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What We’re Watching: Libya delays vote, Sudan’s embattled PM, COVID cures, EU-UK fish deal
Libya election postponed. As many had expected, Libya’s election will in fact be postponed. The vote, the first since psycho autocrat Muammar Qaddafi was ousted in a NATO-backed uprising 10 years ago, was supposed to happen on Friday. Now the country’s electoral board says it will be postponed by a month, until January 24. The move isn’t a surprise: for weeks the two rival governments that run Libya — and their outside backers — have been squabbling over electoral rules and candidate eligibility. The question now is whether delaying the vote genuinely gives the parties time to agree on a process that seems legitimate enough to hold, or whether the move risks further unraveling a fragile and fragmented country. The UN has already raised alarm about rival armed groups setting up positions in and around Tripoli.
Sudan PM to step down? Meanwhile, Libya’s southeastern neighbor Sudan isn’t having an easy time of it either. Beleaguered PM Abdalla Hamdok could soon step down amid protests over the transitional military-civilian government. Hamdok represents the civilian wing under a deal negotiated after the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. But that agreement has always been shaky — in October, the military staged a coup and arrested Hamdok, only to release and reinstate him a month later under a fresh arrangement. But supporters of the civilians rejected that new pact, and in recent days they have thronged the streets to call for “no partnership, no negotiation, no compromise” with the generals. Sudan can ill-afford another political crisis — one-third of the population is already in need of humanitarian assistance, and the number of Sudanese in outright life-threatening conditions rose 75 percent to 13 million in 2021. Meanwhile, Sudan is also struggling to accommodate refugees from the ongoing war in neighboring Ethiopia, and to navigate the ongoing diplomatic and security challenges posed by the Ethiopian construction of a massive hydroelectric dam upstream on the Nile.
Covid pill pops, Pentagon miracle jab to follow? The FDA on Wednesday approved the first oral, at-home, antiviral medicine for those infected with COVID-19. Pfizer's Paxlovid pill reduces severe illness by up to 90 percent in high-risk people who take it early in the course of their infection. In the coming days US regulators are likely also to greenlight a similar pill made by Merck, called Molnupiravir, though France seems less keen. The arrival of mass produced oral therapeutics is a major turning point in the pandemic, giving doctors and public health systems a powerful tool to reduce mortality from the disease, while also reducing pressures on hospitals. Also this week we learned that the US Military has developed what sounds too good to be true: a vaccine that works not only against all current variants but against all future ones too? Forgive us for thinking this was an Onion headline at first, but we're eager to learn more about Pentagon Pharma's potentially game-changing jab.
UK and EU reach 🐟 deal. The EU and the UK reached a compromise on Wednesday to end a contentious fight over fish. The two sides will share fish stocks next year by reverting to the quotas included in last year's post-Brexit trade agreement. On the plus side, each side now knows exactly how much fish it (and the other) is permitted to catch in 2022, though on the downside environmentalists still say the number is too high. Still, this deal doesn't solve the nasty bilateral UK-France row over who gets to fish which waters in the English Channel. In recent weeks, the UK has shown more willingness to compromise by granting French fishing vessels more licenses to operate in the disputed waters, but Paris wants a lot more. Fishing rights are a big deal in the two countries — expect them to come up as a campaign issue in next year's French presidential election.The great roe row: UK and France fight over fish... and other stuff
Fish are divisive. Their various odors are distinctive, and though some people enjoy them, others find their slimy exteriors off-putting.
They also can drive a wedge between longtime "friends" like France and the UK. In recent weeks, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President Emmanuel Macron have been at loggerheads over questions of fishing access in the English Channel. But is this latest row really about roe?
Le contexte. The fishing issue was one of the final sticking points in the post-Brexit deal, which came into force earlier this year. Now, EU member states' boats need special licenses to fish in British waters, and vice-versa. The French say that they haven't been granted a stack of licenses they're entitled to under the deal – the Brits say they've granted 98 percent of all EU fishing applications. Whatever the truth, about one-third of the licenses France has asked for have not yet been granted.
Rotting fish. Tensions are high, and tempers are running hot. Last week, the French seized a British trawler that it accused of fishing unlawfully in its waters. Macron has also issued a series of threats, including a warning that Paris would tax British exports and delay processing at its ports, which could leave a lucrative stash of fish to rot. Though Macron has backed off for now, things have gotten pretty acrimonious: a leaked letter that French PM Jean Castex wrote to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week reportedly called on London to be "punished" for Brexit.
