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Former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov talk in December 2023. Both men now face ICC warrants for alleged war crimes.
Hard Numbers: ICC issues Russian warrants, Antelopes move en masse, Medical evacuations needed from Gaza, Vietnam’s expensive bean, Targeting gun violence, 'Squad' member ousted
2: The ICC on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for two key Russian military officials, former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The men stand accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity for their alleged involvement in strikes against Ukraine. Russia responded to the charges, calling them “null and void” – and, like Vladimir Putin, neither is expected to make the trip to The Hague anytime soon.
6 million: South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is now home to the world’s largest mammal migration, with a new aerial wildlife survey showing roughly six million antelopes on the move. While the country is struggling amid a devastating civil war, the antelopes have become a source of national pride, and President Salvador Kiri Mayardit hopes totransform the “wildlife sector into a sustainable tourism industry.”
2,000: The World Health Organization says the closure of the Rafah crossing on the Gaza-Egypt border means at least 2,000 patients in need of medical evacuation have been left stranded. The crossing, closed amid Israel’s military operation in Rafah last month, is crucial for humanitarian aid distribution and evacuations, and its reopening is a point of concern in talks between US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials.
16: Will the price of espresso soon jolt you awake more than the coffee? Vietnam, the world’s second-biggest coffee producer, isexperiencing one of its worst droughts in years, which is expected to cause up to a 16% drop in coffee bean production. But so far, coffee bean inflation is hovering around just 1.6% in the EU – so no jitters yet. Vietnamese farmers are enjoying the price surge and are optimistic that new farming practices can help manage the heat wave.
30: US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued an advisory on Tuesdaydeclaring gun violence a public health crisis because the growing number of suicides and homicides caused gun-related deaths to reach a 30-year high in 2021. Murthy referred to the devastating mental and physical toll that gun violence has had on US communities and called for stricter gun regulation and the banning of automatic rifles.
14.5 million: Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman on Tuesday was defeated in the most expensive House primary in US history. Bowman, a progressive and member of the "Squad," lost to moderate George Latimer in New York's 16th Congressional District in a race that put a spotlight on the Democratic party's deep divisions over Israel and the war in Gaza. Bowman has been a fierce critic of Israel and has faced allegations of antisemitism in the process. AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying group, spent roughly $14.5 million on ads — via its PAC, United Democracy Project — in an effort to unseat Bowman.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the Russian Land Forces Oleg Salyukov attend a military parade on Victory Day, in Moscow, on May 9, 2024.
How high school explains Putin’s reshuffle
One way to look at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to replace long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with career economist Andrey Belousov is this: Since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s nerds have performed better than his jocks.
The jocks: Right from the start, Russia’s generals and spies – poorly prepared, badly informed, and deeply corrupt – screwed up what was meant to be a short victorious war. Two years later, the locker room bully clique continues to grind, slowly and destructively, across Ukraine, but that’s largely because Russia’s manpower is virtually unlimited while the West’s support for Ukraine is not. Despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken’ssurprise visit to Kyiv today to tell President Volodymyr Zelensky military aid is "now on its way,” there's no doubt the recent slowdown in US support, thanks to months of congressional infighting, has exacerbated Ukraine’s challenges on the battlefield.
The nerds: The stars of math class, meanwhile – led by Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov – have done the seemingly impossible: They kept the Russian economy afloat despite crippling Western financial sanctions. They held the line as the “War Machine” became central to the economy.
Now Putin, settling in for a forever war against the West, wants to ensure it’s economically sustainable. His spokesman even warned of the danger of a “1980s” situation, when overspending on the quagmire in Afghanistan and the arms race with Washington helped to bring down the USSR.
To avoid a similar fate, Putin is now banking on a little nerd power at the barracks.
FILE PHOTO: Participants, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, attend a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 79th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2024.
Putin’s cabinet shakeup: Does it signal a new approach in Ukraine?
Shoigu will transition to become secretary of Russia's national security council, replacing Nikolai Patrushev. Andrei Belousov, currently deputy prime minister with a background in economics but no military experience, has been proposed as the new defense minister.
Rather than firing Shoigu, Putin has offered his longtime ally a soft landing, says Eurasia Group analyst Alex Brideau. Brideau says the move is “a reflection that Putin thought he needed a change at defense.” But rather than an outright snub, it’s also an example, he says, of how rarely Putin outright fires those who have demonstrated long-term loyalty.
According to Kremlin press spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the appointment of Belousov emphasizes the need for “innovation” in the role. Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence colonel and NATO planner, believes that the shuffle allows Putin “to keep Shoigu on side,” while bringing in a civilian better able to deal withthe impact of corruption in the Defence Ministry. Others have described the shift as a sign that Putin wants to put the war in Ukraine on an “economically sustainable footing” – something an economist like Belousov might be better positioned to do.Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov inspects the construction of apartment blocks in Mariupol, Russian-controlled Ukraine, in this October 2022 image.
Shocked! Russian deputy defense minister jailed for graft
Russian authorities this week detained a prominent deputy defense minister on corruption charges. Timur Ivanov, a long-standing close ally of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, oversaw a wide variety of construction and logistics projects for the Russian armed forces, including in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
Anti-corruption activists, including the outfit of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, had long focused on Ivanov’s lavish lifestyle. This is the highest-profile corruption takedown since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Now, if you are shocked – shocked! – that there’s corruption in Russian military contracting, we’ve got news for you: Corruption is rife in the Russian government. Getting busted is usually less about a sudden universal respect for transparency, and more about turf battles within the Russian elite.
Is Shoigu in trouble? Not yet, but note two things. One, he’s heard lots of criticism from pro-war hawks who accuse him of corruption and incompetence in his military strategy. The most prominent of them, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is no longer among the living, but the grumblings continue. Second, in just a few weeks, Vladimir Putin will be reinaugurated and will have to name a new cabinet. If Shoigu really is in any trouble, that’s when it will become clear.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu chairs a meeting with the leadership of the Armed Forces in Moscow, on July 3, 2023.
Russia: The “Scumbag” speaks!
Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday made his first public comments about the mutiny that mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin — who had repeatedly called him a “scumbag” — led against him 10 days ago.
In a terse statement that he read from a piece of paper during a broader meeting of military personnel, Shoigu said the mutiny had failed because rank-and-file soldiers had “courageously and selflessly carried out the tasks assigned to them.”
Shoigu’s appearance and statement seem to make clear that Putin isn’t planning on swapping out his Defense Ministry leadership anytime soon. But it’s worth noting — again, as Prigozhin himself did — that Putin's main issue isn’t so much disloyalty as it is incompetence: His war has been poorly planned and clumsily executed from the start, something that Prigozhin made a point of highlighting in ways that are still thorny for the Kremlin.
In other news, the Levada Center on Monday released a poll on Russians’ views of the mutiny. The big winners were the Armed Forces, whose image improved among 30% of Russians, and Putin, who looked better to nearly 20%. Shoigu, meanwhile, took a hit in the eyes of nearly 30% of respondents, second only to Prigozhin, who lost the affection of 36%.
Lastly, there is still no word on the whereabouts of Prigozhin-pal Sergei Surovikin, a top Russian military official known as “General Armageddon.” There were reports late last week that he had been detained, just hours after The New York Times cited US intel officials to the effect that Surovikin was believed to have had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s mutiny attempt.