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Pro-democracy march in Warsaw, Poland.
The EU is planning to sue Poland
Tensions over the rule of law between Poland and the EU took a (double) turn for the worse this week.
First, the bloc’s top court issued a new ruling that Polish judicial reforms from 2019 violate EU democracy norms by weakening the independence of Polish judges. The ruling is the final word in a years-long tussle between Warsaw and Brussels, which has seen the EU impose fines as high as 1 million euros per day on Poland for ignoring its demands to rewrite the reforms. Poland could now face even larger penalties.
And that’s not all — on Wednesday, Brussels said it’s suing Warsaw over a new Polish law that aims to stamp out “Russian influence”.
The government of Poland — a country with a long history of being unpleasantly “influenced” by Russia — says the measure is needed to bolster national cohesion following Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. But critics, among them the half million Polish protesters who turned out last weekend, worry that the ruling right-wing Law and Justice party will use it to pressure the opposition ahead of elections this fall. Meanwhile, both the EU and the US have warned the law is a threat to Poland’s democracy more broadly.
All of this is a reminder of the Jekyll and Hyde nature of Poland’s relationship with the EU and US. On the one hand, Brussels and Washington are delighted by Poland’s outsized role in supporting Ukraine, and its commitment to becoming one of NATO’s most fearsome fighting forces. On the other, they are increasingly worried about democratic backsliding in the EU’s most populous former communist country.
Anti Polexit banner is seen during 'We're staying in EU' demonstration at the Main Square in Krakow, Poland on October 10, 2021.
What We're Watching: EU-Poland judicial fight, Turkey joins Haiti prez murder probe, Pfizer’s COVID pill deal
EU vs Poland (yes, again). The EU's top court on Tuesday ruled that Poland's recent judicial reforms, which give the government leeway to appoint sympathetic justices, violate EU rule-of-law norms. Warsaw claims that its own constitutional court has already decided that Polish law supersedes EU law, so the stalemate continues. The EU and Poland have been fighting over this issue for years, but Brussels has recently begun showing its frustration with Poland — and Hungary too — over these issues. While the "illiberal" governments of both countries are popular, the EU also knows that most Hungarians and Poles want to stay in the 27-member union, and Brussels' ability to delay badly-needed EU pandemic relief money is a strong point of leverage. Defying Brussels is already starting to get expensive for Warsaw — in a separate judicial dispute, the EU is fining Poland 1 million euros ($1.1 million) per day until it abides by the bloc's rule-of-law norms.
Haiti's presidential assassination investigation goes global. Turkey has arrested a Haitian businessman of Jordanian origin allegedly connected to the plot to kill Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse last July. The suspect — detained in Istanbul en route to Jordan from the US — has been linked to a Florida-based doctor with Haitian roots who reportedly wanted to return to Haiti and assume the presidency after Moïse's death. More than 40 suspects have been arrested so far, including several Haitian security personnel and Colombian mercenaries. Although we still don't know who ordered the hit, the most plausible theory is that wealthy Haitians living abroad hired professionals to do the job. Meanwhile, Haiti itself remains mired in the political chaos that followed Moïse's assassination. With a weak government, gangsters like the notorious Monsieur Barbecue, Haiti's most powerful mobster, are now running the show in the chronically unstable Caribbean nation.
Pfizer's COVID pill plans. US drug manufacturer Pfizer will allow its experimental COVID treatment pill to be produced and sold in 95 developing nations that are home to more than half of the world's population. The deal is part of a UN-backed, for-profit consortium. Pfizer says that as long as COVID remains a WHO-designated public health emergency, it won't charge royalties for the pill, which clinical trials show reduces the risk of COVID hospitalization or death by 89 percent. While the treatment is still good news, inequality in access to COVID vaccines and treatments persists, with numerous issues outstanding — from pharma patent issues, to global production supply deals, to local drug production capacity. Still, having cheaper access to effective treatment is a big deal for the countries on Pfizer's list, most of which have very low vaccination rates and weak healthcare capacity.What We're Watching: EU sues Poland, pandemic widens global gender gap, Niger foils coup attempt
EU takes Poland to top court: In a significant escalation in the ongoing row between Brussels and Warsaw, the EU has referred Poland to Europe's top court, citing concerns over its undermining of judicial independence. Brussels has long expressed concern about the dilution of democratic norms under President Andrzej Duda and his ruling Law and Justice party, which came to power in 2015. Since then, Duda has given broad powers to the Disciplinary Chamber of the Supreme Court, which has purged and suspended Polish judges who are critical of government actions and cut the salaries of judges who oppose changes to the judicial system. Brussels has long been at loggerheads with member states Hungary and Poland, both of which are led by "illiberal" populists. This came to a head last year when Brussels included a provision in the bloc's pandemic recovery package that made disbursement of funds contingent on respecting EU rule-of-law norms.
COVID reverses gender equality progress: It's well established that the cultural and economic impacts of the pandemic have hit women particularly hard. Now, a new World Economic Forum report says that 2020 was so devastating for gender equality globally that it will likely take another 151 years — 36 more than estimated just 12 months ago — to close the global gender gap. Interestingly, the area where the gap grew the most — 2.6 percent — in 2020 is politics. While many countries made progress on women's political representation, those gains were overshadowed by the poor performance of a smaller group of economic heavyweights including China, India and Japan, which have poor records when it comes to female participation in politics. As women-led movements aiming to reshape politics around the world gather steam, we're watching to see whether such grassroots pressure will succeed in creating long term change.
More unrest in Niger: After gunfire was heard before dawn close to the presidential palace in Niamey, Niger's capital, the government swiftly declared it had foiled a coup attempt by several members of the army. The fresh wave of unrest comes just two days before the inauguration of newly elected President Mohamed Bouzom. Details of the attempted coup are sketchy, but at least some soldiers are not happy about Bouzom's runoff election victory over former president Mahamane Ousmane, who himself was toppled in a coup in the mid 1990s. Ousmane rejected the December results, citing vague allegations of fraud, and his supporters rioted on the streets of Niamey to show their outrage. The coup attempt raises fears of further political unrest in coup-prone Niger, which was looking forward to its first-ever peaceful transition of power after incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou stepped down. This comes as Niger is also suffering a wave of attacks by jihadists, who will surely benefit from more political instability in one of the world's poorest countries. Will Bouzom, a former interior minister known for being tough on terror, be able to get the situation under control?