Still, fish exports account for a measly 0.1 percent of the UK's GDP, and 0.06 percent of France's economy. Clearly, this fight isn't just, or even mainly, about fish.
What's in it for Boris? Johnson has had a rough time of it lately, and he may be hoping that a fight with the French – whom Britons love to hate – might provide a nice distraction from a string of crises causing frustration and angst at home. Supply-chain disruptions fueled by the pandemic and Brexit have British nerves on edge, while energy shortages are sending prices sharply higher. Morale among Britons is low as a frosty winter looms.
Economic conditions may well get worse. As London grapples with post-Brexit shocks, Germany, Europe's biggest economy, says the UK is likely to fall out of the country's top 10 trading partners for the first time in seven decades. That matters much more than any fight over fish.
Moreover, Johnson is locked in a bitter stalemate with the EU as he tries to renegotiate the conditions of the Northern Ireland Protocol – a post-Brexit arrangement that the PM says is disrupting the flow of goods between London and Belfast. Johnson could be buying time with the French drama so he can trigger a legal loophole that would allow him to renege on the Protocol. (However, he likely wants to wait until his international guests leave the COP26 summit in Glasgow.)
The French are always grumpy in October. This was the analysis from a Tory MP on what's aggravating the French so much. (He was slyly referring to the anniversary of the Battle of Trafalgar, a fight in which the British prevailed over Napoleon's navy in 1805.)
A more likely explanation: French domestic politics plays a sizable role in Macron's calculus. As the euroskeptic right gains momentum ahead of French presidential elections in April, Macron is on a mission to make an example of Britain, and to convince voters that France can impose serious costs on those who ditch the EU and disrespect hard-working French fishermen. It's a popular position for a leader facing a tighter-than-hoped-for race for re-election next year.
Macron also likely wants to make the point that France won't be pushed around by a British leader he regards as unserious. After a recent Australian decision to form a security partnership with the US and Britain – and to buy US rather than French submarines – surprised and embarrassed him personally, the French president likely wants to assert that he's no pushover and set a precedent for bigger post-Brexit negotiations to come.
Fish matter, but the real drama lies ahead when the UK tries to maneuver its way out of post-Brexit arrangements it previously committed to. When that happens, Johnson won't have just the French on his case.
Morocco makes a play for Western Sahara
Morocco and Spain have spent the past two weeks at loggerheads over Madrid allowing the leader of the independence movement for Western Sahara, a former Spanish territory claimed by Morocco, to get medical treatment for COVID in a Spanish hospital. Polisario Front chief Brahim Ghali has now left the country, but the Moroccans are still furious.
Indeed, Rabat's initial response was to open its border gates to allow a deluge of thousands of migrants to overwhelm the Spanish border in Ceuta, a Spanish enclave on the Moroccan coast. Although that crisis ended in a matter of days, the wider issue that caused it in the first place remains unresolved.
Why does Morocco care so much about this sparsely populated desert territory, and why is it now pushing so hard to gain full control of Western Sahara?
First, a bit of history. Western Sahara, long populated by nomadic tribes, was administered by Spain from 1884 until 1975. Morocco and the native Sahrawis, represented by the Polisario Front, later fought a bloody war that ended in a 1991 UN-backed ceasefire agreement which called for an independence referendum that Rabat has largely ignored. Since then, Western Sahara has been in limbo — Morocco now controls 80 percent of the territory, including the coastline, and the Sahrawis control a thin strip bordering Algeria and Mauritania.
But that small chunk of land is immensely important for the Moroccans because it's the main route for overland trade with the rest of Africa via Mauritania. Morocco's much longer border with regional rival Algeria, which backs the Polisario Front and hosts thousands of Sahrawi refugees, has been closed for almost 30 years.
Morocco also needs Western Sahara's minerals, mainly its phosphate rock riches. Including the disputed territory's estimated deposits — which the Moroccans are already mining in the areas they control — Morocco accounts for three-quarters of the world's reserves of this scarce mineral, used to make synthetic fertilizer for agriculture.
