to train Ukrainian soldiers on how to operate certain weapons systems.
Meanwhile, Moscow is stepping up efforts to establish Russia-controlled administrations in the occupied territories and increasing attacks in other parts of the country, including in Kharkiv.
The Ukrainian government is concerned that the level of Western support will only diminish as the conflict drags on, winter makes the energy crunch more acute, and the U.S. midterm elections approach. And rightly so: if they don’t get as much military and financial aid as they possibly can as soon as possible, their ability to fight will suffer, and their odds of success will diminish.
None of this means that Russia can win the war.
As I’vewritten before, no matter what happens on the battlefield, Putin’s decision to invade will turn out to be a catastrophic strategic mistake. Zelensky is an international hero, and Ukraine is now decidedly and permanently anti-Russian. The transatlantic alliance has a newfound sense of purpose. Europe is increasing its military spending. NATO is expanding both its membership and its activities along Russia’s borders. American and European sanctions are effectively permanent, and they will cause significant long-term damage to the Russian economy. There’s no conceivable scenario in which Russia comes out of this war economically and geopolitically stronger than before February 24.
But when it comes to the narrow fight for the Donbas, Putin increasingly finds himself in an ever more comfortable position.
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How to punish Putin
The situation in Ukraine is evolving at lightning speed. After the Kremlin recognized the independent status of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the EU and US responded on Monday with strongly worded statements and tepid sanctions.
But Washington and Brussels both upped the ante on Tuesday after Russian tanks began rolling into the Donbas region, a sign, some analysts say, that the days of shuttle diplomacy are over. This was reinforced by Sec. of State Tony Blinken saying Tuesday that a Thursday meeting with his Russian counterpart had been canceled. By Wednesday, Kyiv was urging its citizens to leave Russia immediately.
What sanctions are currently in place and what might this mean for Russia’s economy?
Washington and Brussels align. In a press conference on Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced that the US would slap new sanctions on Russian financial entities, including VEB, a Russian development bank, as well as Russia’s military bank, PSB. Some analysts say this means sanctions against other mainstream banks are being reserved in case of a more overt invasion.
Eurasia Group analyst Zach Witlin says that "everything about [Tuesday's] round of sanctions implied that this is just the tip of the iceberg — if Russia launches a new military operation it won’t just be the state development bank and a defense finance bank that are blacklisted." He also pointed out that this is the third round of sanctions targeting Russian sovereign debt, "all of which have been more severe than the last." The latest order means the Kremlin can no longer access US financing or trade its debt on Western markets.
This aligns with a sanctions package imposed by the European Union earlier on Tuesday that blocks Moscow from accessing the EU's financial markets and bans European investors from trading in Russian state bonds. Indeed, in a sign of the cohesion that Biden has long been pushing for, Brussels and Washington both moved to freeze the foreign assets of some members of the Russian elite, effectively kicking them out of the Western banking system.
What’s more, the White House also said it will deploy more troops to Eastern Europe to support America’s Baltic allies. This comes after Russia’s upper house of parliament gave Putin the go-ahead to use military force outside the country – a procedural move that deepened fears of a full-scale Russian invasion.
Recent developments have thrown oil markets into a tizzy. Fears of war have sent oil and natural gas prices soaring. Disruptions to the market, which saw oil trading at nearly $100 a barrel — heights not seen since 2014 — were further compounded by the new Western punitive measures. Some analysts warn that Putin could subvert energy exports to Europe in retaliation. Taken together, these factors create more uncertainty, which tends to push up prices even more. Still, there’s a lot at stake for Russia too, which depends heavily on revenue from Europe.
President Biden acknowledged that this approach could come with costs for Americans who are already experiencing the burn of inflation. An intensification in Ukraine could further upend energy supplies, but he said this was necessary to respond to “the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.” He also vowed to do whatever he could to protect the US economy and American consumers.
Is Russia’s economy sanction-proof? As the New Yorker’s Joshua Yaffa told GZERO recently, Putin has been preparing for this standoff with the West for a long time. Indeed, he’s taken painstaking measures to insulate the Russian economy from potential punitive measures, having built up foreign exchange reserves exceeding $600 billion, which comes out to more than 30% of its current GDP, according to the Times).
While Moscow can use those funds to prop up the ruble for some time, being shut out of European and American financial markets long-term would exact a heavy toll on Russia's economy. Is he willing to risk the potential domestic backlash that could come as a result?
Witlin says that while war and a weak ruble are not going to be popular policies among Russians, "Putin is probably counting on either spinning events into a narrative he can sell or otherwise stamping out any backlash." And some public opinion data supports this. The Levada Center recently found that two-thirds of Russians "blamed either the US or Ukraine for the worsening situation in eastern Ukraine," Witlin says. What's more, "about two-thirds of respondents in Russia said they were not worried about sanctions.