And then there's fish. A lot of fish. So much that Morocco is eager to share it with EU fishing vessels, for lucrative fees. But a wide-ranging trade agreement between Morocco and the European Union has been held up since 2018 because of a dispute over access to waters off Western Sahara. Moreover, if there's fish, perhaps there are also untapped offshore oil and gas.
Thank you, Donald Trump. During the last weeks of the Trump administration, the US became the first UN member state to recognize Morocco's claim over Western Sahara, reportedly in exchange for normalizing ties with Israel. Recognition by the world's most powerful nation was a huge win for Rabat, which now feels emboldened to test how hard it can push other countries to do the same, particularly Spain and the broader EU. And Morocco now seems to have the upper hand, as Turkey often does when it successfully weaponizes migrants to get what it wants from the Europeans.
The problem for Spain and the EU is that they need Morocco more than Morocco needs them. For Spain, Moroccan cooperation is crucial to stemming the flow of African migrants to its borders. The EU, for its part, is deeply concerned about those migrants using Spain as a springboard to enter other EU countries. Brussels also wants to sign a trade deal with Rabat that includes Western Saharan fisheries to offset fishing rights lost to Brexit.
Morocco is presumably happy to help protect the Spanish border, and let EU vessels fish in their waters, and get hard cash in return. But the money is not enough anymore. For Rabat, full sovereignty over Western Sahara is as much of an existential issue as illegal immigration is to Madrid and Brussels.
Looking ahead. Spain's current leftwing government can't afford another migrant crisis that'll give more ammunition to the anti-immigration, far-right Vox party. And the EU has learned its lesson from dealing with Turkey on refugees. Morocco's leverage over both means that Sahrawis' pursuit of self-determination is all but assured to take a backseat for the Europeans.
UK & France fight over fishing rights & why Scottish elections matter
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:
What's going on between the United Kingdom and France over fishing rights?
Yes, good question. Why on earth are they sending the Royal Navy to chase away some French fishermen from the island of Jersey? Fishing rights is very controversial. It was one of the key issues in the Brexit negotiations. Extremely divisive. Fishermen are fairly determined people but sending the Royal Navy to handle the French fishermen was somewhat excessive. I guess it played rather well with the English nationalists for Boris Johnson in the local elections, though.
How important are the Scottish elections for the future of the UK?
They are very important. If there is a solid pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, they will press for a new referendum. Will they get a new referendum? Well, sooner or later, I guess they will, the one way or the other. It might not be imminent. Will they win that referendum? Well, that's much too early to say, much too early to say. But it's going to be a very divisive issue for the United Kingdom. And they have a problem with Northern Ireland as well.
What We're Watching: French and Brits fight over fish, Nigeria's insecurity, Duterte cozies up to China
Paris-London face-off at sea: France and the UK are at loggerheads in the high seas this week over post-Brexit fishing access in Jersey, an island off the English Channel. Furious at regulations that they say makes it harder to fish in these lucrative waters, dozens of French fishing boats amassed near the Channel Island, threatening to block access to the port. In response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson deployed two naval vessels — a move critics say was an unnecessary escalation, and an attempt by the PM to flex his muscles and bolster the Tory vote ahead of Thursday's regional election. France, for its part, sent its own naval ship and threatened to cut off Jersey's electricity supply, 90 percent of which comes from French underwater cables. Fishing rights was one of the final sticking points of Brexit trade negotiations, an emotive political issue for many Britons who say that they got a subpar deal when the UK joined the European Economic Community in the 1970s. Though an UK-EU Brexit agreement was finally reached in December 2020, it's clear that there are still thorny issues that need to be resolved.
Nigeria's insecurity woes: Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has made tackling worsening insecurity in his country a political priority, but nothing seems to be making much of a difference: attacks and kidnappings by armed criminal gangs and Islamist militants have become a constant part of life in northern Nigeria, and have already claimed hundreds of lives this year alone. Buhari's new security chiefs, expected to bring fresh blood into an aging security apparatus, have so far failed to deliver on their promise to end the violence (including by Nigeria's often trigger-happy police against civilians). The situation has gotten so bad that members of the president's own party are now openly criticizing the leadership of Buhari, a former general who led a military junta that ruled Nigeria in the early 1980s before being elected as a civilian in 2015. Earlier this week, the armed forces came out in support of the president amid growing calls for Buhari to step down before his second term in office ends in two years time. But if the security situation continues to deteriorate, the generals could change their minds.