Russian troops into Donbas: Beginning of a new Cold War?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and right from the Bank of England, where we are looking at the beginning of a new Cold War between the United States, NATO, Europe, and Russia. It has indeed been an extraordinary momentous 24 hours. The Russians have decided they are going ahead to recognize the independence of the breakaway Ukrainian territories in the Donbas, sending in troops. Certainly, expected given where the Douma was heading and the statements from Putin over the last week. But nonetheless, this means diplomacy has failed between the United States, its allies and the Russians. It means sanctions are coming on to the Russians and the Russians are likely to respond and retaliate.
A couple things that are incredibly important here. The first is the Chinese response. The Chinese gave Putin the strongest possible support when he was in Beijing for the Olympics, in a joint statement made by Xi Jinping and President Putin. But since then, the Chinese have also made clear that they support a diplomatic resolution of Ukraine. They support Minsk negotiations going forward, and they supported the Ukrainian territorial integrity. Despite all of that, the Russians have basically just put a handout to the Chinese. They've said we are uninterested in supporting what you are promoting. And given that China is the most important by far a friend of Russia on the global stage among major powers, that's going to be immensely important to see how the Chinese respond here. If they decide they're really opposed to what the Russians are doing and willing to use their leverage with the Russians, keep in mind, you've got sanctions from the US and Europe. The Chinese are incredibly important, that could help bring a climb down. Short of that, we are in severely escalatory territory. We're going to see more sanctions, cyberattacks, which had been cut down by the Russians on critical infrastructure on the US, on other European countries, likely to return in very short order. And it's very hard to imagine with the end of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that suddenly the Russians are going to take those kinds of costs on board and only take the occupied territories of the Donbas. You would expect they're going to go farther than that. And that would include taking territory that not only is Ukrainian, but that presently is occupied by Ukrainians. That means you start to see Ukrainians getting killed. It also means much more severe sanctions are coming on board. So, in escalatory mode as that occurs.
Getting incredibly dangerous, a changing global order in front of our eyes. NATO has never been as strong since the collapse of the Soviet Union, never been as important, but it's absolutely critical for all the countries of the Alliance they maintain that level of unity. And the ability to do that is going to be more challenging. The Russians aren't going to make it easy, making it easy for the Americans and NATO means full-on invasion. That would lead to much stronger alignment of everyone that, oh my God, the danger to the global order. But taking this incremental step makes it easier that countries like France or Italy, others, would peel off and say, no, we need to still work with the Russians. Find a way through, maybe not have as many tough sanctions as the Americans, the Brits, even the Germans are pushing for harder. So far that hasn't happened, so far Biden's done a solid job. So has Olaf Scholz, so even Emmanuel Macron, in maintaining a very strong and united front, that's the other thing to watch very carefully over the coming weeks.
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A militant of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic patrols the damaged building of a local school in the Luhansk region, Ukraine.
Setting Ukraine's rebels free?
The pace of Russia-Ukraine news is accelerating. Russian President Vladimir Putin says his troops are pulling back from the border, while Washington, NATO, and Kyiv say they’re not. Russia has expelled the deputy American ambassador from Moscow.
The week’s most ominous developments, however, center on the Donbas, the breakaway region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed rebels and Ukrainian soldiers have been exchanging fire throughout the eight-year conflict. On Thursday, reports emerged that two schools, including a kindergarten, had been hit by shelling. Ukraine and Russia traded accusations over which side fired first, raising concerns that finger-pointing could lead to an escalation. Russia is “actively trying to provoke the Ukrainians into steps that would justify a Russian military intervention,” GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer said on Thursday in Germany ahead of the Munich Security Conference.
But there’s another Donbas development that reminds us of what Putin really wants – and signals what he might do next.
This week, Russia’s parliament voted to ask Putin to consider formal recognition of the independence of the two Donbas provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukrainian separatists there declared their independence in 2014, but no country, including Russia, has formally recognized them.
So far, Putin has resisted. He continues to insist that Ukraine honor the so-called Minsk Agreement, a peace plan that would leave the breakaway Donbas provinces as part of Ukraine – on condition they’re given “special status” and a degree of policy autonomy.
Compliance with the Minsk deal would force Ukraine’s government to rewrite its constitution. The new version would give governors of Donetsk and Luhansk – and, therefore, their sponsors in Moscow – the right to veto national security and trade policies approved by Ukraine’s national government.
In short, by keeping the Donbas provinces inside Ukraine, Putin could effectively block any Ukrainian entry into NATO or trade deals with the EU that ease Ukraine’s dependence on Russia. And it could achieve this without starting a war, suffering casualties, spending billions, or facing sanctions.