Is Duterte getting too cozy with China? Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has had a busy few days. This week alone, he has berated his top diplomat over an expletive-laden Twitter tirade against China, apologized for getting vaccinated with a Chinese-made COVID vaccine that hasn't yet been approved for domestic use in the Philippines, and said the 2016 arbitration ruling in favor of his country's claims in the South China Sea is not worth the paper it's written on. While Duterte cozying up to China's Xi Jinping is nothing new, this might be starting to have political consequences for him as support for China has plummeted among the Filipino electorate. While Duterte's popularity has not been tested in a major nationwide survey since October 2020, when it hit a whopping 93 percent, if current trends continue, the incumbent may have a hard time in next year's presidential election. Since he can't run for a second term, Duterte's allies want him to be a candidate for VP alongside his daughter so the family can stay in power. But will Duterte's infatuation with China ruin his chances?
China has deployed a huge flotilla of "fishing" vessels to intimidate the Philippines in the South China Sea. It's a major escalation of Beijing using its "little blue men" militia to do the navy's dirty work in these contested waters.
China makes a big move in the South China Sea
The Philippines on Monday demanded China withdraw a massive fishing fleet — presumably commanded by the Chinese navy — from waters that Manila has exclusive economic rights over in the South China Sea. Beijing, unsurprisingly, denied any involvement. But there's more to the latest milestone in China's increasingly aggressive strategy to assert its claims in one of the world's most disputed waterways.
"Little blue men." One of China's preferred tactics to win control of the South China Sea without a fight is by deploying its armed maritime militia to do the dirty work for its navy under the guise of "fishing." Their members have been dubbed China's "little blue men" because their role is similar to that of Vladimir Putin's famous "little green men," the Russian soldiers without official insignias who invaded eastern Ukraine on behalf of Moscow in 2014.
Having members of the Chinese navy masquerade as fisherfolk in the South China Sea is nothing new. What's different this time is the sheer scale of the flotilla: a whopping 220 vessels, no match for the ill-equipped Philippine navy and coast guard, not to mention the local fishing boats who have long complained of China chasing them out of their own waters.
China is winning in the South China Sea. For decades, China has claimed indisputable maritime rights to almost the entire South China Sea, the main commercial and navigation gateway to East Asia. About one-third of global shipping passes through these waters, which are also believed to be immensely rich in fisheries and (largely untapped) hydrocarbons. That's why the Chinese will do whatever it takes to control these waters, parts of which are also claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
As China's power has risen in recent years, so too has Beijing's determination to assert its dominance over the South China Sea. All attempts by other claimants and the US navy to challenge its provocative actions — such as building military facilities on artificial islands, disrupting freedom of navigation operations, and depleting local fish stocks — have all failed to deter China.
The US, the only individual nation with the military muscle to pose a threat to China, is no longer a major player in the dispute. Last summer, Washington recognized a 2016 international ruling — in response to a lawsuit filed by the Philippines — that struck down China's sovereignty claims (Beijing rejects the verdict). But both sides know that Americans have little appetite to go to war with China, let alone over a body of water halfway around the world.
Duterte and China. The latest incident with China in the South China Sea has put Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in a bind. The otherwise tough-talking leader is notorious for his soft-spoken deference towards China, arguing that the Philippines is too weak to risk a confrontation with such a mighty rival.
Many Filipinos who view China with growing distrust oppose Duterte's perceived kowtowing to Beijing in exchange for Chinese investment to fix the country's dilapidated infrastructure. The promise of that much-needed cash explains his reluctance to raise the 2016 ruling with Beijing, and consent to jointly explore for oil and gas in disputed areas.
But this time Duterte has at least two reasons to show he's not Xi Jinping's puppet. Although his personal approval ratings remain high, the government has faced strong criticism for its dismal pandemic response, and for delaying the country's vaccine rollout by prioritizing Chinese-made COVID vaccines over others. Also, relations with China will likely become a major campaign issue in the May 2022 election (where Duterte himself could be on the ballot as a candidate for vice president to skirt the presidential one-term limit).
What happens next? The ailing Philippine economy is so dependent on Chinese trade that it seems unlikely Duterte will take any significant action to counter Beijing's latest swipe, no matter the political risk. And with Washington having more pressing issues to sort out with Beijing these days, China's "little blue men" are set to rule the waves in the South China Sea.