So, if Putin thinks the Donbas is useful for Russia as part of Ukraine, why did he allow Russia’s parliament to suggest formal recognition for Donbas independence? As Bremmer noted from Munich, “Suddenly, this week, it goes to the Kremlin for approval for that recognition. That’s a very significant move.”
Formal Russian recognition of the region’s independence would mark a major turning point in Putin’s Ukraine strategy, but it’s possible that Putin has decided he needs a face-saving way to avoid a costly war. He’d be declaring the Minsk deal dead, a sign of grudging acceptance that he can’t force Ukraine to embed Russian power into Ukraine’s constitution.
And maybe Putin has found another way to declare victory. The Russian government filed a report at the United Nations on Thursday alleging that Ukraine is guilty of “genocide of the Russian-speaking population” in the Donbas. Putin himself has made that charge repeatedly.
Accepting Donbas independence and offering public support for its leaders would score Putin points at home as the man who stopped a “genocide” and defended Russians abroad — and he could do that without going to war.
Putin could also be looking for an excuse to move many more Russian troops into the Donbas to intensify the military threat to Kyiv in hopes of winning the promise he wants that Ukraine will never join NATO.
The view from Kyiv
Some analysts argue that Ukraine should let the Donbas go. If those provinces were independent, there would be far fewer ethnic Russians left in the rest of Ukraine, and it would be much harder for Russia to manipulate Ukraine’s domestic politics.
But Zelensky has plenty of rivals at home who will call any concession to Moscow an act of cowardice and treason. Ukrainian troops still control about two-thirds of Donbas territory, though less than half its population. To withdraw them, ceding land that even Russia says is still part of Ukraine, remains politically impossible.
Putin appears to be weighing his options. But the possible Russian recognition of Donbas independence just became a story to watch closely.
Russia-Ukraine crisis: Major escalation this week
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on the major escalation this week over the big issue everyone is worried about: Russia and Ukraine.
Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And I'm on the ground in Munich where the sun is popping through. I wish I could say that that had some symbolism. It does not appear this way. It is the first major security confab to come together post-pandemic or in pandemic. And there's still all sorts of vigorous rules and regulations on how few people can come and everyone wearing masks and social distancing. But the major leaders are all arriving, and they're arriving at a time of extreme geopolitical concern.
Fact is that there's been major escalation this week over the big issue everyone is worried about, Russia and Ukraine. Russia's claiming they're taking troops off of the Ukrainian border, actually adding an additional 7,000. Russian president telling German Chancellor Scholz who's coming here shortly that acts of genocide are being committed against Russian passport holders on the ground in the occupied territory and the Russian Duma flip-flopping on what looked like it was going to be opposition and recognizing the independence of the occupied territory now, suggesting that they should, passing that piece of legislation gets kicked to Putin. He decides what he's going to do.
And then just hours ago, a kindergarten with lots of kids in attendance shelled by Russian forces in between the occupied territory and the Ukrainian territory. And only a couple of injuries and no kids were harmed, but clearly this is the kind of act that if kids had gotten killed, Ukrainian forces would've been hard pressed not to retaliate. And that is exactly what the Russian government is looking for, a provocation that would then justify the Russians to rip up the Minsk Agreement, declare the independence of this breakaway republic, which would then request Russian military support and defense. And of course the Russians would provide it. And at that point you've got major sanctions. That's tripwire.
So we are very close to an extremely dangerous situation, really unprecedented since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. And yet here we are with the trans-Atlantic relationship stronger, more purposeful, more motivated than at any point since that time. This was the same conference that two years ago had a theme of "Westlessness", the idea that the world was moving and the West was faced with a lack of identity on we, obsolescence. Not the case at all right now. NATO has a mission. It's very reinvigorated and it's because everyone is deeply concerned that at this time next week there could be military confrontation directly with Russia.
I'm certainly going to be following it very closely. And you'll be hearing a lot from us here at the Munich Security Conference. Hope everyone's doing well. Let's wish for the best.
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Minsk agreement a path to resolving Ukraine crisis
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe this week from Stockholm.
First, what's happening with the dispute with Russia?
Well, the Europeans, Paris and Berlin, are trying to revive the negotiations over the Donbas issue, the so-called Minsk format. I think that's a distinct sideshow, but of course, it would be good. But otherwise, we are waiting for the answer from Moscow, for the papers that were put on the table by Washington and by NATO, effectively rejecting most of the Russian demands, and they will see what happens thereafter.
Second question, who's going to fill the leadership vacuum in Europe?
Well, that remains to be seen, but for the moment, of course, France is in the presidency of the European Union, and President Macron is also very, very eager to show his European credentials when he's facing the tough re-election campaign in April. Then it will take some time for German Chancellor Scholz to establish himself firmly on the seat.
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